Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)
- Thread starter Czar
- Start date
- Tags acd method logical trader nifty futures nifty positional trade nifty trading vix
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We have lost so many innocent lives and policemen. Black day for india , my mood is off.
Leave mkts , they may be down because of blasts , terrorists have other motives than making money frm mkts by killing people.
Mumbai was already on hitlist after delhi blasts but its those authorities dont take pre steps and policemen hired for 6-7k a month with their families lose lives. The top guns are always safe.
See u in the afternoon friends.
BTW Sgx indicating 100 point gap down
Leave mkts , they may be down because of blasts , terrorists have other motives than making money frm mkts by killing people.
Mumbai was already on hitlist after delhi blasts but its those authorities dont take pre steps and policemen hired for 6-7k a month with their families lose lives. The top guns are always safe.
See u in the afternoon friends.
BTW Sgx indicating 100 point gap down
Last edited:
Shaved ones : yellow
Filled ones : red
Filled ones : red
candles with no upper,lower or both shadows(wicks) are called shaved one.
Shaved candles are called marubozu.
what u care calling shaved one(yellow encircled) are not marubozu or shaved ones.
In fact some of red encircled candles are shaved ones.
hI mahesh !
I am sure whatever u are saying is correct. where did u read it ???
actually what i posted, was only me, my ideas !
I call em shaved, bcoz it sounds opposite of filled to me
and most importantly, does'nt matter what we call them does it ???
Thanx for the theoritical class anyways..
BTW, i think u missed the POINT that i am mentioning there, i have tried to distinguish the difference between ....hmm leave it
I am sure whatever u are saying is correct. where did u read it ???
actually what i posted, was only me, my ideas !
I call em shaved, bcoz it sounds opposite of filled to me
and most importantly, does'nt matter what we call them does it ???
Thanx for the theoritical class anyways..
BTW, i think u missed the POINT that i am mentioning there, i have tried to distinguish the difference between ....hmm leave it
Last edited:
Copy-Pasted :
"The marubozu is formed when the days trading range is dominated in one direction. A true marubozu candle has no shadow. This is significant because a solid candle(blue on my charts) indicates that buyers were in charge all day long. The opposite being true if the candle is hollow(red on my charts), signifying the sellers were in charge for the entire trading session.
The reason why a marubozu is important is because it signifies an extreme. Extremes mean opportunity. It is not often you get such buying that the price is driven in one direction all day long. "
"The marubozu is formed when the days trading range is dominated in one direction. A true marubozu candle has no shadow. This is significant because a solid candle(blue on my charts) indicates that buyers were in charge all day long. The opposite being true if the candle is hollow(red on my charts), signifying the sellers were in charge for the entire trading session.
The reason why a marubozu is important is because it signifies an extreme. Extremes mean opportunity. It is not often you get such buying that the price is driven in one direction all day long. "
hI mahesh !
I am sure whatever u are saying is correct. where did u read it ???
actually what i posted, was only me, my ideas !
I call em shaved, bcoz it sounds opposite of filled to me
and most importantly, does'nt matter what we call them does it ???
Thanx for the theoritical class anyways..
BTW, i think u missed the POINT that i am mentioning there, i have tried to distinguish the difference between ....hmm leave it
I am sure whatever u are saying is correct. where did u read it ???
actually what i posted, was only me, my ideas !
I call em shaved, bcoz it sounds opposite of filled to me
and most importantly, does'nt matter what we call them does it ???
Thanx for the theoritical class anyways..
BTW, i think u missed the POINT that i am mentioning there, i have tried to distinguish the difference between ....hmm leave it
Dear it appears that I inadvertently offended u.
There was no class and no erudition.
Please remember we all boarders are with different attitude,knowledge base or belief system; but we all are here with one common aim and that is to earn money and for that we all keep continuous learning.
Now the point, "does it matter"?
For newbies like me the answer is "yes".
When,What we read in the textbook is different from what we read in posts of experienced players, it's quite obvious that we shall seek clarification to clear our doubts.
See,I raised the point and got the answer.Else I would have remained confused all the while.
Now when this point is clear I can now come to the next point which you wanted to convey.
Hope it clarifies.
regards
mahesh
Guys, here is an interesting article by one of an experts...very interesting read:
The 8-Year Cycle and its implications
The Sensex is assumed to be under a larger 8-year cycle ever since its birth. As shown on the chart below, '1984 was the beginning of 8-year long bull-run till '1992. In my Super-Cycle Degree count, shown on ASA Long-Term chart under a separate paragraph, I have, in fact, taken 1984 as the beginning point for the most dynamic 3rd wave.
The next two important turning points occurred exactly 8 years thereafter, in '1992 and '2000. Both these turning points were marked by stock market scams, because of which the leaders of the rally had extremely difficult time later. For example, ACC, the leading stock of '1992 bull market, remained below its highs till end of '2004. Similarly, the IT stocks, which were leaders of '2000 rally, lost as much as 90% of their top valuations by the year '2003, and most are below their top levels even today.
