NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Hello Amit,

Tomorrow is May 12, looking forwarded to intresting action as indicated by you in your earlier posts. Another intresting aspect would be the 3633 level also mentioned by you, it looks far away, or is it?

Maybe during the weekend you can throw some light on these things.

Regards
Sanjay

Hi Sanjay, yes looks pretty dismal doesnt it.
Its like everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for this daythis May 12.

And as for 3633, is it really far?
I dont think so.
It may well turn out to be rather close.
That is, should the oncoming pullback assume serious proportions.

Weve seen over and over again how buying emerges at lower levels.
The most recent example of this was the SEBI Karvy/Indiabulls saga.
Whether its going to be different now is to be seen, but the reasons this time are quite different, and obvious too.

Its not as if the comeback of the Left allies in the two states was not expected.
Even so, the market will have to do its customary routine I suppose.
And perhaps the knee jerk would be more than a little violent.

The truth is there is no real dark cloud on the fundamentals of the Indian story, all because the Left has staged a strong presence.
They may make strong statements to appease their constituency, some thumping of chests would happen, some jingoism too.
But no, thats not going to dampen the Indian story.

But perhaps the big guys will keep out of the picture till a strong statement of cooperation and bonhomie comes through from Delhi.
There are a few festering issues there like gas prices etc.
Perhaps there would be some all round profit booking and at some point going ahead buying will come back.

The international issues are not really a major concern, I believe.
The India story carries on in spite of all that.


The concern now is how far down will things go.
Who can really tell.

But even so, the levels.

3633 is within the line of fire.
Ill also be watching 3597 with interest.
Will come back with some long range levels later on.


For today the support line:
3698-3694-3689-3684-3679-3674-3669-3664-3659-3654. 3654 is a crucial level.
Then 3648-3642-3636-3630-3624.
If theres more, will post again.

To the up, if theres going to be any up then 3706-3712-3718-3724 are the levels to hold.

 

[vizzie]

Hello Amit,

Tomorrow is May 12, looking forwarded to intresting action as indicated by you in your earlier posts. Another intresting aspect would be the 3633 level also mentioned by you, it looks far away, or is it?

Maybe during the weekend you can throw some light on these things.

Regards
Sanjay

Hi AmitDa !!

How close can it get.
A big move on the openin.. as u said earlier..
unfortunately, to the downside..
let's see how the day fares

Gr8 work, AmitDa..

cheerio
vizzie

 

[SGM]

Hello

Dada, shows 3636 as low on NFs as of now.....

Regards
Sanjay

 

[ShrikantK]

Hi Amit,

Great work...!!! NIFTY bang on 3633 at open itself.

regards,
shrikant

 

[vince]

Hi Amit,

All I can say is if at all the market has to go into a corrective mode I wish it would do so during the soccer season instead of now.

 

[AMITBE]

The concern now is how far down will things go.
Who can really tell.

But even so, the levels.

3633 is within the line of fire.
Ill also be watching 3597 with interest.
Will come back with some long range levels later on.


For today the support line:
3698-3694-3689-3684-3679-3674-3669-3664-3659-3654. 3654 is a crucial level.
Then 3648-3642-3636-3630-3624.
If theres more, will post again.

To the up, if theres going to be any up then 3706-3712-3718-3724 are the levels to hold.

Thanks Vizzie, Sanjay and Shrikant...
Hi Vince...the corrective mode for the Nifty and the soccer season...can't tell if it's going to get kicked around or not.
But then the proceedings for quite a while have resembled a high scoring ODI series.

Yes, the Nifty dropped like a stone right on the nose of 3633.
It has pulled back nicely so far but let that not take our guard away.
There's a lot to be done still.

First thing first, it's important to stay above 3658 and 3661.
Slipping below these would make a comeback that much more difficult.

Further up for strength, 3664-3667-3670 is the line to hold.

Further still, anything above 3682-3686 would be good for a close. Not an easy task, especialy on a day like this which also happens to be the last day of the week, but even so.

To the down, 3624 was the last low level mentioned this morning.
Should this be broken, then the line is 3619-3614-3609-3604-3599-3594-3589-3584.

 

[AMITBE]

First thing first, it's important to stay above 3658 and 3661.
Slipping below these would make a comeback that much more difficult.

Further up for strength, 3664-3667-3670 is the line to hold.

Further still, anything above 3682-3686 would be good for a close. Not an easy task, especialy on a day like this which also happens to be the last day of the week, but even so.

To the down, 3624 was the last low level mentioned this morning.
Should this be broken, then the line is 3619-3614-3609-3604-3599-3594-3589-3584.

