Nifty Entry ,Exit ,Target levels with Median Line Charts

[4xpipcounter]

It seems your level to the upside matches rather nicely with mine at 4935.

One thing I've noticed about your pitchforks is that you do not require them to be drawn from a peak or a dip, but from any swing low/high.
Do you find them just as effective when not drawn from a peak or dip?

25.11.2011_Friday

Yesterday's momentum did not continue and it was a corrective move today attempting to go past yesterday's high and failed.If the price can hold at 4660 zone which falls at 61.8% , it can move up atleast till 4850-4920.Monday's action will show the way!!

 

[Kavima]

hi 4x pip
good to see u back here

PF's provide a good boundary when drawn from any three significant reversal points .So within a trend, we can use pullbacks to identify three pivots and chart whether the trend is continuing or a reversal is possible.Of course different TF's , a pivot in a smaller TF one can be just a smaller move / bar in a larger timeframe. Pivots in the context of PF's are identified where an important reversal has taken place and can be identified after price moves / breaks out of the trendline connecting highs / lows in the the previous down / up swing .Assuming there could be a change in trend the price move is observed for further confirmation using the supports formed within the PF.

In smaller TF's, we can work on targets for smaller period of 1 -2 days, which I do with 5 min charts .The smaller moves, highs , lows are easily visualised with smaller time frames for intraday trades.
In Median Lines / Pitchforks, the way I look at it , is a method where we are attempting to pick out a bottom / top , and it's actually planning a trade against the trend .That's where support / resistances at the median line parallels point out where the previous wave is losing out on energy and strength.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Kavima, rest assured, I never left here.
I am one of your silent readers. You are the pitchfork pro, so I just come to class, take a seat, and pay attention.

Your levels to the upside measure up rather nicely with mine, as you see R in the mid 4900's. It just shows you can have diverse methodologies and still come up with the same levels<>.

Is Nifty the only market you follow? I'm assuming it is, because it seems it is quite time consuming to draw all the forks, then keep on top of where the new ones should be.

hi 4x pip
good to see u back here

PF's provide a good boundary when drawn from any three significant reversal points .So within a trend, we can use pullbacks to identify three pivots and chart whether the trend is continuing or a reversal is possible.Of course different TF's , a pivot in a smaller TF one can be just a smaller move / bar in a larger timeframe. Pivots in the context of PF's are identified where an important reversal has taken place and can be identified after price moves / breaks out of the trendline connecting highs / lows in the the previous down / up swing .Assuming there could be a change in trend the price move is observed for further confirmation using the supports formed within the PF.

In smaller TF's, we can work on targets for smaller period of 1 -2 days, which I do with 5 min charts .The smaller moves, highs , lows are easily visualised with smaller time frames for intraday trades.
In Median Lines / Pitchforks, the way I look at it , is a method where we are attempting to pick out a bottom / top , and it's actually planning a trade against the trend .That's where support / resistances at the median line parallels point out where the previous wave is losing out on energy and strength.

 

[murthyavr]

Kavima,

If you find time, can you please explain how the three pivots are to be selected
for construction of the pitchfork?

I think the selection of the three pivots is very important to have realistic levels.
And the selection assumes a significant role, as we keep going towards lower timeframes.

We look forward to hearing from you.

 

[trade4joisar]

It seems your level to the upside matches rather nicely with mine at 4935.

One thing I've noticed about your pitchforks is that you do not require them to be drawn from a peak or a dip, but from any swing low/high.
Do you find them just as effective when not drawn from a peak or dip?

So can we treat 4935 as a double top ?

 

[4xpipcounter]

T4J, I don't want to divert Kavima's thread with my thoughts concerning the peak. I will post my personal thoughts on the market in my thread after I complete my Weekly Forecast.
He has an excellent thread on the pitchfork methodology, which is why I want to keep my personal thoughts with regards to my methodology out of it.
Thanks T4J. I hope you understand.

So can we treat 4935 as a double top ?

 

[Kavima]

28.11.2011 Monday

60 min chart

4660-70 levels were held and price gapped up and had a good price rally of 3 % today...
Higher end resistances are 4906 / 4915 / 4986 .
If this is a pullback rally these are the resistances where the reversal can happen as the downtrend is still not cleared.
Assuming if an Upmove has started and the bottom has been done it will still have to be tested again , so price will reverse at these resistance levels , atleast a sideways corrective move.
Another angle which I have looked at it is the Action Reaction theory basis.
The current set of warning lines for the pitchfork drawn from the start of the downtrend has been supporting and resisting price very well.Projecting an equal range movement of two warning line channels above the bottom, the 4900 zone is a possible resistance zone.
Another observation is after a long fall, price pulls back towards 50 sma , it moves to an almost equal move of price above it and then reverses.This could be for retesting the earlier bottom.

Daily Chart

Drawn the regular Median Line / Pitchfork and the schiff median line /Pitchfork.The junction of the upsloping schiff median line parallel and the downsloping LMLH is an energy point to which price can be attracted ...(Resistance zone.). When price moves out of a channel support it will retest the channel line which it passed through.This falls near 4920-4950 zone in the chart.

 

[Kavima]

29.11.2011 Tuesday

It was a disappointing day,as after the rally yesterday, a follow up upmove was expected atleast till 4900 zone , but the open itself was with a big bang but on the downside. Assuming it is a 4th wave from the recent major low, it can close near the wave 1 high to conform with a simple EW count.This falls within the trigger line zone from the magenta PF from recent swing pivots.
So two probable moves for tommorrow.
1.Price supports at 4770 area and turns up towards the ML resistance.
- Morning session, if we have a hammer bar at 4770 zone , WRB crossing the previous bar with the recent low, a long can be entered.
2.Price breaks down through 4770 support line.
- this if it happens in the later session, it would be more convincing for a greater downmove, as price would have earlier attempted to climb up and then unable to do so, breaks down the 4770 area.

It looks like we're going to see a complex correction with lot of smaller waves moving up and down, and guaging the trend to trade in the short term is going to be difficult due to whipsaws till the trend can be confirmed.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Kavima, I think the market is headed higher, but in the correctional mode only. I think it is just taking a breather after the very strong move it just made.

29.11.2011 Tuesday

It was a disappointing day,as after the rally yesterday, a follow up upmove was expected atleast till 4900 zone , but the open itself was with a big bang but on the downside. Assuming it is a 4th wave from the recent major low, it can close near the wave 1 high to conform with a simple EW count.This falls within the trigger line zone from the magenta PF from recent swing pivots.
So two probable moves for tommorrow.
1.Price supports at 4770 area and turns up towards the ML resistance.
- Morning session, if we have a hammer bar at 4770 zone , WRB crossing the previous bar with the recent low, a long can be entered.
2.Price breaks down through 4770 support line.
- this if it happens in the later session, it would be more convincing for a greater downmove, as price would have earlier attempted to climb up and then unable to do so, breaks down the 4770 area.

It looks like we're going to see a complex correction with lot of smaller waves moving up and down, and guaging the trend to trade in the short term is going to be difficult due to whipsaws till the trend can be confirmed.

 

[timepass]

Kavima, I think the market is headed higher, but in the correctional mode only. I think it is just taking a breather after the very strong move it just made.

eh.. you mean the bigger bulls are shaking out the smaller bulls ?? Or maybe giving the bears a chance to get out ?? Not tomorrow, I think. Maybe Kavima should hold Thursday as his turn date.