NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[TraderRavi]

Max pain @ 5950.

 

[TraderRavi]

Anyone thinking Expiry at 6000?

expiry @ 5920

 

[TraderRavi]

expiry @ 5920

it means if it dips below 5900 on expiry day, 5900 ce sud give some money, lets see.....but game sud be between 5900 PE/CE, one will be zero.......

 

[healthraj]

Trading one day before Expiry.

Today it should be a NO Trading day because the Premium consolidation will normally continue. MAX Pain still at 5900.

So if you get NIFTY around 5950 - Sell and if you get NIFTY around 5850 - Buy. Otherwise avoid trading

The OAT tool suggests the PIVOT at 5941 - So try selling around 5940. That does not mean Buy for 5940

One more observation is the INDIAVIX has not moved anywhere but the IV for CE and PE has gone up like anything, which only suggests that the Options Selling is going on. Wait for the Options IV to come down to Buy Options. Otherwise stay in the Options Credit spreads. The 5700-6000 pair taken at 36 is now 12. So 66% of premium gone in just two days.

To give an idea on the IV, On Monday EOD the AVG CE IV @ 38.2 PE IV @ 21.9
today morning AVG CE IV @ 49.1 PE IV @ 32.1

This also suggests that Calls are being SHORT more. so the market can Expire below 5900

 

[shivan]

Closing should leave many surprised... looks like the push after it held 200DMA might prove decisive. FII's are still gungho and a lot of rollovers looks to be on the long side

Could you please tell why do you think FII's are rolling over on long side.

 

[healthraj]

Trading one day before Expiry.

Today it should be a NO Trading day because the Premium consolidation will normally continue. MAX Pain still at 5900.

So if you get NIFTY around 5950 - Sell and if you get NIFTY around 5850 - