Nifty Futures Trading Part 2 (Positional)

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orderflow13

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OK first thing first what is avox..well when vix goes down and oi pcr goes up its bullish and avox will go up same for bearish and when vix goes down but oi pcr also goes down then its neutral vis versa
calculation is very simple..
v2-v1=v & o2-o1=o
where v2 and v1= todays and y day's vix closing price respectively.
o2 & o1 = oi pcr of todays and y day's respectively
...
AVOX = 100- ( v-o )
now, market profile is deep subject, already segul covered in his thread..to get more detail information about market action time,price and instead of using volume using avox ( open interest build up in options wd be substitute for volume ) and change in implied volatility will give sense of fear factor in market..in short i try to get much more information about market in algorithm term as possible
must add its not an indicator or buy / sell signal nor any magic wand its just market generated info thats it which help to focus on what market is actually saying and interpret likewise and not interpreting our own version and involving ME in trade ( cant thanks saint sir more enough for teaching us relentlessly what market is and generate profit out of it, hope the learning process will carry on ).
Given one example on chart..market action at 22.12.08 market profile was 'P' letter shaped which indicates bulls are getting tired and & cuz of lack of fresh buying market not going up and avox was already closed down which indicates further weakness.
All the best folks
Alex
p.s. sorry czar my utter laziness for making new thread made me post here, sorry for adding in ur agony :)
Some additions that i want to share... the above method of calculating avox depends on vix as mentioned above, but sadly nse india updates vix on EOD basis, so if some one want to calculate vix ( or implied volatility ) the PCR ( note- not open interest pcr ) WILL DO THE JOB...divide 10 active pe / 10 active call nd u get the hint of implied volatility..whenever implied volatility increases option value increases so higher is the pcr higher is implied volatility ...
though VIX wd be more transperent thing than pcr but few technical analyst do use it... infact economic times analyst made SMART MONEY RATIO ( SMR) calculations of SMR = o i pcr / pcr ...avox and smr wd give same signals
Alex
P.S. ATTACHING EXCEL WHICH CALCULATES SMART MONEY INDX, i consider only 10 most active options so my pcr fig and other calculations wd be bit different, but i found this is the more transparent way to look at option induced information.
imp note - I am not an excel expert my very good friend who is also a traderji member made this excel on my request by sacrificing his sleep ( hide his name intentionally because i dnt want others bombard him with queries ) .
any queries regarding excel wont get any answers just found ur way around there r so many excel experts in tj :)
All the best traderji team.
 
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orderflow13

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Now it wd be a great help if any team member come up with an idea so that we can feed this excel data ( OLY FINAL CALCULATION ) to amibroker in real time then i will really appreciate it.I heard F chart is more friendly for excel it fchart can solve the problem then no issues any trading software will do just need to find a way to import statistical data in to graphical representation
Alex
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
Bank Nifty has reached a LOW.




After rapid fall during the few days earlier ,it has seen some CONSOLIDATION
now.
 
Bank Nifty has reached a LOW.




After rapid fall during the few days earlier ,it has seen some CONSOLIDATION
now.
Hi columbus ,

As usual I do not agree that bank nifty has reached its low , banking sector is one sector which has not been badly hit in last one year (as compared to other sectors ) , so what u are assuming Consolidation , it may be a Pause before a bigger fall (In shorter time frame u may see a bounce but if u look little longer prospective then their is paatal below this point)


Devan
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
In shorter time frame u may see a bounce but if u look little longer prospective then their is paatal below this point.

Devan
It is apt,I am talking about SHORTER time frame only.

Earlier part October saw precious metals moving higher and higher ,but
by October third week we saw year low of indices.
 

the tape

Well-Known Member
Hi ! :)

This is SBI's monthly chart i am posting to get a bit more hint on nifty's movement in the time to come. i have chosen SBI because it's a nifty heavyweight and i have seen all biggies monthly chart's and this one is showing me just what i can recognize. those who think sbi's movement will not at all be correlated to movement of nifty, ignore it


Yellow circle is where the maximum participation took place in 04-05. red ticks are the bearish formations that are yet to be played. Price must come to 500 to decide what it wants to do next. timing is difficult.

 
C

Czar

Guest
Hi !

This is SBI's monthly chart i am posting to get a bit more hint on nifty's movement in the time to come. i have chosen SBI because it's a nifty heavyweight and i have seen all biggies monthly chart's and this one is showing me just what i can recognize. those who think sbi's movement will not at all be correlated to movement of nifty, ignore it


Yellow circle is where the maximum participation took place in 04-05. red ticks are the bearish formations that are yet to be played. Price must come to 500 to decide what it wants to do next. timing is difficult.

So we wonder what could break the Nifty to 3200 Levels, well one candidate is SBI, possible forming an H&S, if clicks, could show sub 800 levels & cause heavy damage in Nifty index...



So finally our charts have agreed to get married :D

but since I had shown that earlier the thing is monthly charts & pattern take ages to form...
 
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