This year, we were sitting on this very important cycle, which therefore, has thrown up similar possibilities.
Remember, every 8 years, market does see a deep cut in valuations. In the previous 8-year cycle top during 1992-93, Sensex lost 56% from 4546 to 1980. In the next cycle top, the cut was almost 58% from 6150 in 2000 to 2594 in 2001. Time-wise, 1992 cycle completed the bear phase in 12-16 months, while the 2000 cycle took 19 months only to hit the low, which was then followed by 19 months of base formation before bull phase could begin again.
I had, accordingly, targeted sub-10k levels for Sensex price-wise, and a minimum of 13 months into bear phase time-wise. Though the price targets have been achieved, the time targets are yet to be achieved. Remember, in technical analysis, both time and price forecasts must be achieved. Long-term investors should, therefore, wait till then. As long as Sensex keeps on making lower highs, the bear phase continues.
Besides price \ time damage, I have been mentioning scam as a usual occurrence after 8-year cycle top. In the current cycle, this may have, or will unfold further in the Global financial markets. The size of the figures will, therefore, be much larger than the earlier ones, and so will be the number of people involved in it.
Furthermore, the history shows that the bull always goes to jail.
Another parameter that leads to the actual lowest value of the bear cycle is the catastrophic event. Such event would be a terrible disaster or accident, especially the one that leads to a great loss of life. The last two cycles had seen terrorist activities, serial blast in Mumbai during 1993 and WTC tower collapse during 2001.
These events happen suddenly, without any warning, and their catastrophic proportions are not known even while they are happening. During 1993, one blast would have been normal, but 13 serially proved catastrophic. During 2001, 1st hit could have been an accident, but two in succession was catastrophic.
These events led to such desperation that the lows created thereafter were never ever broken again, Sensex low of 1980 during 1993 and 2584 during 2001.
Ironically, therefore, such events did, and will provide the best of the investment opportunity to an investor, who is able to take it when it comes. If so, we could be on watch, from now till whenever it occurs. Perhaps, the 13th month, i.e. February2009 could be the focused time zone.
The 8-Year Cycle and its implications
The Sensex is assumed to be under a larger 8-year cycle ever since its birth. As shown on the chart below, '1984 was the beginning of 8-year long bull-run till '1992. In my Super-Cycle Degree count, shown on ASA Long-Term chart under a separate paragraph, I have, in fact, taken 1984 as the beginning point for the most dynamic 3rd wave.
The next two important turning points occurred exactly 8 years thereafter, in '1992 and '2000. Both these turning points were marked by stock market scams, because of which the leaders of the rally had extremely difficult time later. For example, ACC, the leading stock of '1992 bull market, remained below its highs till end of '2004. Similarly, the IT stocks, which were leaders of '2000 rally, lost as much as 90% of their top valuations by the year '2003, and most are below their top levels even today.
This year, we were sitting on this very important cycle, which therefore, has thrown up similar possibilities.
Remember, every 8 years, market does see a deep cut in valuations. In the previous 8-year cycle top during 1992-93, Sensex lost 56% from 4546 to 1980. In the next cycle top, the cut was almost 58% from 6150 in 2000 to 2594 in 2001. Time-wise, 1992 cycle completed the bear phase in 12-16 months, while the 2000 cycle took 19 months only to hit the low, which was then followed by 19 months of base formation before bull phase could begin again.
I had, accordingly, targeted sub-10k levels for Sensex price-wise, and a minimum of 13 months into bear phase time-wise. Though the price targets have been achieved, the time targets are yet to be achieved. Remember, in technical analysis, both time and price forecasts must be achieved. Long-term investors should, therefore, wait till then. As long as Sensex keeps on making lower highs, the bear phase continues.
Besides price \ time damage, I have been mentioning scam as a usual occurrence after 8-year cycle top. In the current cycle, this may have, or will unfold further in the Global financial markets. The size of the figures will, therefore, be much larger than the earlier ones, and so will be the number of people involved in it.
Furthermore, the history shows that the bull always goes to jail.
Another parameter that leads to the actual lowest value of the bear cycle is the catastrophic event. Such event would be a terrible disaster or accident, especially the one that leads to a great loss of life. The last two cycles had seen terrorist activities, serial blast in Mumbai during 1993 and WTC tower collapse during 2001.
These events happen suddenly, without any warning, and their catastrophic proportions are not known even while they are happening. During 1993, one blast would have been normal, but 13 serially proved catastrophic. During 2001, 1st hit could have been an accident, but two in succession was catastrophic.
These events led to such desperation that the lows created thereafter were never ever broken again, Sensex low of 1980 during 1993 and 2584 during 2001.
Ironically, therefore, such events did, and will provide the best of the investment opportunity to an investor, who is able to take it when it comes. If so, we could be on watch, from now till whenever it occurs. Perhaps, the 13th month, i.e. February2009 could be the focused time zone.
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