Nifty: Daily Price Analysis

[rrmhatre72]

Agree with you ST.

Another 50 -60 points move from this point looks very much possible. But beyond that, things would only get clear as time progresses. Such is the predicament of the market. Ironically, this is also something traders enjoy the most.

Tc

Hi ST/ Raunak,

Here is my thought.
I am long in NF @5400 Aug.
It is quite possible that market may move up... may be 50-60point...may be 100points.....
I am thinking to sell NF of Sept series say @5430.
This will help me in locking 30points for sure.
If market moves upward I will square off by long ~5470 & will hold only short.
I know this will be naked short & if market keeps on moving up then I can hold it till 5500(with 30points gain as indicated above)
If it really start coming down then I will be gaining into it.
If it start falling down instead of going up still my 30points are blocked.
Once down trend it confirmed... I will sqaure of long position & will hold only short position.

 

[simple_trader]

Hi ST/ Raunak,

Here is my thought.
I am long in NF @5400 Aug.
It is quite possible that market may move up... may be 50-60point...may be 100points.....
I am thinking to sell NF of Sept series say @5430.
This will help me in locking 30points for sure.
If market moves upward I will square off by long ~5470 & will hold only short.
I know this will be naked short & if market keeps on moving up then I can hold it till 5500(with 30points gain as indicated above)
If it really start coming down then I will be gaining into it.
If it start falling down instead of going up still my 30points are blocked.
Once down trend it confirmed... I will sqaure of long position & will hold only short position.

What will you do in case NF does not cross 5430 today and falls to 5380-90 range towards the close?

 

[simple_trader]

Hi ST/ Raunak,

Here is my thought.
I am long in NF @5400 Aug.
It is quite possible that market may move up... may be 50-60point...may be 100points.....
I am thinking to sell NF of Sept series say @5430.
This will help me in locking 30points for sure.
If market moves upward I will square off by long ~5470 & will hold only short.
I know this will be naked short & if market keeps on moving up then I can hold it till 5500(with 30points gain as indicated above)
If it really start coming down then I will be gaining into it.
If it start falling down instead of going up still my 30points are blocked.
Once down trend it confirmed... I will sqaure of long position & will hold only short position.

If I am holding your position, then I would hedge at 5420 and open up the hedge if NF goes to 5380 today. Other wise will wait for appropriate time to open up the hedge.

 

[rrmhatre72]

What will you do in case NF does not cross 5430 today and falls to 5380-90 range towards the close?

hi ST,

I wanted to check my logic. is it correct for Hedging?
I am of opinion market will at least touch it's recent high of ~5470 before going down.
But it will go down for sure. if it stsrts going down from here only then I hould be in the game hence I was proposing above logic.
Bottomline: I am not clear on trend at this moment & want to hold positions both the way. Is this correct way? Or is there any other better way?

Anyway Nifty is above 5430.

Also I had kept stop loss of 5409 for my long position in case market is coming down.

 

[simple_trader]

hi ST,

I wanted to check my logic. is it correct for Hedging?
I am of opinion market will at least touch it's recent high of ~5470 before going down.
But it will go down for sure. if it stsrts going down from here only then I hould be in the game hence I was proposing above logic.
Bottomline: I am not clear on trend at this moment & want to hold positions both the way. Is this correct way? Or is there any other better way?

Anyway Nifty is above 5430.

Also I had kept stop loss of 5409 for my long position in case market is coming down.

Your logic is right. Only thing, I am thinking in other way, if we go down a bit and consolidate without going below Friday's low, then I wish to exit short and hold long for 5500 around. You are thinking in other way around.

 

[simple_trader]

These are my views and analysis for next a few days of the new series (5-6 days). Do not have much change with my last view though.

- Over all I think NIFTY has more up side (5500-5550 range) and if it has to fall, we have not seen any price action which suggests we are headed for bigger for as yet. Seems to be more of price consolidation.

- 5300 PUT has highest OI and NF gap, hence proper support is at 5300 for now.

- Over all PUTs are adding more OI than calls, confirming some bullishness.

- However, I guess after long time, in this series PUTs are not over priced. This should be some point interesting for option buyer.

- Better not to be heavily long for this (possible) last up move. It can always reverse from some level, but it is to be patient for shorting.

Happy Trading

Just one point to add here - if we open as per SGX NF today and if we manage to trade above 5400 NF whole day today, then I think NF will touch 5500 this week. In anyone carries long, can maintain some trailing SL and watch a bit how things develop.

Happy trading!

It may a bit early to write this, I think we may see a good bull trap soon. The bigger rally from 4800, may get terminated somewhere between 5500-5550. My personal expectation is that we would see an extended correction period in our market with a projection of 4450 NIFTY level. There are enough signs of bearishness today. Midcap mania, people are getting trapped with shorts etc. Better to be extremely careful in playing long here on.

As stated earlier, if you wish to participate in bearishness view, try to accumulate NIFTY put between 5500-5550. Do not enter early! Play as per your risk taking ability.

Happy Trading!

 

[SwingKing]

It may a bit early to write this, I think we may see a good bull trap soon. The bigger rally from 4800, may get terminated somewhere between 5500-5550. My personal expectation is that we would see an extended correction period in our market with a projection of 4450 NIFTY level. There are enough signs of bearishness today. Midcap mania, people are getting trapped with shorts etc. Better to be extremely careful in playing long here on.

As stated earlier, if you wish to participate in bearishness view, try to accumulate NIFTY put between 5500-5550. Do not enter early! Play as per your risk taking ability.

Happy Trading!

Agree to you ST.

However, we also need to discount two very important things.

1. During the entire run up, two major sectors did not participate in the rally. The current rally which we are witnessing is seeing participation by these sectors; Telecom and Real Estate. Usually sector rotation is the name of the game. But this time things are a bit different. Banks and Auto which led the previous rally are showing more strength rather than slowing down and now that Telecom and Real Estate have begun participation, there is simultaneous strength being witnessed across the board.

2. Futures and options data is suggesting a range shift in the index. This data can change soon, but as of now, the range is shifting from 5400 - 5600. It will be seemingly difficult to predict the timing of the correction. This scenario is similar to what happened in 2003. Markets had run up since may and everyone expected a correction. Correction finally came in January 2004!! Am not saying this time it would be similar, but my point is that this also remains a distinct possibility.

When the markets will reverse, we will have ample time to build positions.

Tc

 

[blackberry]

Experts see Nifty hovering below 5500 till year end-Moneycontrol HeadLine.

Now surely it will cross 5500.

 

[aryan.]

Experts see Nifty hovering below 5500 till year end-Moneycontrol HeadLine.

Now surely it will cross 5500.

Dont blindly follow those moneycontrol experts.

 

[simple_trader]

These are my views and analysis for next a few days (next week or so) -

- Still we have not seen any reversal sign. Looks more like consolidation. To make reversal, we would see a upside blow out at least in intraday. So as long as NF is above 5400, its a positive sign and we can move 5500-5550.

- However I feel it is somewhat risky to do long now on, and first sign of bearishness can come if market closes below 5400 for a couple of days.

- Better to be patient for being short in the market. My liking is 5500-5550 range or with appropriate sign of reversal.


Happy Trading