Nifty Futures Trading

[arnav_rulz]

Arnav,

What can I comment...??? !!!

You have hit the nail right on spot. You have perfectly described the two scenarios viz from coming week's point of view & nearly till or week before expiry point of view. They have covered all my doubts...

Your argument & your suggestion seems correct to me. In this week, if we indeed have a correction (before next week's rally), then a long put option will be more profitable than a short call option (due to time value)....
Infact, another important aspect is to choose the strike price smartly & reasonably...

Buying deep OTM puts when you r bearish just because they are cheap, & expecting a deep gash of october falls, is not a good idea.


The thought process actually started early morning when I read Economic Times' Monday special - Investor Guide.
Advice to those already holding long positions: Book profits as & when Nifty approaches 3200-3250. If want to hedge, then buying 3200 PUT is recommended.
Reason = Volatility being as low as it is, it might happen that any loss in the intrinsic value of 3200 put is compensated enough by a rise in its time value.

Thanks a million, Arnav...
Looking forward to more such "long" posts (I plan to put it in our Library thread; I guess hedging is also a setup for overnight positions)

Sunil i will be most happy to Type More of such Long Posts on topics i have a bit experience on..

Srry for not being very active in the thread these days... Caz i have been very buzy with my CA classes .. And thus have been almost out of trading also since the start of Jan trading ...

Hope to be more active as soon as possible and learn more things from you guys ..

 

[Sunil]

Trading with Nifty Futures is risky what i have experienced from it. I had been trading this market and use to trade nifty. However, very few times I could make profitable trades. Most of the times I have faced losses.

Long time back, i read somewhere in the forum about a person facing the same problem.

Someone advised him not to be disheartened & to continue his chart analysis after market close and to write down his trading strategies for next day.
Next day, when trade begins in the morning, just do exactly OPPOSITE of what you have written.


I guess it worked for him, coz it had worked for me.

The problem lies not with the market, but it MAY lie in us.
Our Brain-eye co-ordination, chart analysis & trade entry may be wrong - BECAUSE THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT...
Why not look into things with a different perspective...
Why not wait patiently for KEY levels to reach/break on pullbacks, rather than running after a missed bus after a big breakout, after others are already alighting the bus, coz they see the "destination" is near.
Why not believe in the power of charts rather than believe in what others are posting.... what u see, is what others are seeing...

there's a very good thread by rajtheroyal recapping the whole 2008 - he is showing how simple chart patterns (CA Knowledge) could give decent profit in trading - forget technical blah blah blah

here's the thread's link

 

[knarendra]

Trading with Nifty Futures is risky what i have experienced from it. I had been trading this market and use to trade nifty. However, very few times I could make profitable trades. Most of the times I have faced losses.

Even travelling is risky.So, you cannt travel to anywhere?

 

[myvineet]

Sunil i will be most happy to Type More of such Long Posts on topics i have a bit experience on..

Srry for not being very active in the thread these days... Caz i have been very buzy with my CA classes .. And thus have been almost out of trading also since the start of Jan trading ...

Hope to be more active as soon as possible and learn more things from you guys ..

arnav all the best for ur CA classes...

hope we will get some discount on auditing TJ members account....

 

[columbus]

I am hearing bulls calling RSI:

Rascal Stupid Idiot

!!!

But in a poll asking for best indicator ,it was voted as most favoured
indicator.

 

[orderflow13]

Qs. specially to ALex and those who hedge their positions often...:

what is more advisable for a long position in a scrip - selling its ATM call or buying ATM put?

what's your experience?

Put 3100 is now at 187

Sunil sorry for late response was bit bz, well hedging scrip is pain in neck compare to hedging nifty, arnav precisely mentioned on nifty hedging but if I have overnight position in say hdil and its Friday so I will look for way to hedge it now pain begins..most imp is liquidity in stock options except few active stocks like ril,satyam other stocks has very less option liquidity.And most stock options r insanely priced hdil trading at 143 n 140 ce is at 16 !! hdil is famous for higher volatility so we may consider 16 is appropriate but how Can I hedge it? I come with my solution years back..answer is pair trading ..there r two types of hedgingpassive hedging and aggressive hedging, in passive hedging u dnt risk single penny n in aggressive hedging u risk a bit but same time cut down the beta value ( in laymen term negating the market risk )i will look for other scrip from same sector ( ex unitech,dlf) and see which stock is strong, so I will buy that scrip against short position of hdil ..n it works good, only problem is few time u dnt gt stronger scrips in same sector, at that time I dnt hedge as its clear indication of bearish market.

 

[Sunil]

higher lows, with a fixed resistance level 3136

ascending triangle at work

gets negated on break of prev HL

 

[Sunil]

higher lows, with a fixed resistance level 3136

ascending triangle at work

gets negated on break of prev HL

WOWWWWWWWWWWW

should give rectangle's target
1mn RSI permitting

 

[kalwarik]

nifty start moving

 

[Sunil]

just for study sake:

1min RSI has cooled off...
made a lower low, while nifty did not...

long entry should be when nifty fut breaks 3136 again soon...