Nifty Futures Trading
- Thread starter uasish
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4800 Here We Come ?? Three patterns If i made two of them correctly suggest Yes 4800 is the ultimate Target !!
Wolfe Target By Ajax Sir :-
However my weekly target for Nifty is ~ 4800 as posted way back in
October 2008 ( see chart above)
Bullish Flag Target:-
Falling Flag --> I referred this http://www.1daytradingstockadviceandpicks.com/chartpatterns/lesson1/fallingflag.htm
Wolfe Target By Ajax Sir :-
However my weekly target for Nifty is ~ 4800 as posted way back in
October 2008 ( see chart above)
Bullish Flag Target:-
Falling Flag --> I referred this http://www.1daytradingstockadviceandpicks.com/chartpatterns/lesson1/fallingflag.htm
Last edited:
Lots of happennings the Week Ahead
The movement in the market for the last couple of weeks has been suggesting that everyone was worried about the direction of the market. Though the market has been rallying for the last 13 weeks, people still did not seem to be fully convinced about the further strong upside from these levels. This has lead to some profit booking at the higher level. On the other hand, short covering has also been witnessed at the downside. The domestic funds seems to be putting in money resisting the sharp fall.
Next week India's industrial production data is due for April. This should have some impact on the market.
In the global space, there would be some important economic data including UK and Euro Zone industrial production for April, Japan Q1 GDP and US advance retail sales for May.
This will likely affect the market sentiment.
But which way remains to be seen, keep a strict SL on your positions but keep a bias on the positive side
Cheers
The movement in the market for the last couple of weeks has been suggesting that everyone was worried about the direction of the market. Though the market has been rallying for the last 13 weeks, people still did not seem to be fully convinced about the further strong upside from these levels. This has lead to some profit booking at the higher level. On the other hand, short covering has also been witnessed at the downside. The domestic funds seems to be putting in money resisting the sharp fall.
Next week India's industrial production data is due for April. This should have some impact on the market.
In the global space, there would be some important economic data including UK and Euro Zone industrial production for April, Japan Q1 GDP and US advance retail sales for May.
This will likely affect the market sentiment.
But which way remains to be seen, keep a strict SL on your positions but keep a bias on the positive side
Cheers
The Pole and Pennant/Flag pattern is ok - I agree with that.
The WW needs to be confirmed thru seniors namely Ajax (i think he has already given 4800 as weekly target long back)
AND
the bias is positive --- sell-offs are being bought into, volumes are low. Call writers are afraid to write calls, Puts are available aplenty (prices not increasing when mkt moves down but falling sharply when mkt moves up) -- leads to only one logical conclusion
BUT
the market has a mind of its own and queer are its ways to reach its goals
The WW needs to be confirmed thru seniors namely Ajax (i think he has already given 4800 as weekly target long back)
AND
the bias is positive --- sell-offs are being bought into, volumes are low. Call writers are afraid to write calls, Puts are available aplenty (prices not increasing when mkt moves down but falling sharply when mkt moves up) -- leads to only one logical conclusion
BUT
the market has a mind of its own and queer are its ways to reach its goals
My Nifty Analysis - June 6, 2009
My Analysis.
Here's how I see it. Note that I do all my analysis on Spot Nifty (no particular reason).
If indeed the elections were a game-changer, we want to still use technical tools, but give greater credence to more recent price action. This also allows more accurate forecasting as the fundamentals don't change drastically, but it is not so short as to let in much noise.
So I used the Fibonacci Projection tool, using the following parameters:
Start Date: 05/19/09
Start Value: 4501
End Date: 5/26/09
End Value: 4088
Projection Date: 06/05/09
Projection Value: 4630
This gives a first target, which should have the highest probability of being achieved, of 4533 (at 23.6%). If and only if that is achieved, and the price doesn't start moving back up toward 4630, then we can look a the Nifty going to 4426 (at 50%). I find in my experience that 23.6% and 50% are important levels, but 38.2% is not as useful for trading purposes, thus ignored here.
Given that we closed around 4587, that gives more than a 50-point play right away (assuming we don't get a large gap-down on Monday), and if we can build some downside momentum on the break, then a ~160 point play.
Monday should be interesting.
My Analysis.
Here's how I see it. Note that I do all my analysis on Spot Nifty (no particular reason).
If indeed the elections were a game-changer, we want to still use technical tools, but give greater credence to more recent price action. This also allows more accurate forecasting as the fundamentals don't change drastically, but it is not so short as to let in much noise.
So I used the Fibonacci Projection tool, using the following parameters:
Start Date: 05/19/09
Start Value: 4501
End Date: 5/26/09
End Value: 4088
Projection Date: 06/05/09
Projection Value: 4630
This gives a first target, which should have the highest probability of being achieved, of 4533 (at 23.6%). If and only if that is achieved, and the price doesn't start moving back up toward 4630, then we can look a the Nifty going to 4426 (at 50%). I find in my experience that 23.6% and 50% are important levels, but 38.2% is not as useful for trading purposes, thus ignored here.
Given that we closed around 4587, that gives more than a 50-point play right away (assuming we don't get a large gap-down on Monday), and if we can build some downside momentum on the break, then a ~160 point play.
Monday should be interesting.
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| A | Trading Nifty futures with Alchemist | Trading Diary | 2 | |
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