NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ
- Thread starter healthraj
- Start date
- Tags nifty options chain raj oat
Buy options, the assumption is that Nifty will break out of 5300-5500 range.
1st leg I took 5300 pe @75
2nd leg I took 5500ce @ 90 today
I got lucky that my put positions already reached my first exit and now I'm carrying free put options to Sept 18 event. But I guess it's a high risk trade for others to initiate now. Any thoughts to still make this workable for others?honestly I didn't expect put to double in a day, some luck
1st leg I took 5300 pe @75
2nd leg I took 5500ce @ 90 today
I got lucky that my put positions already reached my first exit and now I'm carrying free put options to Sept 18 event. But I guess it's a high risk trade for others to initiate now. Any thoughts to still make this workable for others?honestly I didn't expect put to double in a day, some luck
Today the Market erased all the gains made in this series.
The INDIAVIX jumped 20% today.
What next ?
NIFTY moved 220 points from 5560 on a Single day. There was no time for people to think. So playing the 250 points positional trade in the Range of 5525-5560 has helped.
There is still no sign of any UPside Pullback. So some more downside is left. I will surely look for 5300 and 5250. From 5250, it makes a good Trade plan to goto 5750. So we have to play 250 points at a time. As long as the VOLT is high it would be high all our targets would be met.
INDIAVIX previous high was 36. Today it closed at 32.5 from Yesterday's close of 28.5 (a jump of around 20%, which has definitely helped the Options Traders). Until the INDIAVIX comes down, going Long will be tricky because it would not help the Long positions. So the first sign of LONG, should come from INDIAVIX. I think it would surely touch 36 once again, meaning some more downside is left in this market as above, may be 5250 or even less. so when we execute the Startegy at 5300, we have to be careful in choosing strikes where the IV is not very high.
The INDIAVIX jumped 20% today.
What next ?
NIFTY moved 220 points from 5560 on a Single day. There was no time for people to think. So playing the 250 points positional trade in the Range of 5525-5560 has helped.
There is still no sign of any UPside Pullback. So some more downside is left. I will surely look for 5300 and 5250. From 5250, it makes a good Trade plan to goto 5750. So we have to play 250 points at a time. As long as the VOLT is high it would be high all our targets would be met.
INDIAVIX previous high was 36. Today it closed at 32.5 from Yesterday's close of 28.5 (a jump of around 20%, which has definitely helped the Options Traders). Until the INDIAVIX comes down, going Long will be tricky because it would not help the Long positions. So the first sign of LONG, should come from INDIAVIX. I think it would surely touch 36 once again, meaning some more downside is left in this market as above, may be 5250 or even less. so when we execute the Startegy at 5300, we have to be careful in choosing strikes where the IV is not very high.
With the Increase in VOLT, the Price is now at 54, So you are lucky. If the VOLT continues to be High and if the market goes up, you will break even at 5475 .
But let us say the VOLT Drops to 20%, then you will breakeven above 5525.
So all now depends on the Implied Volatility. The worst thing is yet to come.
I would suggest that when the market is around 5250-5300, you convert the positions into a Strategy because there is no sign of any pull back. So hedge your long positions with some equal number of Puts (Say 5000 PE).
When the market has moved nearly 450 points from 5110, you should expect to correct at least 120 points
This market could go Down even further because the OI in 5000 and 5200 are more than the MAX OI in CE.
OI at 5000 PE 42L
OI at 5200 PE 45L
The MAX OI at CE is at 5500, which is 38L.
Note : Just call me Raj
But let us say the VOLT Drops to 20%, then you will breakeven above 5525.
So all now depends on the Implied Volatility. The worst thing is yet to come.
I would suggest that when the market is around 5250-5300, you convert the positions into a Strategy because there is no sign of any pull back. So hedge your long positions with some equal number of Puts (Say 5000 PE).
When the market has moved nearly 450 points from 5110, you should expect to correct at least 120 points
This market could go Down even further because the OI in 5000 and 5200 are more than the MAX OI in CE.
OI at 5000 PE 42L
OI at 5200 PE 45L
The MAX OI at CE is at 5500, which is 38L.
Note : Just call me Raj
Last edited:
Maybe I am wrong but I think it makes sense, what I am about to tell here is a flaw in max pain theory
Most option writers have deep pockets, they are fii and other big entities right? Now if they wrote options it means that they are not expecting a particular level to be broken up or down side right? Now there is no way that even fii will be right on the market all the time , it cannot be, and also it has been seen that in case the markets moves beyond the highest oi boundaries the writers almost immediately changes their stance and write new level put and calls, so each and everything can happen in between start of a series and until it ends, however there is a little chance that all messy things happen in last expiry week and that's is the time when max pain theory truly works mostly. Because I believe that deep pockets guys when write option, they try to write it once and for all, they want it to let expire only and worthless for buyers , it's the markets that forces them to change their position to new levels, or they will suffer losses.
Just my point of view, please take it as informative post and not a criticism post, it will either help you guys or me to understand markets better :thumbup:
Most option writers have deep pockets, they are fii and other big entities right? Now if they wrote options it means that they are not expecting a particular level to be broken up or down side right? Now there is no way that even fii will be right on the market all the time , it cannot be, and also it has been seen that in case the markets moves beyond the highest oi boundaries the writers almost immediately changes their stance and write new level put and calls, so each and everything can happen in between start of a series and until it ends, however there is a little chance that all messy things happen in last expiry week and that's is the time when max pain theory truly works mostly. Because I believe that deep pockets guys when write option, they try to write it once and for all, they want it to let expire only and worthless for buyers , it's the markets that forces them to change their position to new levels, or they will suffer losses.
Just my point of view, please take it as informative post and not a criticism post, it will either help you guys or me to understand markets better :thumbup:
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