NIFTY FIFTY

[srisara]

clueless,

when a consolidated effort is put to bring the market down and then to take it up, u can see such charts.

so, its a way to scare away the new bulls and consolidate your position in the market.

All, the new bulls who would have entered, would have sold like anything to get out.

I was holding today, a bit stubornly.

Satya

 

[AMITBE]

Coluld never really get to 3370 finally, and that's ok in these times with a long weekend coming on.

It's a good idea to rummage through the bits and pieces of a week like this.

The downside is still not fully clear. This has been the first week after many when we've seen a pullback, of almost a hundred points week on week.
It's early to say if this is going to lead to further shakeouts, or it's been a pruning down in passing. We are far from making lower lows yet.

For today, that the Nifty closed with a recovery in progress on a well fought out session is a decent enough sign.
A hundred points push to the down from the day's high would normally be enough to squeeze the bulls out of the ring.
But not so, looking at the nearly ninety points charge from the day's low.

As for the major levels being written of lately, 3361-3345-3329 that remained untouched till this morning, go their due salutations...and didn't quite get blown away for all the adulation.
The return charge took these levels back and more, and the end came bang on to 3345.

Numbers are all we have in this game, and the way these numbers panned out today, speaks of underlying strength in no uncertain terms.

The intraday chart is attached...it's quite interesting.

Have a nice long one all!

Hi Amit,

indeed a very interesting intraday chart. Being a noob, its one of my first instances i have seen such a neat down trend line and could we call the bottom half a reverse head and shoulder? and again a bit of a neat recovery attempt.

With so many things going wrong, the only good thing was to see the chart form!!

cls

Hi clueless, yes this is a rare and an interesting chart.
The levels given by me each day are basically levels of conflict, and today as seen in the falling trendline, each mark was a bounce back to a previous higher mark. I've seen this before, but rarely. For the rest the levels played out quite true.
The trendlines too kept the symmetry as can be seen at the point where the falling trendline finally gives support to the pullback near the bottom, and later the first rising trendline pushes against the peaking price line (arrow marks).
It's a rare kind of a chart for all the details in it...the reason I uploaded it.

The market is very nervous, yet resilient with all the money waiting around. It doesn't take much of a push in either direction to cause this kind of extreme volatility.

And yes, as noted by you, there is some semblence of a reverse H&S (circled) at the base of the fall, as the various conditions have been met.

Cheers.

 

[srisara]

And yes, as noted by you, there is some semblence of a reverse H&S (circled) at the base of the fall, as the various conditions have been met.
Cheers.

In that case Amit, then 3345-50 shall become a good support for NIFTY in the future, if they are taken out next week?


Satya

 

[SGM]

clueless,

when a consolidated effort is put to bring the market down and then to take it up, u can see such charts.

so, its a way to scare away the new bulls and consolidate your position in the market.

All, the new bulls who would have entered, would have sold like anything to get out.

I was holding today, a bit stubornly.

Satya

Hi Satya,
I guess this kind of conviction comes with experiance. But for newbies like me, a stop is a stop. I guess for the time being its wait and watch for me.
Regards
Sanjay Mehta

 

[AMITBE]

We are getting into a most crucial day of a critical week at the markets. Today should pitch up the guidance for what lies immediately ahead.
In the immediate term it does appear that bull-bear pressure is evenly poised, where in the bigger frame Im still going with the bulls: Just as lower levels are frequently tested in TA readings, peaks too are revisited. One must not lose sight of this fact.
To add to this, with a couple of majors coming out with reasonably good numbers, there is just no calling for a panic sellout at this point.
India Inc. appears to be right on track.

The drop back a few sessions ago from 3555 area was just too abrupt.
A volatile up-down withdrawal from the higher reaches would have given better credence to a technically corrective move.

While certain crucial technical levels are still being tested and examined, whether from Fibonacci/Elliott perspective or the number series/turning points that I do here, the fundamental fact is that this sharply corrective phase has been triggered by factors other than technicals. Over bought indicators dont mean a thing under many circumstances.

However, to be very guarded from extreme volatility, and to try and prune down positions at every opportunity is the most sensible way to go ahead at this point.
Thats pretty much it.

Support line is 3339-3336-3331-3327-3323-3319. 3319 is critical to hold. Then 3305-3301-3296.
Some important levels further below are 3282-3276-3271-3267.

To the up the line is 3348-3351-3354-3358-3362-3366-3370-3375-3381-3384-3389-3393.
Some strong levels are 3400-3405-3409.

All the above are as of now, and will review later.

 

[AMITBE]

Support line is 3339-3336-3331-3327-3323-3319. 3319 is critical to hold. Then 3305-3301-3296.
Some important levels further below are 3282-3276-3271-3267.

To the up the line is 3348-3351-3354-3358-3362-3366-3370-3375-3381-3384-3389-3393.
Some strong levels are 3400-3405-3409.

All the above are as of now, and will review later.

Above 3409, the levels are dense still, all the way to 3414-3418-3422...should the action want to move about here.

 

[srisara]

Amit,

looks like 3395 and 3400 are going to be heavy resistance points. NIFTY struggling to hold?

Satya

 

[AMITBE]

Amit,

looks like 3395 and 3400 are going to be heavy resistance points. NIFTY struggling to hold?

Satya

Hi Satya...the tension levels from short and longer term readings are 3400 and 3409, the latter being a more difficult level.
Should the market show strength there is no reason why these should not be taken.

That would bring the action back at 3425, the major level and a turning point discussed last week.

 

[srisara]

Hi Satya...the tension levels from short and longer term readings are 3400 and 3409, the latter being a more difficult level.
Should the market show strength there is no reason why these should not be taken.

That would bring the action back at 3425, the major level and a turning point discussed last week.

2 more hours to go, looks like there is no reason why it cant take out those levels. If it can sustain 3405, then 3500 is not far i believe.

great going Amit...

 

[jikku]

Dear Amitbe,

Whats happening with the Stock Shivalik Global Ltd ??? Could you throw some light why this recent listed IPO started crashing like anything from 80 to 52 in 3 sessions...any reason behind this ???