Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[mogembo]

Hi Mogembo,

If You Have The Necessary Funds Write A Higher CALL Preeferably 5100 Or 5200, Just Check On The Premiums First...Remember Writing CALLs Or PUTs Requires You To Have Same Amount Of Money As Nifty Future Margin.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Thanks Savantji for the suggestion. But the problem is I dont have that much spare funds. The max. I can get is around 25k which is not at all enough for writing the CALL.
Maybe, this loss will be a part of learning process and hopefully I will do better trades next time.
Thanks again for sparing your time.

Regards.

 

[hiteshsjoshi]

Thanks Savantji for the suggestion. But the problem is I dont have that much spare funds. The max. I can get is around 25k which is not at all enough for writing the CALL.
Maybe, this loss will be a part of learning process and hopefully I will do better trades next time.
Thanks again for sparing your time.

Regards.

Mogembo,
Being on the same ship as you (sitting on Put loss and less availability of funds), I understand your condition.
But here is what I plan to do today for my 4900 Put (if I feel comfortable about the range of Nifty Auntie).

Assuming Nifty moves in the range of Savantji's R3 and R5 range, I would look around to buy a 5100 or 5200 Put near R5 and sell my 4900 Put at close to R3.
Reasons for doing this:
(1) I continue my bearish attitude towards Nifty and am of the opinion that it should correct first before going further up.
(2) Buy 5100 or 5200 Put is as good as shorting the 5100 or 5200 futures contract. If you notice, hardly any decay points exists in both of them. So, if Nifty declines even on Tuesday or Wednesday, then I am not going to loose much by means of decay points.

Strictly personal view.
Would highly appreciate comments on the approach.

 

[MurAtt]

Would request you to check Options OI first.

There could be a temporary hitch
BUT
A sneeze or two cannot be termed as an illness and so my tgt for expiry is 5000+ on the reserved/safe side, 5100+ on the riskier side (but possible).

The next 2-3 trading days will clearly show where we are headed.

 

[sureshmathur]

Believing that SMART money is moving the market around, following appears to be the visuals and interpretation:

Smart Money appears to be re-arranging its portfolio

* European markets opened high and nifty dipped. Opportunity to sell higher.
Public expected the market to rise and SM offloaded a portion of its portfolio at higher price
i.e. BPCL, Ranbaxy, Cipla, ... Looks like SM does not want pharma.


* Volumes were low for up-bars and high for down-bars when the market "sneezed". Some stocks were making highs when the market was cold.
Smart Money has added certain stocks in its portfolio
i.e. Hindalco, Nationalum, Maruti, ... Looks like SM wants IT.

once SM has finished re-arranging its portfolio it should start moving again.

Please do correct me if you believe my readings are incorrect.

Disclosure: I do not hold any of the scrips mentioned in this email. Above is my attempt to read the market moves. Seniors may please correct my misinterpretations, if any.

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Suresh,

How Did You Miss The Fact Of RIL Treasury Stock Sale & RIL Was Down Almost 95+ Bucks At One Time....Inspite Of That Market Has Exhibited Excellent Resilience.

Anyways Continue With Your Observation...That Is What Is Going To Give You The Necessary Edge.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[Aqua9]

Hi Savant

RIL downfall was much expected hence did short in the morning and covered the same by after noon. At the opening volumes sold were high which confirmed that more fall was expected.

regards
arun.

 

[sureshmathur]

Hi Suresh,

How Did You Miss The Fact Of RIL Treasury Stock Sale & RIL Was Down Almost 95+ Bucks At One Time....Inspite Of That Market Has Exhibited Excellent Resilience.

Anyways Continue With Your Observation...That Is What Is Going To Give You The Necessary Edge.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Thank you for inspirational response, Savantji.

WDR to your observation I did not include Reliance because of the following reasons:

My interpretation is based solely on the assumption that, "In an intermediate-term time horizon, market will move only as the SM wants it to move". Short term rallies/corrections may result due to news. Long term rallies/corrections may result due to fundamentals, however, SM will have a say in it.

I have disconnected myself from the market news as they distract my attention away from "what the market wants to say". I would rather let the market tell me what is good and what is bad at the same time protect myself with stop loss orders.

Also, I believe that if SM has Reliance in its current portfolio then the stock will recover from this steep fall in a short period of time.

My belief is that SM will offload it in a slower pace so that it can get better average selling price.

PS. Savantji, I hope you do not mind my posting such VPA message in your Pivot thread. I post it here because I want you and other seniors to see it and correct me.

Regards
Suresh

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Arun,

Knowing That You Are A Bear At Heart Doesn't Surprise Me...
Your Reputation Precedes You.....Thanks To Mr.E

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Hi Savant

RIL downfall was much expected hence did short in the morning and covered the same by after noon. At the opening volumes sold were high which confirmed that more fall was expected.

regards
arun.

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Suresh,

There Is Lots More To Be Covered In VPA....Than What Has Already Been Accomplished So Far.....Let's Say, It Is In Early Stages Clinical Trial.

Not taking Cognizance Of Something That Has Such A Huge Weightage....Is Inexcusable....

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[sureshmathur]

Hi Suresh,

There Is Lots More To Be Covered In VPA....Than What Has Already Been Accomplished So Far.....Let's Say, It Is In Early Stages Clinical Trial.

Not taking Cognizance Of Something That Has Such A Huge Weightage....Is Inexcusable....

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Hello Savantji

Very True.

Accumulation, Mark-up, Distribution and Mark-down, together make so much sense logically. In some stocks they are so clear on the charts, it is amazing to see the engine of the market in action, in hindsight though.

Thanks to Karthik Marar, whose thread got me started studying it.

PS. Have read a lot but have not made profits yet. kahin par kuchh kami hai.

I am closely observing BhartiArtl, I hope by then (when the breakout eventually occurs), I have accumulated enough confidence to trade in it. The Bhartiartl chart from June onwards tells me that once it breaks out, it will reach tremendous highs. I hope I am right. Opinions please.

Regards
Suresh