NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

The volatility expected yesterday as posted at the start of the session came later in the day. There is every reason to believe there is more left yet, before the players give their nod of concent to the fact that we are indeed now located into a higher orbit of play.
The liquidity continues to flow strongly, and as suggested yesterday, there are ever so willing hands ready to buy at lower levels the leading counters, considering that we are on the eve of the next quarterly results season. This is all about the Indian growth story, and the current rally is an affirmation of this.
There will be sudden lurches rocking things around, but at some point the tendency to short the NIFTY recklessly will die down. It has moved on from strength to strength, and enough shorts (!) have been pulld down out there already.
2473 was the lower support on Tuesday and remained inviolate. The drop rested and bounced off 2477.
2475 was the hinge support yesterday, and the drop was arrested at 2476 with a bounce to 2492.
This 2473-2476 zone may be a trigger for some panic selling at some point. We need to be alert here. The fall below this area could be sharp. This is valid for today also.
A sustainable climb above 2513 is important, or else some rough weather is likely. Above 2525 we are rocking.

Looks like we are heading for a stunning close. The Funds want to put an end to all ambiguity, and propell the NIFTY into a new orbit.
If not 2525, a little less would not be bad at all either.
There will be selling happening along the way, but I feel the fearful days of a deep corection are behind us.

 

[AMITBE]

A sustainable climb above 2513 is important, or else some rough weather is likely. Above 2525 we are rocking.

Looks like we are heading for a stunning close. The Funds want to put an end to all ambiguity, and propell the NIFTY into a new orbit.
If not 2525, a little less would not be bad at all either.
There will be selling happening along the way, but I feel the fearful days of a deep corection are behind us.

2523.95 is finally a just a tad less than 2525!
I'm happy.

 

[srisara]

AMIT,

dont take it personal. your posts and views are eye opening for ametuer traders like us. Only strong words will make people sit up and listen. Your contribution is indeed great.
As long as we take it in a professional and positive manner, dont shy to be harsh

Cheers!
Satya

Nothing much to write...

 

[AMITBE]

AMIT, dont take it personal. your posts and views are eye opening for ametuer traders like us. Only strong words will make people sit up and listen. Your contribution is indeed great.
As long as we take it in a professional and positive manner, dont shy to be harsh
Cheers!
Satya
Nothing much to write...

You're the man, Satya.
I wasn't being harsh, but frank.
Godspeed, along your journey, here as in life.
Utmost regards.

 

[AMITBE]

In the last post yesterday I had suggested that the talk of an impending deep correction seems behind us. This appears quite likely as the mass mentality on the one hand has been drubbed with comments that we are finally into a sustainable bull run. The same analysts who were drilling fear into the minds of the public are now with sheepish smiles admitting to this fact. All this helps the wider sentiment.
On the other hand, institutional funds are pumping in funds at every dip, pushing the market further and further. They must have a good reason for this. Perhaps the growth going forward may not be too quick, it is certainly seen as being intact and firm. The retail investors are joining the part too, as are the, Funds and HNIs who were waiting on the sidelines for the big correction to materialise.
So all in all, the near term trend going forward appears bright, though there will be bouts os sudden selling, and chopiness.
Yet, prudence is the name of the game. One must adhere to tight stop levels and refrain from chasing spurting doubtful counters. Being stock specific together with caution should take care of possible perils.
Yesterday's levels were more important than today's, as we are now into a new territory.
Even so, some volatility may arise if 2514 is broken to the down, ad further, 2500. Below this the dip may be quicker.
To the up, 2535 and up would be nice.

 

[AMITBE]

Above 2535, as suggested this morning, the high briefly was 2537. As this was not sustained, the NIFTY is moving flat to mildly bearish. 2519 was support enough as of now.
A sideways consolidation around the current 2530 off over a period of time would be healthy. This view is valid for the next few sessions too.
Some counters waiting for new upsides are getting the benefit of the prevailing flatness.

 

[AMITBE]

Amazing vitality the NIFTY is diplaying.
Now testing 2549, the upper band for the high today.
Completely unchartered territory.
Bharti, HLL, ONGC, HindPetro, Ipcl, M&M, MTNL...are some of the rocking ones...big time.
One begins to fear sharp drops again, at the rate of this kind of a climb.
Very strong, yet dangerously high too soon.

 

[AMITBE]

All sane participants would have preferred a steady, try and test kind of a rally. But then, this is the stuff of which history is made, and we should all feel a deep sense of privilege for participating in this making of history. At no time has this kind of a rally taken place before.

Going by logic alone, it would appear quite likely that more and more selling pressure would emerge at these 2450 off levels any time soon. Again the Nifty is in a way overbought area. Shooting up withought a break, it has left many gaps that would have to be filled, and this is a tachnical as well as a historical reality.

Be very sure of the kind of positions we hold, this is prime concern now. Keep tight s/l exits, the good ones will always bounce back. Doubtful ones, make every use of a short rally to exit, because if there is a sharp correction, these would stay hammered for a long time. Choppy and terbulent, is what I expect the days to be.

I'm just giving the levels here, for the rest, the market knows its own mind.
To the down, 2542 is the volatile hinge support. Should this go, 2530, and then below a sharp pit.
To the up, 2565-2575 is the range.

 

[madhura]

Hi amit,
looking at nifty chart in karvy, is it making double top at level of 2575.
I just want to know whether i am going in right direction..

i think if it breaks this level, it will go far beyond? not sure...i may sound silly
Thanks
Madhura

 

[AMITBE]

Hi amit,
looking at nifty chart in karvy, is it making double top at level of 2575.
I just want to know whether i am going in right direction..
i think if it breaks this level, it will go far beyond? not sure...i may sound silly Thanks Madhura

Hi Madhura...twice 2571 was tested, first time at 12:30, then at 3:10...so in a manner of speaking only, would it be a double top.
Basically the NIFTY met with critical resistance here and reacted sharply, and on both occasions it slipped from here, the first time to 2559, and later to 2561.
So now 2560 could be considered a level where the NIFTY will find some relief in the future too, possibly for a short spell only.
Good to see you up and running with the TA thing. It seems a lot of members are taking to it, and nothing could be better than this.