Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[jamit_05]

Reasons why the trend is still down:

***FII only did major short covering (profit booking) yesterday. No fresh buying was made !! ****

1) None of the global factors have changed. It is believed that Rate-Cut has caused this rally. But, Global markets were up yesterday !!

2) Nifty corrected 5 weeks in a row, against it, at least one week of respite is expected. That does not mean trend has changed to bullish. More and sharper down side expected since new lows will be made.

3) Nifty did the same last time. 5 weeks of down, 1 week of up. This is the second cycle.

4) This was a bounce of a very important Fib ratio of 0.50 on the monthly chart. Not fundamentally driven bounce.

I will be sticking to shorts as long as Nifty stays below 5758.

 

[jamit_05]

Took shorts with 10% increased quantity at 5704.95 May series. This downmove is likely to extend into the May series. Holding 5700 PE of Apr series at cost of 60.

 

[jamit_05]

At Yesterday's Close:

SPOT 5689
NF 5696
Hence, Premium was 7 pts. In contrast with today where the Dicount is 3 pts.

Bear are still in the game. Just have not surfaced.

 

[kiran_thiru]

i have a doubt on my reliance position. can you explain this
http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/78805-my-options-trading-diary-kiran_thiru-9.html#post800573

 

[jamit_05]

After such a strong run-up, price is against a strong resistance as Weekly 15 Ema. This is a recipe for reversal. As long as our Daily trend is down, we can count on it.

Earlier entry hit SL. Now, 2nd attempt.

Short at 5690.85, SL 24 points.

 

[jamit_05]

I have made a mistake. And this is the same mistake twice in two months.

Mistake:

In decision making, external and untested inputs took priority over my set of well tested rules. I was hoping to have at least 90 days of error free trading. Failed.

The seeds for the mistake were sowed when I started reading the newspaper. There should be no other input, idea or source for trend detection or any other trading decision other than The Rules.

After this deep felt realization I think this mistake should not be repeated.

Hope to take trades ONLY based on my Rules.

 

[gurmy.]

I have made a mistake. And this is the same mistake twice in two months.

Mistake:

In decision making, external and untested inputs took priority over my set of well tested rules. I was hoping to have at least 90 days of error free trading. Failed.

The seeds for the mistake were sowed when I started reading the newspaper. There should be no other input, idea or source for trend detection or any other trading decision other than The Rules.

After this deep felt realization I think this mistake should not be repeated.

Hope to take trades ONLY based on my Rules.

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

 

[hames]

I have made a mistake. And this is the same mistake twice in two months.

Mistake:

In decision making, external and untested inputs took priority over my set of well tested rules. I was hoping to have at least 90 days of error free trading. Failed.

The seeds for the mistake were sowed when I started reading the newspaper. There should be no other input, idea or source for trend detection or any other trading decision other than The Rules.

After this deep felt realization I think this mistake should not be repeated.

Hope to take trades ONLY based on my Rules.

Hi Jamit

can you pls specify as per your rule what it would have been. short term trend is still up as per the charts.

 

[jamit_05]

Hi Jamit

can you pls specify as per your rule what it would have been. short term trend is still up as per the charts.

As per common logic the Daily Pivot at 5610.65 spot is a trend changer to long.

That is it.

 

[jamit_05]

Much thanks to Mr. Anil Trivedi's thread. It brought my attention to the Trend Lines.

Quite clearly the price is likely to find resistance at this established trendline.

I will look for short position below break of today's LOD. Will watch intraday action tomorrow for a better entry.

thank you.