NIFTY FIFTY

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AMITBE

Well-Known Member
From the moves durng the day what is evident is that there is a fair deal of directionless in the market. This is not to say the southwards direction is not pronounced.
What I mean is, the majors are coming out with great numbers, the frontliners in both the mid and largecap segment are there for the picking at levels normally not associated with these in a bullrun and there is buying support at lower levels. Yet, the market can't seem to decide if this is enough for correction, and get on with it. All of yesterday the index moved in a broadish range with a choppy disposition.

What is also evident from the end moves yesterday is that there is going to be active buying in the majors on the back of, or in anticipation of good results.
However in the present scenario the main players are going to be trend chasers who are in today and gone tomorrow. Those who have triggered stop loss marks, whether position players or long term investors, would hesitate to go in with so much uncertainty around. The obvious outcome of this is fluctuation or choppiness, as the trend chasers grab this or that trend now, and then dump it, and move on to some other trend play. This really is their market.
And this action will prevail till further critical supports are broken and the market clearly begins to bottom out, or the index moves up decisively to breach important levels for the uptrend to be rediscovered.
Caution continues to be the rule, and any upside is to be used for reducing positions, whether profiting ones or trapped.

For the levels, 2453, 2465 and 2477 are the important historical supports. In the present round, only 2453 alone remains untested and should therefore hold the key to the down. On the other hand, if tested and bounced off, it may yet again prove to be a launching pad.
2503 has been a great launching pad in the past too. For improved sentiment it is vital to break past this level for today or in the days to come. Past this, the next historical level is 2520.
Interestingly, both these exact levels are also the pivot resistances for today.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
On the face of it today's is a positive move.
However there does seem a fair deal of struggle to keep above 2503, the vital mark to remain above tonight or else we should another round of selling.
2512 is an imortant level to sustain for a good part of the day.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
vince said:
Hi Amitbe,
There's some more talk about Head an shoulders" on 'Profit from it'.
What would your take on the nifty be in the short term?
Hi Vince...yes, I have been watching that pattern too.
The irony is, if we climb up at this point to 2567-2577 levels, we form the right shoulder of the H&S from where again the proceedings could turn negative.
On the other hand if we close well below yesterday's close of 2485...as we are likely to do, while we negate the H&S, we are bearish in any case.

With 2463 gone, the next support is at 2458.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
AMITBE said:
For the levels, 2453, 2465 and 2477 are the important historical supports. In the present round, only 2453 alone remains untested and should therefore hold the key to the down. On the other hand, if tested and bounced off, it may yet again prove to be a launching pad.
While the official closing level for the Nifty is 2468, above the 2465 mark mentioned above from this morning, the fact remains that 2452 was the last traded value.
The sudden turn around from higher levels and the ferocious attack on 2453 is a terrible sign.
We are likely to look at some deeper correction, unless of course there is a bounce back....which is looking improbable for now.
 
AMITBE said:
While the official closing level for the Nifty is 2468, above the 2465 mark mentioned above from this morning, the fact remains that 2452 was the last traded value.
The sudden turn around from higher levels and the ferocious attack on 2453 is a terrible sign.
We are likely to look at some deeper correction, unless of course there is a bounce back....which is looking improbable for now.
Hi Amit,

My Indiabulls relationship manager sent me a msg in the dying moments of trading : FM resigning rumours ????????????????????

I wonder if that was the reason for the sudden crash. If so, hope they were only rumors and no further downside is in store for us.

Keeping our fingers crossed.

Regards,
Karuna
 
K

karvind79

Guest
Dear Friends,

Check my last 2 days level for NIFTY and movements are all on or near to my levels and i feel happy for my good calculation.Seniors kindly post ur views abt that.This calculation is not based on any PP calculator and only with the TA using TA software.

Today Levels are

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

2539 2528 2501 2487 2477 2446 2430


Seniors post ur views.

From,

Arvind.K
 

vince

Active Member
AMITBE said:
Hi Vince...yes, I have been watching that pattern too.
The irony is, if we climb up at this point to 2567-2577 levels, we form the right shoulder of the H&S from where again the proceedings could turn negative.
On the other hand if we close well below yesterday's close of 2485...as we are likely to do, while we negate the H&S, we are bearish in any case.

With 2463 gone, the next support is at 2458.
Thanks Amit. Very clearly put. Lets see how the nifty (mis)behaves today.
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
The close yesterday was both confusing and chilling.
On the chilling part, 2553 for the first time was being badly mauled when the day ended yesterday, and I am glad it did end before further damage could be inflicted. With the official closing level as 2568, there is marginal solace technically, though in reality 2553 stands vulnerable and exposed.
This level remains a vital support area as below this the only support of any significance is 2403 which was a strong resistance mark on the way up.

On the confusing side, looking at the Put-Call Ratio for the Nifty October series, the value is more than one at 2500, and someone do correct me here if I am mistaken.
If not, then this indicates the sentiment is bullish, and the players feel that the market is bottoming out with a bounce back round the corner.
Perhaps much will depend on how the Rupee behaves in the days to come, and if the FIIs will set to buying again.

For the levels, 2463 is critical today, being one of the important marks in the past. Below this, 2453 is threatened, below which 2440 would give some support.
To the up, it's important to climb above 2480, and 2503 would be a dream come true.
Will follow up.
 
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