let's have a look of recent day lows on LL basis:
SPOT: 4497 - 4464 - 4376 - 4363
FUT: 4505 - 4470 - 4370 - 4362
Now, as pointed out today morning about the multiple layers of supports at sub 4500 level ie 4495-85-75-65...
Global conditions, as of now, indicate that these will be broken by gap down open.
Initial look out for support at spot 4465 (S2) & 4450.
Next important key supports lie in SPOT 4375-4370 region. Short term moving averages are also in this region. 50% retracement support of 4150-4650 rise lies at 4400.
I would be looking for going longs at these levels for intraday reversal.
Depending on global conditions in morning, a positional Call option with stop of below spot 4315 (the KING of RSR levels) can be taken.
Let's see the conditions prevalent in the morning... for confirming the intraday swing trades.
Big or small, gap down is for sure... that mean, the LH, LL formation since Tuesday would remain intact when yesterday's LOD breaks.
Now,
I just noticed that, in this LL, LH setup, the average difference between the two LL is around 25 points, so SPOT can open around/take support from 4475 level
This is one of the key sub-4500 supports, but it's in a grey zone between S1 & S2..
The key SPOT levels are:
SUPPORTS:
(loads of support in sub-4500 area)
4495 - yesterday's LOD and
S1 for today.
4485
4475 - likely opening level (4475-4485)
4465 - not just
S2, but also the last low of the three day consolidation in range of 4500-4600
4450
Global conditions, as of now, suggest that these levels may hold atleast till 12pm, and from there, EU, HS and long wekend factor will decide weakness or strength of these levels.
RESISTANCES:
4540 - the Pivotal level for today, in yesterday's last hour rally, it met resistance in this area
4575 - the level for bulls to look out for to break this three day LL, LH setup. Similiarly, fresh shorts created today in 4500-4540-4560 levels will have to keep this as STOP. Also,
R1 for today.
4600 - this will be a mere psychological resistance level, once this LL LH setup is broken past 4575.
R2 for today
So, we have two possible intraday swing trades for today:
1. Buy at Spot 4475/85 level with SL below 4465
2. Short at Spot 4535/40 with SL above 4575... (this is dicey, try to split trade in two parts - one entry near 4540 and one entry near 4560 (in short, if you want less risk, try to enter near the SL - obviously, one never knows at 4540, whether it will go upto 4560 - will have to look out for other clues like TBQs, etc)
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