Nifty Futures Positional Trading

[jamit_05]

What ur view on tommorow market ?

Cannot say with any confidence my friend. Will just have to wait and watch.

Trend is up on all timeframes, that is usually way too optimistic. But, sometimes the trend continues.

Although, I am hoping for juicy short positions, but as of now it is surely too early to short. Will watch price action in the next week to take short positions.

Cheers.

 

[rkkarnani]

Nifty itself is showing Bullish trend and so are most of its components ! Hence NF should keep it move with its UP momentum !

 

[jamit_05]

Nifty itself is showing Bullish trend and so are most of its components ! Hence NF should keep it move with its UP momentum !

As a confirmation, NF should make a continuation gap and not fill it for a few days. Then this euphoria will have credibility. Else, it looks like bulls could be slain any given day.

Nifty tried doing it in Sept, but failed.

If price drags its weary carcass to all time high, then its very likely to get beaten down by long standing investors who have been devoutly praying for exits at breakeven-prices. This mood can easily change if Nifty takes on a momentum and sustains it for at least 500 more points. Else, God help... 5400 in matter of a few weeks doesn't look too incredible a possibility.

 

[rkkarnani]

A close above 6200 and that too a weekly close, seems to give an edge to Bulls !

 

[timepass]

As a confirmation, NF should make a continuation gap and not fill it for a few days. Then this euphoria will have credibility. Else, it looks like bulls could be slain any given day.

Nifty tried doing it in Sept, but failed.

If price drags its weary carcass to all time high, then its very likely to get beaten down by long standing investors who have been devoutly praying for exits at breakeven-prices. This mood can easily change if Nifty takes on a momentum and sustains it for at least 500 more points. Else, God help... 5400 in matter of a few weeks doesn't look too incredible a possibility.

Even if it reaches all time highs, which scrips (except the index) would've reached the highs of 2008 ?? Reliance @4000 ?? Aban offshore (lol) @4500 ?? So, even if the index reaches all time highs, not many will be using it to exit the old positions. It may go there on the strength of fresh longs, which would mean a continuation.

 

[jamit_05]

Even if it reaches all time highs, which scrips (except the index) would've reached the highs of 2008 ?? Reliance @4000 ?? Aban offshore (lol) @4500 ?? So, even if the index reaches all time highs, not many will be using it to exit the old positions. It may go there on the strength of fresh longs, which would mean a continuation.

Aban etc have small market cap. So this is a line wasted in its discussion.
Lets only consider the big boys like, Ril, Infy, ITC, HuL that have status in Nifty.

After factoring in the split/bonuses, the all time high of Reliance Industries is 1626. Its CMP of 905 so that is a relief enough for the desperate. And every further inch up will tempt them more... unless the bullish momentum is strong... that was my point.

Now let us not consider the buyers of 2008 only. Because any and all buyers have their own perspectives and if their net sentiment is bearish then increasing price will attract sellers. Sure, if its bullish then they will buy... but I highly doubt any major investment is gonna come in now given the instability due to the elections next year.

Then again, you never know.

 

[timepass]

Aban etc have small market cap. So this is a line wasted in its discussion.
Lets only consider the big boys like, Ril, Infy, ITC, HuL that have status in Nifty.

After factoring in the split/bonuses, the all time high of Reliance Industries is 1626. Its CMP of 905 so that is a relief enough for the desperate. And every further inch up will tempt them more... unless the bullish momentum is strong... that was my point.

Now let us not consider the buyers of 2008 only. Because any and all buyers have their own perspectives and if their net sentiment is bearish then increasing price will attract sellers. Sure, if its bullish then they will buy... but I highly doubt any major investment is gonna come in now given the instability due to the elections next year.

Then again, you never know.

But we are talking of the "shorts trapped at the top" i.e. in 2008. I doubt if any of those are still holding, most probably they have booked out and moved on. Aban maybe a midcap now, but in 2008 it was one of the hottest properties and had huge weightage.

My point is, if it goes on to newer highs, it will do so on the basis of fresh longs and we may not see any older shorts exiting. If it does go to newer highs, the retracement, if any, will be because of profit booking and not short covering and the uptrend will continue.

 

[jamit_05]

But we are talking of the "shorts trapped at the top" i.e. in 2008. I doubt if any of those are still holding, most probably they have booked out and moved on. Aban maybe a midcap now, but in 2008 it was one of the hottest properties and had huge weightage.

My point is, if it goes on to newer highs, it will do so on the basis of fresh longs and we may not see any older shorts exiting. If it does go to newer highs, the retracement, if any, will be because of profit booking and not short covering and the uptrend will continue.

I could safely say that Big Investors do not get "trapped" as they do not trade in futures, but purchase the stocks for an indefinite period. FnO are just hedging instruments for them.

So, it is not the trapped, but the seasoned Investors who have turned neutral or bearish on India who are looking for exits will participate in selling. Trapped volume is small in comparison. They just bear the brunt for being in front of a speeding train.

Making and sustaining all time highs is the job of sectors and not individual companies. And I believe, a sustained uptrend in the Banking sector will help Nifty scale higher. Others, IT and FMCG can lend a hand as they have already gone too much up too quick. So keep an eye out at top banking stocks to display bullish patterns.

I see that if SBI breaks 1800, then this major banking stocks will lend a hand, as it will mark a breakout failure of a pivot low on the weekly timeframe. A target of 2400 is almost a given. For HDFC Bank, I will lookout for the break of all time high of 727 and a successful retest of it.

This should be fun.

 

[anmohiey]

Hi Guys,
ys, evr 1 might hv x their fingers!
but, honestly, time doesn't seems ripe 4 any peaking and fact is it woun't!/
In 2008 when market peaked, $ was valuing rs.38! Now to peak that level v hv 2 c 62/38*22700 = 37000++++ BSE, so one cannot consider v r evn nr to peak!

 

[rkkarnani]

Hi Guys,
ys, evr 1 might hv x their fingers!
but, honestly, time doesn't seems ripe 4 any peaking and fact is it woun't!/
In 2008 when market peaked, $ was valuing rs.38! Now to peak that level v hv 2 c 62/38*22700 = 37000++++ BSE, so one cannot consider v r evn nr to peak!

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