Nifty Futures Trading

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deb99891

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Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

tsunil4u said:
CORRECTIONS IN A BEAR MARKET (NIFTY):

PEAK YEAR BOTTOM YEAR PEAK VALUE BOTTOM VALUE Value of Fall FALL % Period of Correction

APR 1992 APR 1993 1281 600 681 53% 12 Months
FEB 2000 SEP 2001 1818 850 968 53% 20 Months
JAN 2008 So Far 6357 3848 2509 39% 6 Months



Just for statistical knowledge, 53% fall from 6357 (jan 08) = 2990
:eek:
Click to expand...
good analysis sunil
really helpfull
keep up ur nice work:):)
 
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tinchu76

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#7,514
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Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

tsunil4u said:
Which is the favourite quarter of NIFTY???


Quarterly Returns %

YEAR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 -22.91 -14.45 -- --

2007 -3.19 13.27 16.45 22.15

2006 19.94 -7.64 15.15 10.92

2005 -2.23 9.57 17.74 9.22

2004 -5.80 -14.59 16.84 19.48

2003 -10.64 17.12 26.42 32.61





hmm.... so we buy at start of Q3 (ie in July) and sell at end of Q4 (ie in december)....:cool:

;)
Click to expand...


Thanks for detailed reports. You really burn midnight oil inspite of crude touching high.
 
Sunil

Sunil

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#7,515
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Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

Since 30 June, Nifty is gyrating in the band of 3850-4150 (a tight 300 pt range) with majority of days being gap openings.

I feel this is the same kind of movement/consolidation which took place during 25 March to 15 April, the band being 4600-4900. When 4900 broke, there was nearly a one way rally till 5300 (400 pts), and 4600 had become a good base.

It did not break that easily but had a 1-2-3 style in abt 7 sessions. After that, it has just been sliding down...



Today, if SPOT manages to close above 4115, then we can look forward to such April rally, with an initial target of around 4325/4350.

Yesterday, it seems the local political situation has been taken in a bullish manner by the market. Overnight, with some FED announcements & Oil cooling down, the market can today test the 4115 wall.


Spot Levels to look at the upmove:

4020
4035 - eopugh to close yesterday's gap down
4050
4065 - had become a supporting base during most of Monday's trade.
4190
4115 - the all-important level of resistance. I doubt if this can break today in ONE attempt. Some bull hammering may be required.


These levels also act as support level once nifty moves past them.
So, if we have a big gap up (even past 4065, as SGX is suggesting now), then wait for initial reaction at 4100 and then try to re-enter at 4065 level. (or any such level which today's chart will indicate).

But, if 4115 breaks and is sustained at open, then 4090/4100 is a good entry level.
 
Sunil

Sunil

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Re: Time to Stick my Neck Out ,Nifty 7300

Personally, I feel Nifty should still consolidate for few more sessions till Infosys results...

Perfect deja vu of April, when Infosys good results gave a big breakout on the upside....

I think, result is on Friday, so a breakout can be expected from this 3850-4150-range, be it on anyside.... atleast a positional/directional trade can be taken after that....

Options traders - forget neutral strategies like straddle, strangle.... the premiums are still high and not favouring risk/reward ratio....



Anyways, let's take one day at a time
 
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