Yes you are right. But in the first week since the positions in OI are still building up, my opinion is that you could also trade with the CHG in OI. Plus since Yesterday there was a big move the next day normally either profit booking will happen or Fresh positions need to be taken up, the opportunity which we can utilize to create our short positions
NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ
- Thread starter healthraj
- Start date
- Tags nifty options chain raj oat
1st Day of Aug-13 Series.
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6200 - Indicating a Flat to Bullish trend today.
MAX OI at 5900-6000. So for this month Trend is still not decided. We have to wait and see the OI to have a sense of the Weekly/Monthly view.
The Pivot is at 5945.
The 5500-6000 Pair is trading at 103.7.
In this is month we have 5 weeks for expiry.
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6200 - Indicating a Flat to Bullish trend today.
MAX OI at 5900-6000. So for this month Trend is still not decided. We have to wait and see the OI to have a sense of the Weekly/Monthly view.
The Pivot is at 5945.
The 5500-6000 Pair is trading at 103.7.
In this is month we have 5 weeks for expiry.
In the morning when the MAX CHG in OI was 5900-6000.
CHG in OI at 5900 PE was > CHG in OI 6000 CE - indicating a BULL and market made the high of 5974.3
Now the CHG in OI at 5900 PE is 3.68L and 6000CE is 4.95L. Since 4.95L > 3.68L it turned from Bullish to Bearish.
The "Overall" CHG in OI CE @ 10.38L PE @ 6.09L also indicates a SELL.
The "Overall" OI - in the morning itslef I told that it was bearish
Note: When I say "Overall" I don't take all the strikes, I took only the sum of 5800, 5900, 6000, 6100, 6200, since the market is trading around the Strike of 6000.
Having said all the Since it is the first day of the Expiry the Market makers are busy making their positions and so normally it will be FLAT. In the afternoon we might get the real picture. In the morning it would be going UP and DOWN. so it would be better to trade with less quantities or be on the sidelines or trade the Pair
CHG in OI at 5900 PE was > CHG in OI 6000 CE - indicating a BULL and market made the high of 5974.3
Now the CHG in OI at 5900 PE is 3.68L and 6000CE is 4.95L. Since 4.95L > 3.68L it turned from Bullish to Bearish.
The "Overall" CHG in OI CE @ 10.38L PE @ 6.09L also indicates a SELL.
The "Overall" OI - in the morning itslef I told that it was bearish
Note: When I say "Overall" I don't take all the strikes, I took only the sum of 5800, 5900, 6000, 6100, 6200, since the market is trading around the Strike of 6000.
Having said all the Since it is the first day of the Expiry the Market makers are busy making their positions and so normally it will be FLAT. In the afternoon we might get the real picture. In the morning it would be going UP and DOWN. so it would be better to trade with less quantities or be on the sidelines or trade the Pair
For a Particular Strike if the Volume is Greater than the CHG in OI then it can be considered as a Strong trend.
For example if you take the 6000 PE strike.
6000 PE - Negative value of -45200
6000 PE volume is - 40K
So you can surely Trade Long on 6000 PE. This is not the Right example because the 6000 PE CHG in OI is negative. But if you have a scenario where the CHG in OI < Volume then it is strong signal of Bearish. Same hold true for CE also.
So simple rule is the value in Volume - I consider it as Long
The Value in CHg in OI - I consider it as Short.
So whichever is greater , you trade in that direction.
So if CHG in OI > Volume - Better to Sell the strike
If CHG in OI < Volume - Better to Buy the strike.
This is purely based on my observation based on initial thought from Option.Trader.
So observe the Volume and CHG in OI - You will get an idea.
One more observation is that if the Volumes are not that great, that also indicates FLAT market
For example if you take the 6000 PE strike.
6000 PE - Negative value of -45200
6000 PE volume is - 40K
So you can surely Trade Long on 6000 PE. This is not the Right example because the 6000 PE CHG in OI is negative. But if you have a scenario where the CHG in OI < Volume then it is strong signal of Bearish. Same hold true for CE also.
So simple rule is the value in Volume - I consider it as Long
The Value in CHg in OI - I consider it as Short.
So whichever is greater , you trade in that direction.
So if CHG in OI > Volume - Better to Sell the strike
If CHG in OI < Volume - Better to Buy the strike.
This is purely based on my observation based on initial thought from Option.Trader.
So observe the Volume and CHG in OI - You will get an idea.
One more observation is that if the Volumes are not that great, that also indicates FLAT market
Since it is a FLAT market take quick profits and play for not more than 45-50 points. Expecting 60 points might be risky
Close at least 50% now. Risky players can hold on till the Europe opening and close accordingly
One important thing is that MAX OI Still 5900-6000. So unless the positions are made in 5800 or 6100, this market can be killing for the Trending Traders. The Pair trade also not giving any big result because the Volatility is low.
Close at least 50% now. Risky players can hold on till the Europe opening and close accordingly
One important thing is that MAX OI Still 5900-6000. So unless the positions are made in 5800 or 6100, this market can be killing for the Trending Traders. The Pair trade also not giving any big result because the Volatility is low.
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Today I Sold NIFTY Futures at 5969 and closed 50% at 5950. Holding the rest with Cost. - 19 points profit made.
Bought 6000 PE at 135 and Closed 50% at 148.7 - Holding the rest 50% at cost- 13 points profit made.
I am still holding the 5500-6000 Pair, Sold @ 108- Will hold it until Monday
Holding naked INFY 2800 PE, bought @ 31 - This I will try and hold till Expiry or Until I got the profit. Small calculated risk.
Bought 6000 PE at 135 and Closed 50% at 148.7 - Holding the rest 50% at cost- 13 points profit made.
I am still holding the 5500-6000 Pair, Sold @ 108- Will hold it until Monday
Holding naked INFY 2800 PE, bought @ 31 - This I will try and hold till Expiry or Until I got the profit. Small calculated risk.
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