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Sunil,
After trying with own money in ALL popular indicator/osc /theories for last 9 yrs,available in Public domain,i find many of them Work 50% of the time.
As you ;Look at RSI,let me cite one scenario,say it is in Downtrend since 2 weeks,now with 1or 2 close above the previous ones you will find RSI shooting up,(becoz the basic mathematical construction is designed so by Mr Wilders).We may gleefully jump in to realize within a week's time we are poorer by another 3% to 8%.
So when the major trend is down that jump of RSI was actually signalling a 'Sell on Rise' but as Mr Wilders had given us a band of ob/os we fail to do so.
If the major trend was UP this would indeed be a good oppurtunity to Long.
Hence the indicator works in 50 % time means when actual Trend is CONDUCIVE it works.
Now many will contradict me by citing the "Kolkata Meet" video,where infact i have mentioned RSI's use.
There i have categorically said when ever a (14 ) period RSI makes a THIRD attempt & crosses 35 then that signal can be considered,becoz i have found even in runaway bull mkt when the RSI touches 3rd time 70 that is most often a valid Sell signal.
Why this 3rd becoz in downtrend for a change of trend to occur the volatility has to come down & the Range also decreases.Moreover from my days of Cycle study i have found Nifty has a max of cycle of 28 to 35 days,and learnt from Enginneers of Telecom field that a half cycle of a Sine wave of Sound is used for lesser degree of DISTORTION.
Later going thru various scientific papers found the importance of half cycle,hence a
14 period is used.(For EoD Data)
Now the 3rd attempt vis-a-vis Close;near bottomming out period , the Range is less & the steep gradient of fall is markedly reduced the difference in close from earlier days will reduce ,(here as the mathematical construction is such the RSI will refuse to come lower becoz we are comparing the latest CLOSE with the entire periods Avg. High to Avg. Low,hence 1 to 2 close above previous suddenly increases the Avg.of High days where as the difference between latest closes will diminish),this is what commonly Traders cite DIVERGENCE,(90% without understanding),here the divergence will come in 2nd attempt mostly,the final 'Testing' (a VSA term) will mostly happen & a 3rd attempt will be made.
There also the success rate is not fair enough.Hope now it will be clear about my subjective Logic.In a Trader's Meet ,where peoples are mostly comparatively new & more inclined to get an indicator's use ,this was my attempt there (Masking the Logic).
So in conclusion to understand a theory like 'C' wave either you know the subject throughly,for which 1 has to read Glen Neely & Robert Pritcher,you have 1 of the Indian best on EW who stays in Mumbai only.
Now to cut the Long story short,let us 1st identify Trend,for which the KISS (keep it simple stupid) is Saint's method,then build around that.
Asish
After trying with own money in ALL popular indicator/osc /theories for last 9 yrs,available in Public domain,i find many of them Work 50% of the time.
As you ;Look at RSI,let me cite one scenario,say it is in Downtrend since 2 weeks,now with 1or 2 close above the previous ones you will find RSI shooting up,(becoz the basic mathematical construction is designed so by Mr Wilders).We may gleefully jump in to realize within a week's time we are poorer by another 3% to 8%.
So when the major trend is down that jump of RSI was actually signalling a 'Sell on Rise' but as Mr Wilders had given us a band of ob/os we fail to do so.
If the major trend was UP this would indeed be a good oppurtunity to Long.
Hence the indicator works in 50 % time means when actual Trend is CONDUCIVE it works.
Now many will contradict me by citing the "Kolkata Meet" video,where infact i have mentioned RSI's use.
There i have categorically said when ever a (14 ) period RSI makes a THIRD attempt & crosses 35 then that signal can be considered,becoz i have found even in runaway bull mkt when the RSI touches 3rd time 70 that is most often a valid Sell signal.
Why this 3rd becoz in downtrend for a change of trend to occur the volatility has to come down & the Range also decreases.Moreover from my days of Cycle study i have found Nifty has a max of cycle of 28 to 35 days,and learnt from Enginneers of Telecom field that a half cycle of a Sine wave of Sound is used for lesser degree of DISTORTION.
Later going thru various scientific papers found the importance of half cycle,hence a
14 period is used.(For EoD Data)
Now the 3rd attempt vis-a-vis Close;near bottomming out period , the Range is less & the steep gradient of fall is markedly reduced the difference in close from earlier days will reduce ,(here as the mathematical construction is such the RSI will refuse to come lower becoz we are comparing the latest CLOSE with the entire periods Avg. High to Avg. Low,hence 1 to 2 close above previous suddenly increases the Avg.of High days where as the difference between latest closes will diminish),this is what commonly Traders cite DIVERGENCE,(90% without understanding),here the divergence will come in 2nd attempt mostly,the final 'Testing' (a VSA term) will mostly happen & a 3rd attempt will be made.
There also the success rate is not fair enough.Hope now it will be clear about my subjective Logic.In a Trader's Meet ,where peoples are mostly comparatively new & more inclined to get an indicator's use ,this was my attempt there (Masking the Logic).
So in conclusion to understand a theory like 'C' wave either you know the subject throughly,for which 1 has to read Glen Neely & Robert Pritcher,you have 1 of the Indian best on EW who stays in Mumbai only.
Now to cut the Long story short,let us 1st identify Trend,for which the KISS (keep it simple stupid) is Saint's method,then build around that.
Asish
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