NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

"Interestingly, it was the concern over the Reliance demerger that had sharply tanked the market then, and it’s the anticipated (CNBC) drop in profits in Reliance that could do the market in again."

Amit, what does this mean? Why the reference of CNBC?

Thanks,
Kool

Hi Kool...it's the CNBC earnings estimate that shows a 10% decline in profits on Reliance.
It may or may not be so, but they are known to be pretty accurate.
If the results are better than anticipated, expect a surge. If not, we'll see some correction most likely which is a good thing as more players can get on lower to make the inevitable rally stronger.
Infy, TCS, HDFC, Satyam, Wipro are supposed to be pretty decent, and if so, they'll take things higher.

 

[AMITBE]

The supports first:
2906-2904-2902-2900-2898 are immediately below. Of these the last two are more important.
Further down, 2896-2893-2890-2887-2884-2881-2877. 2874 could be a bottom area.
To the up, 2914-2917-2920-2923-2926-2929-2932 for now, and should the action hot-up to the up, 29335-2938 form the outer band.

Well...2874 has given way after a brief fight for now.
The bear pressure is pretty intense, and it won't let up till 2874-2877-2881-2889 are regained.
Lower still are 2871-2868-2865-2862 with 2859 showing up as another important base if the going gets any worse.

 

[AMITBE]

So finally it was Reliance that did the trick on Tuesday. None stand in the way where Reliance is concerned, and the correction was evenly spread to all segments and sectors, across the board. The delayed announcement of the results would have caused a sellout with yesterday being a holiday.
Yesterday also saw Infosys coming out with average numbers.
So that gives the market two good reasons to carry on from Tuesdays moves.
Meaning, a further fall is on the cards.
It would take some strong numbers from more than a few big counters to cause a reversal in the very short term.
No matter, and no big fears.
Counters of the likes Reliance and Infy wont come in for a hammering for too long. There will always be fervent hands waiting to pouch these at lower levels: Reliance is set to go higher later this month when the demerger takes place, and the Infy numbers were not really bad bad even if it comes under fire for a bit.
Some decent numbers from other majors would certainly counter any major fall.
On the other hand, a couple more disappointments and well see a deeper correction.

For today the major issue should be to find a strong base support for consolidation.
2877 and 2889 have now come into play.
2835, the major conflict zone of recent times emerges as a strong contender for the base support. This is a crucial level to watch.
More precisely, Ive got two levels that should be strong: 2844 and 2832.

From Tuesdays closing at 2870.80, the supports are: 2865-2862-2859-2856. 2856 is an important level in either direction. Further down, 2854-2850-2848-2844. Below this is 2840-2837-2834. Will leave this for now.
To the up, 2877-2880-2882 are major levels. If there is an unlikely surprise in this direction, will post later.

 

[AMITBE]

For today the major issue should be to find a strong base support for consolidation.
2877 and 2889 have now come into play.
2835, the major conflict zone of recent times emerges as a strong contender for the base support. This is a crucial level to watch.
More precisely, Ive got two levels that should be strong: 2844 and 2832.

From Tuesdays closing at 2870.80, the supports are: 2865-2862-2859-2856. 2856 is an important level in either direction. Further down, 2854-2850-2848-2844. Below this is 2840-2837-2834. Will leave this for now.
To the up, 2877-2880-2882 are major levels. If there is an unlikely surprise in this direction, will post later.

Over the next half hour should the market hold around and above 2832, expect some short covering. That will asist a recovery.

 

[AMITBE]

For today the major issue should be to find a strong base support for consolidation.
2877 and 2889 have now come into play.
2835, the major conflict zone of recent times emerges as a strong contender for the base support. This is a crucial level to watch.
More precisely, Ive got two levels that should be strong: 2844 and 2832.

From Tuesdays closing at 2870.80, the supports are: 2865-2862-2859-2856. 2856 is an important level in either direction. Further down, 2854-2850-2848-2844. Below this is 2840-2837-2834. Will leave this for now.
To the up, 2877-2880-2882 are major levels. If there is an unlikely surprise in this direction, will post later.

The velocity of the initial fall took the Nifty below 2832 in a falsh.
Those with intraday charting can see the fight at 2856.
For now 2844 marked in red is taking plenty of flak and holding.
Positions will be built around these marks and squared, leading to volitility as long as some of the major counters remain weak.
2827 and 2838 are crucial at this point to the down.
To the up, same as above.

 

[AMITBE]

A close above 2844 would be a strong one and above 2856, sit back and enjoy the action in the days to come.
This market is not about to collapse at all.

