Nifty Entry ,Exit ,Target levels with Median Line Charts Part 2

[timepass]

Paras_123, Kavima is using Andrew's Pitchfork and Median lines for her analysis. You will find links to this strategy in her signature.

 

[paras_123]

Paras_123, Kavima is using Andrew's Pitchfork and Median lines for her analysis. You will find links to this strategy in her signature.

I know TP... but i was asking if any other logic she has added in case of reversal, using wave or Fib

Thanks!
Paras

 

[Kavima]

Hi Paras

To identify Trend reversals in median line method,is similar to basic concepts in TA..ie HH,HL,LH,LL pivots ,and as per time frame we judge how the trend is.The reversal zones of a particular swing will be when the price reaches the upper and lower ends of the median line set , what is noted as UMLH and LMLH.However, the price action on reaching these zones will be the trigger to initiate a trade in the reverse direction.

In Fib retracements, the strength of a swing direction is assessed as to how much it retraces as per Fib ratios.Lesser pullbacks , probability of trend continuation is present.But when the move is occurring, to assess where it can reverse , whether 23.6,38.2,61.8.76.4 % , Median lines do give a direction while using it in conjunction with Fib R %.The main rule which states ,the probability that price will move towards the ML is 80 % .So within a channel, where price moves towards the Median line, fib R % projected on to the ML roughly gives an idea where it can reach.The point where the price meets the median line is where , the price action needs to be watched.

Coming to comparing with Elliot waves, here there is no counting of waves or rules about wave length like W1,W2,W3 ,corrective waves etc etc....However, the number of pivots are counted and the reversal probability are greater after a count of 5,7,9,11 pivots.The Swing is basically projected with the previous two pivots using a median line set, with the hypothesis
that the swing will meet the ML 80 % of the time.When it does not meet the ML, and moves out of the channel,then it is because the trend of the earlier swing continues.

My approach is combining Median lines,Channel lines and Price action with some basic self designed rules.Of course all the other TA stuff one accumulates over the years with Elliot waves , Fib ratios,Moving Averages,Patterns etc also influence decisions.It is a discretionary method where because it is not a mechanical system,emotions can overrule many times in decisions,which can be tough on the account.But the method, based on a way of thinking offers a lot of creative stimulation and makes this journey more interesting.Hopefully it should translate to better profits too.....:thumb:

 

[josh1]

Hi Paras

To identify Trend reversals in median line method,is similar to basic concepts in TA..ie HH,HL,LH,LL pivots ,and as per time frame we judge how the trend is.The reversal zones of a particular swing will be when the price reaches the upper and lower ends of the median line set , what is noted as UMLH and LMLH.However, the price action on reaching these zones will be the trigger to initiate a trade in the reverse direction.

In Fib retracements, the strength of a swing direction is assessed as to how much it retraces as per Fib ratios.Lesser pullbacks , probability of trend continuation is present.But when the move is occurring, to assess where it can reverse , whether 23.6,38.2,61.8.76.4 % , Median lines do give a direction while using it in conjunction with Fib R %.The main rule which states ,the probability that price will move towards the ML is 80 % .So within a channel, where price moves towards the Median line, fib R % projected on to the ML roughly gives an idea where it can reach.The point where the price meets the median line is where , the price action needs to be watched.

Coming to comparing with Elliot waves, here there is no counting of waves or rules about wave length like W1,W2,W3 ,corrective waves etc etc....However, the number of pivots are counted and the reversal probability are greater after a count of 5,7,9,11 pivots.The Swing is basically projected with the previous two pivots using a median line set, with the hypotheses that the swing will meet the ML 80 % of the time.When it does not meet the ML, and moves out of the channel,then it is because the trend of the earlier swing continues.

My approach is combining Median lines,Channel lines and Price action with some basic self designed rules.Of course all the other TA stuff one accumulates over the years with Elliot waves , Fib ratios,Moving Averages,Patterns etc also influence decisions.It is a discretionary method where because it is not a mechanical system,emotions can overrule many times in decisions,which can be tough on the account.But the method, based on a way of thinking offers a lot of creative stimulation and makes this journey more interesting.Hopefully it should translate to better profits too.....:thumb:

Excellent Synopsis. Your method helps in controlling emotions to a large extent. It also helps in setting proper Stop Loss.

regards

 

[Kavima]

1.02.2013 Friday

Intraday chart with a study on trade entries and exits....

 

[Kavima]

1.02.2013 Friday

60 minChart update

Price did not move up and no positive close bar.Breakdown has reached the ML of the Blue PF drawn from the prev 2 swings.A reversal zone to watch how price reacts...!

 

[Kavima]

1.02.2013 Friday

EOD 60 min updated

Daily chart upto 31.1.2013

Price is at a resistance level at the magenta UMLH.If the downswing halts at 5950 zone, it will still be in the supporting TL / channel for the uptrend to continue .When it moves out of the green channel,next level supports are at 5800 zone.

 

[paras_123]

Hi kavima,

Could not see your post the next day as was very busy in office
Thanks for explaining,median lines and its reversal.

As explained in last post, if you see, w2, w4 (correction wave) followed by a low at 6040 and a registered high 6101. low was between w2 and w4 and after that 6111 and low was 6042(same day), not violating the previous low. and once 40 was cut, selling could be initiated with current High registered as SL, 6111.2.

More or less, i read historical data and then interpret graph, as time taken to achieve a target. How many shares exchanged, and other things, to confirm my position.

One more thing i have in mind, is we have multiple threads for Nifty, it is better if we have one thread. with different analysis, it would make more sense to see interpretation and trend analysis with targets.

- Paras

 

[paras_123]

Hi a1b1trader, as you say.
.....

 

[a1b1trader]

Please Paras, I have a request to you, do no take it otherwise.

Though levels posted by you are/may be good but please do not disturb the study of APF, by posting all these here. If you have anything to post as per APF do post here, but please not for levels.

For levels please open a new thread or continue with your own/old thread.

Thanks