Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)

[columbus]

Renu jee, Alex, Sunil, Sat Da, Czar,...

What is the technical position of the market (Nifty) for purposes of positional trades? Is it (strongly) trending, reversing trend, neutral...?

The extreme two-way volatility has been a boon w.r.t. intra-day trading, but making it difficult to hold positional trades. How would you approach it? Just think out loud - I trade on my own, but appreciate everyone's views, which I critically evaluate.

The risk, not sure how relevant just yet, is that we may break out of the range (which to be sure had been consistently coming down forming lower highs and lower lows) and start to trend (higher/lower), and it would be terrible if one were wrongly "positioned" at that time. Currently I am able to operate without stop-loss levels (by managing quantity) and trades, both long and short, turn out profitable. But I am not sure that will last very long.

All your analysis/views are appreciated.

Thanks

Ashish

Hi ptt,

If you look at last 10 or 15 days chart of Nifty Futures the 25- DMA
is moving in parallel to 100-DMA.In last ONE month 100-DMA has moved down
from 4600-4400 whereas 25-DMA moved from almost 4340 to 4217.
I think the overall trend is DOWNWARD but in between we can see
a couple of Bullish rallies.

 

[devangan123]

Renu jee, Alex, Sunil, Sat Da, Czar,...

What is the technical position of the market (Nifty) for purposes of positional trades? Is it (strongly) trending, reversing trend, neutral...?

The extreme two-way volatility has been a boon w.r.t. intra-day trading, but making it difficult to hold positional trades. How would you approach it? Just think out loud - I trade on my own, but appreciate everyone's views, which I critically evaluate.

The risk, not sure how relevant just yet, is that we may break out of the range

Thanks

Ashish

Although I am not much capable enough to give reply as others specially you mentioned but could not resist my self from reply after seeing one line which i have made bold



we may break out of the range ?????

Well i have seen only 1 bear market in past and according to experience of that Range in bear market is broken normally on lower side maximum number of times. While on other side most of normal non- technical trader always expect on upper side .


Devan

 

[Czar]

I personally Have a day to day look in this market , cant say we are doomed or will survive as a blanket statement, after a big fall depending on the indicators buy a position for few days rally & then sell out & wait with minor put positions, sometimes I get stuck in the wrong position, but a stoploss saves major problems...

One thing is for sure we are in a bear market... In a bull market every one giving up targets is right & in a bear market anyone giving down target turns out right sooner or later...

A bear market in my experience atleast lasts for 1.5 years... the major bottom is usually made within a year...

 

[xtalk]

If you look at the nifty spot (weekly) since Jan'08...well, she is rolling on a downward rail. I don't know how low she'd go...

 

[pkamalesh]

 

[Czar]

sir..as dow and nasdaq are quite down and hit...do u still expect a gap up opening tomorrow???im holding 5 lots of 3800 puts..do i square off in the morning or hold it for a day or two???plzz suggest

Kamalesh: We are in a bear market with a downtrend, but no one can answer this que with surity, mostly all of us judge after break of certain levels, etc even the day dow fell 777 points that night I remember suggesting to you book part profits when you are not sure, We will fall, question is will we break this month or next or next & that question can only be answered as a reaction not a pre-emptive suggestion, in fact next morning I wrote post that asia was not that bad & thus indicative only a initial jerk in our markets... still you have the same position & same question & I have the same answer, nothings changed in 2 day

All what you ask & whatever I can answer is already in this thread, my views I keep updating every few hours even during markets hours, you got to read mine & other guys posts & take your own judgment call... that is the purpose of this thread, nobody will give you advice what you gotta or can do Sir...

 

[pkamalesh]

Kamalesh: We are in a bear market with a downtrend, but no one can answer this que with surity, mostly all of us judge after break of certain levels, etc even the day dow fell 777 points that night I remember suggesting to you book part profits when you are not sure, We will fall, question is will we break this month or next or next & that question can only be answered as a reaction not a pre-emptive suggestion, in fact next morning I wrote post that asia was not that bad & thus indicative only a initial jerk in our markets... still you have the same position & same question & I have the same answer, nothings changed in 2 day

All what you ask & whatever I can answer is already in this thread, my views I keep updating every few hours even during markets hours, you got to read mine & other guys posts & take your own judgment call... that is the purpose of this thread, nobody will give you advice what you gotta or can do Sir...

Hey sir...i know u asked me to book profits and as per ur advice i did..then again after the days high i have taken the puts sir..thats y i asked u this question.I think u have thought that im carrying the same position.I follow all you peoples advice sir and im greatful for it.Just wanted to clarify from you if markets would slip or continue the uprend.thats it...

 

[pkamalesh]

Kamalesh: We are in a bear market with a downtrend, but no one can answer this que with surity, mostly all of us judge after break of certain levels, etc even the day dow fell 777 points that night I remember suggesting to you book part profits when you are not sure, We will fall, question is will we break this month or next or next & that question can only be answered as a reaction not a pre-emptive suggestion, in fact next morning I wrote post that asia was not that bad & thus indicative only a initial jerk in our markets... still you have the same position & same question & I have the same answer, nothings changed in 2 day

All what you ask & whatever I can answer is already in this thread, my views I keep updating every few hours even during markets hours, you got to read mine & other guys posts & take your own judgment call... that is the purpose of this thread, nobody will give you advice what you gotta or can do Sir...

czar sir..just testing my trend lines ability..Do u agree with me that we have a limited upside upto 4100 only and a downside of below 3500 as ive interpreted..If any suggestions or rectifications plzz advice..

kammy

 

[orderflow13]

ADX rising,and o.i. pcr has a down word bias, we r going to short on every rise ( though i am experimenting with small amount buying nifty when hourly is strong, but its not positional, its just swing or scalp trading )

 

[Czar]

Saw the daily, see nothing suggesting a reversal eod as far as I can understand.. & regarding someone mentioning tails... there's no tail / doji's today, dont see spot, spot shows last close=open, NF is showing no tail... cause we opened on todays bottom... its more of a pull back similar to the one on 15.9.8, we may have to test 3850/60 region... in the next few days... upside poss 4250/4300 if we dont close below 3850.

done, thank u, but there's a possibility we test 3740 spot, if this are breaks...

We already tested 3850 approx today... so it should hold is the only condition...

As I said my views already given, so dow falling does not change our chart of yesterday right