Nifty Futures Trading

[myvineet]

hi sunil bhai ...

yaar, yeh 16 june ko kya hain ???

 

[parttimetrader]

Believe it or not... it is not the bears who do the price damage. The actual price fall is ALWAYS due to long unwinding. Actually short-sellers are the ONLY natural buyers of securities. That is why the Nifty moved from 2800 to 3600 almost in a straight line, because people kept shorting and were forced to cover constantly, adding fuel to the upmove.

At this time, all short-sellers have been squeezed out, burnt after the post-election jam. Thus there is no buying support in the market. When sentiment turns (as it did today because of the horribly backward looking recommendations on FDI in retail and unproductive tinkering with STT), institutions wanted to sell, and there were no buyers. Result: Price Collapse.

My 150-point play from 4587 that I spoke of yday using Fibo Projections, is already done! Even I was a little surprised at the speed.

Let's see tomorrow's price action. Will be critical for future direction.

 

[Sunil]

Nope, i think he is predicting 16th as Another giraffe day, A giraffe who will drink water or eat leaves is what v have to wait and watch !!

I wont call it predicting actually, im sure Sunil bhai has a reason or stats behind it.. !

Newcomers to this thread may not be aware that Arnav is actually my younger bro whom I lost in NSE Kumbh Mela held whenever 29-Feb falls on a Thursday. (Rarest of rare expiry day) (SOmeone can verify when was such occurance, and when it will happen next)
;-)


Coming back to 16-June, it's just a guess/probability of the next NR4-2 or NR7 or IB day effect, like it was meant for today (though, the magnitude was nearly double than the expected). It's a wild stats guess based on the excel file I update in the mechanical trading thread every week).
Rest, as they say, que sera sera!!!

not "goody" enough, but Friday was an NR7 day for both Nifty Spot & Fut

Day Range of 100pts (beating Friday's Range) :thumb:

After breaking Friday's low of 4560, it has made a good resistance at same level.

 

[jamit_05]

Newcomers to this thread may not be aware that Arnav is actually my younger bro whom I lost in NSE Kumbh Mela held whenever 29-Feb falls on a Thursday. (Rarest of rare expiry day) (SOmeone can verify when was such occurance, and when it will happen next)
;-)


Coming back to 16-June, it's just a guess/probability of the next NR4-2 or NR7 or IB day effect, like it was meant for today (though, the magnitude was nearly double than the expected). It's a wild stats guess based on the excel file I update in the mechanical trading thread every week).
Rest, as they say, que sera sera!!!

Sunil bhai,

Each time I read your posts more questions prop up. So I shall run the risk of sounding silly....

Now, I have a list of 15 stocks which can be traded using Miniflow (or so I think). So, does it make sense to filter this list each day based on NR4-2 and NR-7 and trade these select candidates using miniflow method?

While I await your answer, I am checking out the historical data?

Amit.

 

[Sunil]

Sunil bhai,

Each time I read your posts more questions prop up. So I shall run the risk of sounding silly....

Now, I have a list of 15 stocks which can be traded using Miniflow (or so I think). So, does it make sense to filter this list each day based on NR4-2 and NR-7 and trade these select candidates using miniflow method?

While I await your answer, I am checking out the historical data?

Amit.

No gain w/o pain...
Infact, I am trying to do the same when u suggested it last week. Problem lies in the scrip selection. Historical testing is needed - make sure that you backtest FUTURE scrips, even if u intend to trade in CASH segment.

 

[Sunil]

risking small portion of today's profit, went long at close near spot 4400...
1min & 5min RSI terribly OS.
can't leave 4450 (prev. 5 day low) w/o a re-test

If there's a gap down tomorrow, I'll add more to longs
Pain starts, if goes below 4350...

Merci beaucoup

The invisible low of SPOT is 4365.

 

[jamit_05]

No gain w/o pain...
Infact, I am trying to do the same when u suggested it last week. Problem lies in the scrip selected. Historical testing is needed - make sure that you backtest FUTURE scrips, even if u intend to trade in CASH segment.

I am glad you remembered

Cuz scrips like ster, HDIL, RCAP, TATASteel, to name a few, have very good moves... only if we can sieve out the noisy days to an extent

 

[Sunil]

Any divergence based on any indicator has to be confirmed FIRSTLY & FOREMOSTLY by price action.
If you spot a +ve divergence in a particular Timeframe chart, then go long when a pivot high (based on the same TF) breaks on upside.
Similiarly, in case of a -ve divergence, go short when the concerned pivot low is broken.
Divergence based on oscillators usually have their effect lasting till the said oscillator reaches its opposite side (eg., around 70 & 30, in case of RSI)
So, one can book part or most of the profits in this oscillator zone, and trail the rest.

Today, there was +ve divergence in RSI 1min chart, and it did its bit.
+ve divergence has also developed in 5min chart, but we still have to wait for the latest pivot high formed in 5min chart. Another supporting factor is the oversold status of 5min RSI.

Usually, good divergence effects are seen near known big supports & resistance levels - they can be known from this very thread by Nishikant.

Interestingly, the 2nd 5min bar's high of 4430 is THE pivot high which ultimately gave face to 5min +ve divergence.
Spot's 5min RSI is already at around 60.

 

[Sunil]

YIPEEEEEEEEE!!!

5min RSI at 70+
Nifty retraced 38%
50% lies at 4510, which is a good PH
locking in majority

 

[Sunil]

Fine-tuning of divergence trading for me goes to learn2trade08 & tryin2trade
Thank you.