Nifty Futures Trading

[uasish]

If UPA falls,we only have 400 points cushion of Nifty Fut.

 

[tinchu76]

obviously, if UPA survives with SP support, amar singh will assure all goodies for friend anil ambani

May be windfall for elder brother??!!!

 

[deb99891]

If we want to take advantage of present political turmoil,without the CHARTS,then i will go with SBI (which i am already in since few days).
Becoz ,Bank is bound to be disinvested,if UPA survives,becoz the Farm Loan Waiver is not provisioned in Budget ,the Finance minister would do that good by disinvestment i believe.

yeah dada
but ill go with my alltime fav.. PNB
today also participated in the auction...
regards

 

[Sunil]

If UPA falls,we only have 400 points cushion of Nifty Fut.

and dada, what do you think, nifty will go up to what level incase govt wins???

by cushion, did you mean it will not fall much below 400 points???

 

[uasish]

I cant predict Price,what i was saying is from last established buttom we ONLY have 400 points cushion.

 

[Sunil]

ok, have one expiry strategy:

Sell 3 lots 3800 PUT @ 30
Buy 1 lot 3900 PUT @ 42

Net Credit of Rs 2400...

at expiry,
if settles at 3800, then MAX profit achieved Rs 7400
if settles anywhere above 3900, profit limited to Rs 2400 (initial credit)

Break even point on downside is 3725
loss starts increasing below 3725 though...

So, if you believe that expiry will be not below 3750 SPOT, then trade the above strategy in 3:1 ratio

 

[milind]

There is marked increase in volatility in past half hour - frequency and size of swings. Better to stay out until there is clear direction.

-- Milind

 

[Sunil]

it has been deja vu since 3-4 days now...

now, dow -75
& EU opens -1%

now, will today also be a pappu day???

 

[debdeeps]

Looks like we will have a down market tomorrow even if Govn survives with Dow 80 points down since from the morning.

 

[Sunil]

I have seen that in bull markets, good news generally comes near supports,
whereas in bear markets, bad news generally come near resistances.

Today, SPOT closed at 4160. If tomorrow, it seem to close at around 4250 level, then I will buy a deep OTM PUT (maybe 3900 PUT) at close. (assuming 4315 is going to be a good gap resistance, and govt will not win trust vote).

I was watching the poitical circus today evening - it seems no party opposes to Nuclear deal - all, incl Congress, would desire to have some changes in its terms & conditions. Trust vote is just because Left has withdrawn support, and opposition demands majority proof from ruling govt.

That's why, I feel that even if the govt wins, not much difference / gain will arise; elections to waise bhi hona hi hain, ab nahi to 2009 main... but yes, if it looses, then all reforms, etc will be put on hold... what else do bears want ??

When UPA had come to power in May 2004, there was a down circuit in the market - reason, change in govt = change in policies too. And if UPA looses tomorrow, then there will be elections soon, and given the prevailing common man's mood, UPA will find it very tough to win again...



But, as I said in my previous post, tomorrow's last hour trading will be important for cues...

after seeig a double top at 4260 SPOt / 4270 FUT, i have purchased small qty 3900 PUT...
ignoring everything else, I jus have belief in 4315 SPOT resistance...
i will hold that PUT till expiry/till around 4000 SPOT

not have been trading much since then...