Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)

[orderflow13]

There is a rollover going on, with clear intention of long positions building in next series by big guys, but nifty is in premium and so cost of carry is high( next month fut is in premium with current month fut. ) so road ahead is bumpy, there will be major attempts from big guys to press nifty on lower levels by selling in equity segment so they rollover there position on lower value .. this happened n number of times b4 xpiry, so be careful.
On chart, nifty is weak, macd line going downwards , rsi made a low and moving along with down TL, parabolic sar is getting steeper as mentioned yesterday. bIG WHITE CANDLE made few days back, is come in to picture, the low of it 4040 will act as support, resistance around 4300.

 

[devangan123]

thanks for bringing the weekly and monthly timeframe RSI to light ... still not a single oversold green signal from RSI for the last 5 years and we are talking about a bear market..

Sir Regarding Weekly Charts Nifty has come 3 times below 30 i.e Oversold position since Jan 2008 , last time in August only , Regarding Monthly yes we have not come yet may be because it gets over sold in 7-8 years only due to 8 year trading cycle Nature of Nifty.

But I can sense your real message that pictuare aabhi baaki hai , aabhi to bear market ka Interval se pahle ka hi part chal raha hai and we will see more cruel Bear market in near future


Devan

 

[Sunil]

thank u SatDa, Czar & Columbus....

the RSI confusion is cleared...

just refer your 60 min charts (where the diff is huge)
investbulls & even 60 min thread have 1st horly bar at 9:55 to 10:00, second from 10:00 to 11:00 and so on [CASE 1]

i think, (if i can make out from your hourly charts posted), the fisrt hourly bar is from 9:55 to 10:55, second from 10:55 to 11:55 and so on... [CASE 2]

that's why there's a calculation difference
RSI(14) takes last 14 bars into picture.... the last 14 bars will obviously be different because of the above reason...

just for info, HOURLY RSI FOR
CASE 1 = 25
CASE 2 = 45

thanks again

these figures come handy in my intraday trades (especially opening trades)

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

i didnt get u RD .. can you explain pleas?

Hi A_L,
the RSI level in weekly and monthly has not gone below 30 and cut back above it to give a green signal in the last 5 years ... just shows that the market in RSI terms has never been oversold ,but has given overbought signal atleast a dozen times in that period ,and yet we are down 40% from the top. We all look at the price correction from the top but forget how much it has appreciated over the last 5 years for e.g asishji told me he bought bharti for 25 and sold it for 40 , a near 100% profit , and look where it is right now inspite of this correction.Even i bought icici for 120 , sold it for 300 and patted myself on the back for a few months but inspite of all the bad news , correction etc.. it is still at 600 after touching 1400.... Over the week-end just saw someone mentioning how over-sold the market was while it has never been oversold in half-a-decade....

 

[columbus]

Hi A_L,
the RSI level in weekly and monthly has not gone below 30 and cut back above it to give a green signal in the last 5 years ... just shows that the market in RSI terms has never been oversold ,but has given overbought signal atleast a dozen times in that period ,and yet we are down 40% from the top. We all look at the price correction from the top but forget how much it has appreciated over the last 5 years for e.g asishji told me he bought bharti for 25 and sold it for 40 , a near 100% profit , and look where it is right now inspite of this correction.Even i bought icici for 120 , sold it for 300 and patted myself on the back for a few months but inspite of all the bad news , correction etc.. it is still at 600 after touching 1400.... Over the week-end just saw someone mentioning how over-sold the market was while it has never been oversold in half-a-decade....

RD,

But RSI on daily basis is quite significant ,whereas in the period
you mentioned the time frame was too LONG. Roughly 3 months
back RSI was below 30 on atleast 8 occasions and was
less than 20 only once. 20 days back RSI was less than 30.

 

[orderflow13]

RD
interesting observation and rightly so .. along with interesting nick A_L
i like UR nh and NR explaination on library thread czar having a contender with sharp humor
p.s. i bet above observation will not be easily found on book or google .. thats why traderji rocks .. cheers and thanks again to look at rsi by bigger angle
INVERTERS ALWAYS EARN THE MONEY ON BIGGER TIME FRAME UNTIL ITS THE END OF THE WORLD

 

[Czar]

true RD I had a few RIL cash bought at today's adjusted valued of around 100 bucks... sold at 2550

so imagine the FII's who bought at 50/100 bucks dont mind dumping at any of these levels... & I laugh when someone tells me but wont they suffer a loss !!!

 

[mitasatyajit]

thank u SatDa, Czar & Columbus....

the RSI confusion is cleared...

just refer your 60 min charts (where the diff is huge)
investbulls & even 60 min thread have 1st horly bar at 9:55 to 10:00, second from 10:00 to 11:00 and so on [CASE 1]

i think, (if i can make out from your hourly charts posted), the fisrt hourly bar is from 9:55 to 10:55, second from 10:55 to 11:55 and so on... [CASE 2]

that's why there's a calculation difference
RSI(14) takes last 14 bars into picture.... the last 14 bars will obviously be different because of the above reason...

just for info, HOURLY RSI FOR
CASE 1 = 25
CASE 2 = 45

thanks again

these figures come handy in my intraday trades (especially opening trades)

In my Hourly chart, the fisrt hourly bar is from 9:55 to 10:55, second from 10:55 to 11:55 and so on... [CASE 2]

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

true RD I had a few RIL cash bought at today's adjusted valued of around 100 bucks... sold at 2550

so imagine the FII's who bought at 50/100 bucks dont mind dumping at any of these levels... & I laugh when someone tells me but wont they suffer a loss !!!

yes , even i thought of buying Reliance before it got split in to 8-10 listed companies a few years back but the valuations , P/E ,P/B , EBITDA etc... were not attractive for me to take a buy call ... It will take a depression or two in US to buy reliance and all its group companies at that price..

 

[Czar]

no chance now, if RIL become 100 what will be the sensex ???? that too 100 including all the kids ?!!!

ps: only possibility is a substitute for crude oil is found but then why to buy RIL then...

PS: Alex : 3 black crows on hourly crude...