Nifty Open Interest Analysis

[jamit_05]

Read this: The ever so optimistic Udyan Mukherjee is bearish !! God help the markets if he is right !!

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/udayans-comments/nifty-seems-to-have-given-upits-4-day-move-udayan_846658.html

He is expecting Index to fall below 200 Ema !!

 

[boarders]

sudden liquidation of 2 % in 5600pe after that upmove 5600 ce oi at about same level

 

[sridhar]

Great going man... you do not need any luck you are above it

In the last 2 months I have traded, lost 50% of allocated capital, with a few high stress situations( & a lot of "I told u so" from u know who!) before coming to understand some of the basics.

1. Most days max strong move in Nifty is 30-40 points. This will give you 10-20% move in the corresponding option depending on Delta.
2. Mondays generally are dull days.
3. Expiry week is dicey.
4. Weekends are generally contributors for news flow that swings the markets in opposite direction.
6. 10am to 1130 am is a siesta period as everybody seems to be attacking commodities.
7. Price action with volumes is a must.
8. Average 10% per day will give you 200% over a month. So I have decided to lock in profit rather than chase higher & higher levels. But the main thing is to control one's greed & have a realistic opinion of how much the market will move on that particular day. This is where I had lost out a lot of in-profit positions & as per me is the most important thing I need to control. The analysis of possible range of the market, for the day, is the most important aspect & the discussion on Options data is helping out a lot.
9. The data & systems are stacked against small traders. Eg. You do not get a complete picture(only best 5 quotes on each side are broadcast to all). If you put too close a trailing stop loss order in the system the big operations pounce on your open order & you loose out on the future movements. Not only that - the data candle in you charting software will never show the price reaching your level. Has happened so many times that I now only keep Stop Loss levels in my mind and sit with a ready finger to square off if required.

Will post more points over the next few days.

 

[jamit_05]

sudden liquidation of 2 % in 5600pe after that upmove 5600 ce oi at about same level

5600 level is intact... no worries there... am looking for longs with sure SL.

 

[jamit_05]

In the last 2 months I have traded, lost 50% of allocated capital, with a few high stress situations( & a lot of "I told u so" from u know who!) before coming to understand some of the basics.

1. Most days max strong move in Nifty is 30-40 points. This will give you 10-20% move in the corresponding option depending on Delta.
2. Mondays generally are dull days.
3. Expiry week is dicey.
4. Weekends are generally contributors for news flow that swings the markets in opposite direction.
6. 10am to 1130 am is a siesta period as everybody seems to be attacking commodities.
7. Price action with volumes is a must.
8. Average 10% per day will give you 200% over a month. So I have decided to lock in profit rather than chase higher & higher levels. But the main thing is to control one's greed & have a realistic opinion of how much the market will move on that particular day. This is where I had lost out a lot of in-profit positions & as per me is the most important thing I need to control. The analysis of possible range of the market, for the day, is the most important aspect & the discussion on Options data is helping out a lot.
9. The data & systems are stacked against small traders. Eg. You do not get a complete picture(only best 5 quotes on each side are broadcast to all). If you put too close a trailing stop loss order in the system the big operations pounce on your open order & you loose out on the future movements. Not only that - the data candle in you charting software will never show the price reaching your level. Has happened so many times that I now only keep Stop Loss levels in my mind and sit with a ready finger to square off if required.

Will post more points over the next few days.

Drawing out such a list is a traders' trap.

There are infinite such cases. And most of them fall 50-50; None is decisively an edge that puts odds in our favour.

There should be only one list: List of entry Rules. That too very small.

 

[jamit_05]

5600 PE is giving-up... but there is still hope. Below 5600 is a free-fall;

Break of 5600 would indicated break of Index's 200 Day Ema break. With the option table showing no support, the situation would get really ominous.

Still one can expect a turnaround cuz

1) market is already 1.5% down and won't go down much further.. at least normally it doesn't. Often, market reverses after 1.30 p.m.

2) Its Thursday, my fav day; Day of Reversals

 

[jamit_05]

CE side OI is up almost 40L !! This is over-confidence... must be punished !!!!!

 

[sridhar]

Drawing out such a list is a traders' trap.

There are infinite such cases. And most of them fall 50-50; None is decisively an edge that puts odds in our favour.

There should be only one list: List of entry Rules. That too very small.

Actually the list is general observations. My entry rules are very simple:-
1. The 5, 13 & 26 EMA positions on 15 min Nifty Futures & signals from a trading system I have modified.
2. Important intraday levels to be breached with volume.

 

[boarders]

latest odin data

 

[jamit_05]

Red and White Bravery Award should be given to writers of 5600 PE as they have held the level inspite of being threatened by Nukes (N.Korea).... !! and the level going ITM

Partial Long positions initiated with 5700 [email protected] ... target yesterday's Close !!! Balance long above 5616