Nifty Futures Trading
- Thread starter uasish
- Start date
- Tags nifty futures nifty intraday trading
- Status
assuming that they were more shorts in the system...
how do u rollover shorts???
1. you sqaure off July Futs short by placing Buy order... (that's why we have been seeing more TBQ all these last few days.) and this leads to a bull rally.
2. and you initiate shorts in AUG FUT (more TSQ). the confusion was there initially when even AUG was in big premium (nearly 20 pts at one stage)
now, just compare today's intraday charts of July & AUG futs...
shorts were coming at every higher level of AUG FUT, and in the end, it went into a discount too.
This is the mirage that I was referring too. I had pointed this out correctly last 2 expiries. This time, i feel, that mirage may be wrong... reason AUG discount came only at fag end. Chances are there of this bull rally being a mirage (bull trap), but this time chances are less. Tomorrow's trade will answer.
Today, SPOT did not even test peak of 4355, but had held 4300. So, let's see what we have tomorrow:
a test of 4400 will cancel the mirage, but a test of sub-4250 (worse, sub 4215) will confirm the mirage.
how do u rollover shorts???
1. you sqaure off July Futs short by placing Buy order... (that's why we have been seeing more TBQ all these last few days.) and this leads to a bull rally.
2. and you initiate shorts in AUG FUT (more TSQ). the confusion was there initially when even AUG was in big premium (nearly 20 pts at one stage)
now, just compare today's intraday charts of July & AUG futs...
shorts were coming at every higher level of AUG FUT, and in the end, it went into a discount too.
This is the mirage that I was referring too. I had pointed this out correctly last 2 expiries. This time, i feel, that mirage may be wrong... reason AUG discount came only at fag end. Chances are there of this bull rally being a mirage (bull trap), but this time chances are less. Tomorrow's trade will answer.
Today, SPOT did not even test peak of 4355, but had held 4300. So, let's see what we have tomorrow:
a test of 4400 will cancel the mirage, but a test of sub-4250 (worse, sub 4215) will confirm the mirage.
One thing i wanted to clarify with some members about the Pivot points which I give in early morning before market begins.
Firstly, the method of calculation is standard:
Pivot point = (High + Low + Close)/3
The rest of the levels you may be knowing to calculate (R1, R2, S1, S2 etc)
One website mentioned to me is:
traderknowledge . com/free-online-pivot-point-calculator.php
where even "open" value is asked.
Ignore this, open is never to be taken. In this same website, enter "open value" as 0 (zero)... the result will still be the same.
Now, THE MAIN THING:
usually, in case of gap opens, the values of "Open" & "LOW" recorded may not actually appear even in tick charts (in case of gap up) and vice versa with "HIGH" in case of gap down.
Let's take gap-downs for EXample:
After registering such invisible "high" after big gap downs, sometimes market just goes down more & ends near low. NOW, if there's a big DIFFERENCE between this "high" value (as recorded by NSE & our trading software) and the actual high which is visible on tick charts, then for pivot calculation, I don't take this recorded high, but the chartical high into consideration.
Because of this reason, my pivot level may be different (more if the above-mentioned DIFFERENCE is big).
Let's take yesterday's values now. It was a good gap up day. Check out the recorded Open & Low values for spot. it was 4191.2 for both. But, did you see 4191.20 on tick charts yesterday, even at dot 9:55...??? NO
This is the result of freak trades in one of the components of the NIFTY 50 stocks.
I ignore this 4191.20 for calculation, and took the lowest level of tick chart (ie 4238) for calculation of pivot. This is also confirmed by FUT LOD which was 4237.35
The end result is:
with the invisible 4191.2 as LOD, pivot comes 4277
but with chartically visible 4238 as LOD, pivot comes to around 4290.
(accordingly, Rs & Ss levels will be different)
Now, check out which was the base level for bulls today in SPOT chart. Yes, it was this 4290.
Such freak values dont happen everyday. Like today, both the values (high & Low) were as actual & visible on charts.
In short, my method of calculation is not different - I just want to visually confirm the HOD & LOD on charts before taking them into calculation.
I hope I answered the queries of some of co-members/friends...
Firstly, the method of calculation is standard:
Pivot point = (High + Low + Close)/3
The rest of the levels you may be knowing to calculate (R1, R2, S1, S2 etc)
One website mentioned to me is:
traderknowledge . com/free-online-pivot-point-calculator.php
where even "open" value is asked.
Ignore this, open is never to be taken. In this same website, enter "open value" as 0 (zero)... the result will still be the same.
Now, THE MAIN THING:
usually, in case of gap opens, the values of "Open" & "LOW" recorded may not actually appear even in tick charts (in case of gap up) and vice versa with "HIGH" in case of gap down.
Let's take gap-downs for EXample:
After registering such invisible "high" after big gap downs, sometimes market just goes down more & ends near low. NOW, if there's a big DIFFERENCE between this "high" value (as recorded by NSE & our trading software) and the actual high which is visible on tick charts, then for pivot calculation, I don't take this recorded high, but the chartical high into consideration.
Because of this reason, my pivot level may be different (more if the above-mentioned DIFFERENCE is big).
Let's take yesterday's values now. It was a good gap up day. Check out the recorded Open & Low values for spot. it was 4191.2 for both. But, did you see 4191.20 on tick charts yesterday, even at dot 9:55...??? NO
This is the result of freak trades in one of the components of the NIFTY 50 stocks.
I ignore this 4191.20 for calculation, and took the lowest level of tick chart (ie 4238) for calculation of pivot. This is also confirmed by FUT LOD which was 4237.35
The end result is:
with the invisible 4191.2 as LOD, pivot comes 4277
but with chartically visible 4238 as LOD, pivot comes to around 4290.
(accordingly, Rs & Ss levels will be different)
Now, check out which was the base level for bulls today in SPOT chart. Yes, it was this 4290.
Such freak values dont happen everyday. Like today, both the values (high & Low) were as actual & visible on charts.
In short, my method of calculation is not different - I just want to visually confirm the HOD & LOD on charts before taking them into calculation.
I hope I answered the queries of some of co-members/friends...
- Status
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