Paul..it's always a pleasure to interact with You.I'm open to any discussions regarding ML with anybody here and definitely give my inputs.As I said it's more a passion in trying to unravel something new everyday in this field.Like u say, though I wouldnt know about currencies, I can check out a chart based on the principles of this method.
Attaching yr chart with some revisions with my notations.
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What I see is a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.Taking the three important swing high / low pivots and drawn a PF.(If u noticed my 2nd pivot is different from yrs as i've taken the lowest point of the swing).Currently a retracement is on and reached the UMLH.The bar bodies have been progressively decreasing , so expecting resistance at this point will be the first conclusion.The next 2 / few bars will have to be completed to take a decision.
Scene 1: Price can move beyond the UMLH till the downsloping resistance line also called as Trigger line which contains the downtrend.This line should give resistance and price will be expected to test the UMLH before moving up.
Scene 2:ie if next bar is a red bar making a lower low than the previous bar, i would wait for a retracement in the subsequent bar to enter a short.The price will be expected to retest the earlier low.If this minor swing down moves away from the yellowML, making a double bottom formation then a long will be attempted.Of course, if the support does not hold, then breakdown / downtrend continues and targets towards the yellow ML will be planned.
Let's say the upper portion of the fork is broken:
1. Are you now looking for a point to redraw an UP pitchfork in this TF?
I can draw a temp PF ( as the reversal point / low is still not confirmed with the recent 2 lows/ 1 high.Just chk out this chart with the temp PF drawn.The LMLH of new PF should provide support or else the reversal probability is negated.
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2. Would you still use the current one as support? The reason I asked that is that with TL's there is always a pull back to the point it broke the TL, then the trend continues.
Yes, price does test the breakout points often and they give a good entry point.here the UMLH will act as the line where price may retest and then continue the trend
3. Could you anticipate a strong candle o break that upper line?
Looking at the last candle maybe not.Next candle / 2 candles should help.