 

[AMITBE]

Tis Friday the 13th.
The Ides of March in a manner of speaking, as those with a Shakespearean bent of mind would know it.
Superstition aside, this may well turn out to be a strong pointer of a session if not a strong mover itself.
And the direction?
Wellthere is no tangible trigger to the down as was yesterday.
The Reliance and Infy knee-jerk hysteria must already be factored in after yesterdays trade, and if anything, they should be looking to gain today.
Early next week is the d-day for Reliance and Im sure plenty of speculative buying will be seen here, and Infy seemed pretty stable at and around 2830 most of the afternoon after the early drubbing.
There are plenty of counters in the various caps that are straining to get on with the pre-result rally.
After the early fizz to the down, the Nifty at no time for the rest of the session appeared overtly weak and if anything, disclosed a sense of underlying strength.
Was it just a reflex pullback, or are the players unwilling to allow a bigger correction from occurring just yet?
From simple logic, if such a thing is applicable to the markets, the signs are backing a recovery for today, even if a mild one as there are no major triggers awaiting play.

I had suggested 2832 as a base support for yesterday and except for the momentary flash to the down which exceeded that level by 8 points (the lowest recorded in the first five minutes was 2824), 2832 was never really threatened except fleetingly once, with a quick pullback to 2844 plus. 2844 was the other candidate for a base support, and again the bulk of the action happened above this level. Those with intraday charting can check this.
For me this an indicator of strength.
The other important level for yesterday was 2856 and there was an admirable fight for this in the end, and the close at 2850 maintains the advantage for the bulls on an otherwise bearish day.
Yes, I'm taking a chance to the up.
Even if it's a Friday and even if it's Friday the 13th.

The levels to the up first, 2854-2858-2861-2865-2868-2871-2874. 2858 and 2874 are important in either direction. When the play moves to these levels, 2877-2880-2883-2887 form the band for now.
Down below, 2848-2844-2841-2838-2836-2832.
2827-2828 is the strong base area if things get harsh.
Volatility should be high with speculative calls, and the bears pouncing on every peak, and frequent squaring off in both directions.

 

[AMITBE]

The levels to the up first, 2854-2858-2861-2865-2868-2871-2874. 2858 and 2874 are important in either direction. When the play moves to these levels, 2877-2880-2883-2887 form the band for now.
Down below, 2848-2844-2841-2838-2836-2832.
2827-2828 is the strong base area if things get harsh.
Volatility should be high with speculative calls, and the bears pouncing on every peak, and frequent squaring off in both directions.

So far so good.
As and when 2877 is firmly taken we should see some quick moves.
It's important to not let 2874 slip too far...it's an important level mentioned above.
Surprisingly Reliance is pretty quiet but in the green.
It would be interesting once this gets into play at some point....and it should.

 

[AMITBE]

Friday the 13th came and went, and the Nifty ruled firm and strong all day.
The last half hour did all the damage, and thats disconcerting.
Was that a sellout expected of a Friday afternoon?
Or has the mood turned bearish, at least for the short term?
Its a difficult riddle to decipher, and the moves last week, especially on Friday, seem to point to further fall, again for the short term possibly.

We are at the start of another week which should turn out to be a twister.
Extreme volatility is to be expected, and unless Reliance does something to raise the mood, a bearish disposition is likely to prevail. And if Reliance does nothing, one may see a deepish correction.
A pity it is, this dependence on Reliance, as there are several Midcaps straining to go with some important results coming this week.
However, those holding specifically strong counters will have every reason to smile.
And should Reliance turn bullish, well head up fast.
All in all, a difficult call.

At this time the Nifty has been stuck in a range.
If there has been no follow through buying, there has been no sellout either.
Of the two likely turning points mentioned for the Nifty, 2877 and 2889, 2877 now appears to be the likely one. On Friday 2878 was the highest.
We have gone as high as 2927 to the up, and tested 2824 to the down in churning moves.
2820-2824 to me still appear to be important bottom levels for now, or even 2814.
To the up, 2877 and 2889 are most important to hold firmly for an upside.

For the levels on either side of 2850 Friday close:
Immediate supports are 2847-2844-2841. 2838 is an important level.
Further below are 2836-2833-2830-2828-2824-2821.
To the up, 2853-2856-2859. 2862 is important.
Then 2866-2870-2874.
2877-2880 are important too, and taking this area would set up a strong rally.

As for timing, today is quite important.
Then Jan 19 and Jan 21 for this week.

 

[AMITBE]

For the levels on either side of 2850 Friday close:
Immediate supports are 2847-2844-2841. 2838 is an important level.
Further below are 2836-2833-2830-2828-2824-2821.
To the up, 2853-2856-2859. 2862 is important.
Then 2866-2870-2874.
2877-2880 are important too, and taking this area would set up a strong rally.

As for timing, today is quite important.
Then Jan 19 and Jan 21 for this week.

2823 is important to hold above.
If not, 2819-2815-2813 are below. Then...remember 2810? And also 2806-2803....and 2799?
Dejavu.