Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[4xpipcounter]

Pardon me for getting out the rear view mirror and pointing this out, but there is so much to my S&R's that a lot of times I can only point out certain things as we go, and then hope it becomes a point of interest and a reminder on the journey.
Last week's WR1 was 5552, and the WS2 was 5365. The peak for the week was 5547 and the dip was 5370. Both points are 5 points from the reference points (No pun or play on words intended there.). Believe it or not, when my S&R's are missed, this is a common event.
Also, anytime you measure the hi-lo spread of the previous candle, it will always be the approximate distance of R2--S1 or R1--S2. Staying within the 2's is what is normal. When the 3's are hit, just look at the candle and notice the market trended highly that time period. If a 3 is hit, and it finishes on the other side of the 2, then the week was highly volatile.

Here's something to look for live with my S&R's.I'll give my actual forecast later, but Nifty appears to have given up on the upside, so instead of the projected 5687 being hit, we'll probably have to settle for the 5606. If that is the case, then the MR1 was not even touched. This means the MS1 and most likely, the MS2 gets hit.

To this point, it has been a very tight, consolidative, eastward market this month. Tight, sideways markets get broken with a BANG. Your BB fans will vouch for that. All this means is we could get to the MS1 and the MS2 quickly.
More coming up.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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There are some things that are going to be interesting to look for in upcoming price action. With Friday's movement, it is my opinion price action has lost interest in the upside Momentum is starting to bare down on the downside, and the monthly chart is about to have its way with things.

The 4-hour chart shows that price action got stopped dead in its tracks at the bottom of the cloud. What we should see to start the week is a slight bounce off the bottom of the cloud, and move towards the WR1 at 5426. There was so much effort exerted to get in the cloud, and the effort to stay in it, and then it barely peeked out of it, I think it has given up, and once there is a close through the bottom of it, whatever the peak was, that should be it for the week.
For future price action, the important thing to take note of is that TL that was drawn off both the 4-hour and daily charts. That aligns in the circa 5300 area, which also aligns with the bottom of the weekly cloud. That would represent a very strong confluence of support. We could even allow for a spike through that area in order for the WS2 at 5281 to be hit. Afterward, we should see some sideways action. What will happen, eventually, is a very sharp and convincing move through that point, and then the TL will act as R.
It's safe to say that this week, the WS2 will be containment as 5281.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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I thought momentum was carry going to carry this pair through the bottom of the 4-hour cloud. I was wrong, and this market is back on track for my original target, which used to be the weekly tenken, but is now the top of the daily cloud at 5687. Unless there is some obscene close outside of the daily cloud, we can just about put 5687 in the bank. The lower TF's now support this view as the market has broken well above the 4-hour and hourly cloud. Look for 5641 to be R along the way. Also, all my weekly R's have been cleared out of the way, so there will be no obstacles as far as they are concerned.
Also, the nice thing is that since we got the break inside the daily cloud and above the respective hourly and 4-hour clouds, there is little doubt that the target of 5687 will be hit. (I've mentioned 5687 so much, those 4 buttons on my computer are wore out--lol.)
As far as longer term is concerned, 5687 could be containment, but nothing is confirmed. One thing is sure, and that is it will be initial strong R, as a spike on the other side of my WR1 at 5667 (post # 3372) is also going to be necessary to get there. The nature of the move south from 5687 will determine what happens longer term.

 

[4xpipcounter]

As I'm writing, the market is camped around the 5641 level. This is the level we could get a possible correction at.
BTW, in my previous post, I made a typo. 5667 is the MR1, not the WR1. So we have current level, 5667, and 5687 all to look out for.

 

[VJAY]

As I'm writing, the market is camped around the 5641 level. This is the level we could get a possible correction at.
BTW, in my previous post, I made a typo. 5667 is the MR1, not the WR1. So we have current level, 5667, and 5687 all to look out for.

:clapping::clap::thumb:
All are hit....Hats off to you paul for your accurate prediction with charts....

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks VJAY, the peak was 5687. Maybe I can stop wearing about out with that number. It is now decision time for the market. Needless to say, we hit the top of the daily cloud, and the 4-hour chart is extremely OB. A pullback to begin the week is due. The nature of the pullback is the question. As long as price action is contained inside the daily cloud, then the next upside target will be the weekly kijun at 5756. Bottom end support is increasing, so there are more obstacles for the market to break through.

I wanted to make a couple of points. I've been asked a few times just during my stay on this site, "What timeframes do you use?" Just in the above analysis I had to use 3 different TF's, and I said nothing of the still very bearish implications on the monthly. The answer is you can never get an accurate assessment of the markets using only one TF.

I'm not trying to negatively reflect on anyone here, but just trying to make a point, because I could get beat up either way. S&R's are just that. They, at least, temporarily contain price action. They also eventually get broken. I alluded in another post about the TL support, and the chart R. The bears were saying we are going to break the TL and the chart R is solid. The bulls were saying we are going to break the chart R and the TL is going to hold. In this case, the chart R had to give way.