All the up levels given above were attempted.
The above post was made a little before the levels were scaled. (hand mark)

Twice the Nifty rose above 3682-3686, and the second time it made a double top and fell severely from there.
In the end not one level mentioned above was held at close.
This is one single factor that worries me on a fall day like this.
Closing above even a couple of these levels on an overall fall day would have implied relative strength, where the Nifty has consistently been showing relative weakness on up days in recent times. (Again, please don't confuse this with RSI and the like)
One plus factor is that there was a marked absence of a sell-out kind of panic all day.
Even so, a weak finish, finally.

As for the crucial level at 3633, well, it got its dues today finally.
Whether this is enough or not, one cannot tell now.
The other level mentioned this morning is 3597. Let's see if anything happens there going ahead.

On a week on week closing basis, well, this has been one week up and one week down for the third time in a row. Those who have weekly charts can see it tonight.
This best depicts the ''relatively weak'' mode that the Nifty has been under, even if it has gone up for these weeks.

The verdict as of this evening:
Flat with a negative bias in the longer frame, and rather weak in the short one.
Monday is a couple of days ago, and much can happen till then.

Have a nice one all.

 

[AMITBE]

Theres not a single positive prompt from any source anywhere to give hope.
But even so, the action on Friday certainly did not resemble a sell out.
Yes, a wide based profit booking took place which is just fine.
For this reason, and more importantly, for the fundamental strength of our market, Id venture out to say I dont expect an ominous session going in today.
Some crucial levels may be tested in either direction.
To the down, the Nifty is still quite some distance away from negative triggers.
I would take it one day at a time, where Friday was not such a grim day at all, even if the Nifty couldnt wade into some challenging levels at close.

The market is a self adjusting entity like no other entity anywhere.
It adjusts with great intelligence and speed.
This is true despite all the knee-jerk activity that goes on.
Along the line it will make adjustments to eco/political shifts at the national level, hardening interest rates, and crude prices internationally, meddling with cement or sugar prices closer to home etc etc.

Thats pretty much it.

The levels:

To the up the Nifty lies amidst congestion till 3668.
The line is 3654-3658-3661-3664-3668.
Easier moves can come at 3671-3674-3677-3680-3683-3686-3689-3692.
Then congestion is seen again, and if 3696 is taken will post again.

Supports are 3646-3642-3638-3634-3630-3626.
3624 is crucial.
Then 3619-3614-3609-3604-3597-3594-3589-3584-3579.

 

[AMITBE]

Theres not a single positive prompt from any source anywhere to give hope.
But even so, the action on Friday certainly did not resemble a sell out.
Yes, a wide based profit booking took place which is just fine.
For this reason, and more importantly, for the fundamental strength of our market, Id venture out to say I dont expect an ominous session going in today.
Some crucial levels may be tested in either direction.
To the down, the Nifty is still quite some distance away from negative triggers.
I would take it one day at a time, where Friday was not such a grim day at all, even if the Nifty couldnt wade into some challenging levels at close.



To the up the Nifty lies amidst congestion till 3668.
The line is 3654-3658-3661-3664-3668.
Easier moves can come at 3671-3674-3677-3680-3683-3686-3689-3692.
Then congestion is seen again, and if 3696 is taken will post again.

Supports are 3646-3642-3638-3634-3630-3626.
3624 is crucial.
Then 3619-3614-3609-3604-3597-3594-3589-3584-3579.

At this point the fall is disconcertingly close to looking serious.

An important intraday level is 3573, or 3568 below which the decline may go deeper with ease.
If so, the line is 3573-3568-3563-3558-3553-3548-3542.

A few important long range levels are 3561 and 3544.
I'd worry if these go.

 

[vizzie]

Theres not a single positive prompt from any source anywhere to give hope.
But even so, the action on Friday certainly did not resemble a sell out.
Yes, a wide based profit booking took place which is just fine.
For this reason, and more importantly, for the fundamental strength of our market, Id venture out to say I dont expect an ominous session going in today.
Some crucial levels may be tested in either direction.
To the down, the Nifty is still quite some distance away from negative triggers.
I would take it one day at a time, where Friday was not such a grim day at all, even if the Nifty couldnt wade into some challenging levels at close.

The market is a self adjusting entity like no other entity anywhere.
It adjusts with great intelligence and speed.
This is true despite all the knee-jerk activity that goes on.
Along the line it will make adjustments to eco/political shifts at the national level, hardening interest rates, and crude prices internationally, meddling with cement or sugar prices closer to home etc etc.

Thats pretty much it.

The levels:

To the up the Nifty lies amidst congestion till 3668.
The line is 3654-3658-3661-3664-3668.
Easier moves can come at 3671-3674-3677-3680-3683-3686-3689-3692.
Then congestion is seen again, and if 3696 is taken will post again.

Supports are 3646-3642-3638-3634-3630-3626.
3624 is crucial.
Then 3619-3614-3609-3604-3597-3594-3589-3584-3579.

Hi Amitda !!

The way it is goin down, u may hv to give us more support levels on the downside..
pretty bad session for the nifty.. isn't it..

vizzie