Nifty Futures Trading

[Czar]

Great post Sunil, Missed your post 2 days ??? & yes My own analysis tallies with 4950 figure, lets see... expecting possibility of a correction till approx 14.650 which I guess tallies with your 4.4k

 

[Sunil]

now, I have learnt from Satyajit da & Asish da that, for trendlines. logarithmically-adjusted-on-scale charts are preferred...
(1000 to 2000 is 100% of 1000, but from 2000 to 3000 is 50% of 2000, though diff. in both ranges is 1000 - so, log adjustment is required)

so, i re-adjusted the "congress support" chart to log scale

here, i found that uptrend from May 2004 to Jan 2008 was actually in a channel (this time i made sure that rajaram's condition for a channel is satisfied)
Nifty met with resistance at exactly it's higher level of channel on Jan 2008, and it broke this long term channel during last week of May 08, when it CLOSED below 5000.
That was the NAIL on its coffin..

I would specially request asish da & satyajit da to confirm whether this monthly chart is valid.

Next, I am not sure about this, but I have read this somewhere that when a channel breaks on downside, the lower line of channel is again tested before fall resumes. Is this true/technically correct????????????????????

If yes, then this intermediate uptrend from 3790 should meet its FULL STOP IN 5000 REGION

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Hi rrdk, Can u please elaborate a bit on this for the less informed!!!
Thanks

theta is a greek that measures erosion in the value of options due to time....A otm put or call is filled only with theta value ... there are two other important greeks - delta and vega ..
delta measures options sensitivity to changes in the price of the underlying while vega is a measure of an options sensitivity to changes in the volatility of the underlying .... usually put options carry higher vega than calls when the markets have volatility more on the downside but doesnt neccasarily apply the other way around...
there is an options calculator from peter hoadley(there are plenty available but i use hoadley) that attempts to measure all greeks but there again most of these calculators doesnt necessarily capture all the greed and fear that exists in the marketplace which affects the options price..

 

[renu daga]

very nice sunil,,

good work,,only one,,!!why didnt u count nifty seasonfrom 930 were the rally started overall

well i ahve tried all teh fib levels whihc u have posted ,,and put them on chart and the trend lien sequence u are talking about..as per that channel nifty lost faith several times closing below the trend line ,and closing above the trend,,

i hope this will help

renu

 

[Czar]

We had a Monthly channel which developed later into a Rising wedge, but now the wedge has broken down but the monthly lower trendline has still survived this fall

 

[renu daga]

now a su say the lower line agian tested,,and by that we meanin monthly terms we can again test not 5000..but 5250,,thats teh lower side of channel,,but tahts bigger time frame,,

renu

 

[renu daga]

czar ,, that wedge on mnthly chart counts no imp,,,because we are away from that trend..which is finished / nullified...

just look we are now in falling wedge in monthly charts,,,
anyone can throw light on this now,,

renu

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

sunil , this is always on my trading desk ..... for all others find enc.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

we all know how crucial this level is 4530-4620(it is a 33 % retracement zone for the rally from 920-6357, 50% retracement level for the bear rally from 5300-3790 and 33% retrace for the rally from 6357-3790) ..nifty can only go two ways from here either rally up or break down...

sunil , this was posted on aug 7th ... i could recollect you and czar mention these fib levels often hence comes as a surprise when you mentioned this 50% retrace level as an important level today

 

[mitasatyajit]

now, I have learnt from Satyajit da & Asish da that, for trendlines. logarithmically-adjusted-on-scale charts are preferred...
(1000 to 2000 is 100% of 1000, but from 2000 to 3000 is 50% of 2000, though diff. in both ranges is 1000 - so, log adjustment is required)

so, i re-adjusted the "congress support" chart to log scale

here, i found that uptrend from May 2004 to Jan 2008 was actually in a channel (this time i made sure that rajaram's condition for a channel is satisfied)
Nifty met with resistance at exactly it's higher level of channel on Jan 2008, and it broke this long term channel during last week of May 08, when it CLOSED below 5000.
That was the NAIL on its coffin..

I would specially request asish da & satyajit da to confirm whether this monthly chart is valid.

Next, I am not sure about this, but I have read this somewhere that when a channel breaks on downside, the lower line of channel is again tested before fall resumes. Is this true/technically correct????????????????????

If yes, then this intermediate uptrend from 3790 should meet its FULL STOP IN 5000 REGION

At first u say about ur absence for last days. Have u submitted leave application to Ashisda ? If not please do it immediately.

Here is one chart, I tried for Nifty (long term).

http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/18953-nifty-futures-trading-1016.html#post202028

Regards.