LOL--here's the deviant part of me. I'm talking to the bulls, then I ask them, "But, what about the chart R?" Now, I'm talking to the bears, then I ask them, "But, what about the TL support.

Personally, where I vacillated on the journey was when I thought momentum had taken over in spite of the weekly. Instead, my original projection was right in spite of the monthly.

:clapping::clap::thumb:
All are hit....Hats off to you paul for your accurate prediction with charts....

 

[Piuvbn]

Thanks VJAY, the peak was 5687. Maybe I can stop wearing about out with that number. It is now decision time for the market. Needless to say, we hit the top of the daily cloud, and the 4-hour chart is extremely OB. A pullback to begin the week is due. The nature of the pullback is the question. As long as price action is contained inside the daily cloud, then the next upside target will be the weekly kijun at 5756. Bottom end support is increasing, so there are more obstacles for the market to break through.

I wanted to make a couple of points. I've been asked a few times just during my stay on this site, "What timeframes do you use?" Just in the above analysis I had to use 3 different TF's, and I said nothing of the still very bearish implications on the monthly. The answer is you can never get an accurate assessment of the markets using only one TF.

I'm not trying to negatively reflect on anyone here, but just trying to make a point, because I could get beat up either way. S&R's are just that. They, at least, temporarily contain price action. They also eventually get broken. I alluded in another post about the TL support, and the chart R. The bears were saying we are going to break the TL and the chart R is solid. The bulls were saying we are going to break the chart R and the TL is going to hold. In this case, the chart R had to give way.

LOL--here's the deviant part of me. I'm talking to the bulls, then I ask them, "But, what about the chart R?" Now, I'm talking to the bears, then I ask them, "But, what about the TL support.

Personally, where I vacillated on the journey was when I thought momentum had taken over in spite of the weekly. Instead, my original projection was right in spite of the monthly.

HI
Thanks a lot,prediction seems to be nothing short of wizardry. Best regards
Partha Roy

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thanks, Partha Roy. I'm just glad it's doing some good. Wizards? Naw. I might become disconnected from them. We'll always make money in these markets if we have our methodology by our side. lol

HI
Thanks a lot,prediction seems to be nothing short of wizardry. Best regards
Partha Roy

 

[4xpipcounter]

As we know, our journey has been complete to 5687. Now, we need to know what we can expect as we look further in the future.
What is inevitable is a correction to start the week. The top of the daily cloud and the OB condition on the 4-hour is what predominates. The daily tenken is 5521. That makes for a cluster event with the TK combo on the 4-hour. That is preferable containment. If we break under it, then things can get choppy. We would then look to the bottom of the daily cloud at 5441. If that is broken, then forget choppy. There's another term that would describe it-- "ugly".
Let's assume 5521 holds up, and at least 5441 contains, then we look to the top of the daily cloud to get broken. If that is the case, then the weekly tenken at 5756 is on the radar, with a possible move to 5900.
Upside containment at 5756 is preferable for the LT objective to be played out, which is the 4800's and below. It is possible to have another trifecta at 5756.

 

[4xpipcounter]

There is something to be aware of when it comes to S&R's and the personality involved with the type. It is also important to be aware of the time within the timeframe.
As an example. the previous day closed at 5546, which was 141 point away from the top of the cloud That's a long ways away. Based on that, and in knowing 141 is far above the average range for Nifty, I knew if the cloud was going to be hit, it was also going to finish the day close to that market. The run up was going to be good and wore out by the time it got there.
Let's say it started the day at 5670. There are several things that could have happened at that point. It could have hit the top, reversed, and we would have had a bear candle for the day. It could have hit and kept going. If it does that, this is the thing to remember. It is the close that matters. Let's say it kept going to 5750. Wow! Excellent point to go short, because the candle is going to finish under or at 5687. When you get the initial hit on the top or bottom of the cloud or the tenken or kijun, it is fresh. It has plenty of resiliency to contain price. A lot of people make the mistake in thinking that if that candle goes through that S or R to jump in going that direction. If it keeps going it is saying it is reversing before the that candle is complete. This is something that can be backtested.

When I talk about my S&R's, we are looking at using the hourly chart when referencing the weeklies, and the 4-hour on the monthlies. Whatever the WR1 is (As example.) the hourly candle will hit and finish under it. If it finishes over it on the initial hit, there is probably a pattern of continuation ensuing.

Trendlines are different. They will be contained by the initial hit. Once taken out, there will be a huge candle in retrospect. After the TL has been broken, about 85% of the time there is a correction back to the circa area that it was broken, and then that trend will continue.

In summary, this is why we know the week will begin with a correction. We had an initial hit on the top of the daily cloud

I know this is not a thread for indicators, but it is one for pivots points, and in using pivot points, we want to know where reversal are going to be and key S&R areas are. It's also Nifty we are considering. So, all that being said the top of the daily cloud is your "Nifty Intraday Pivot Point".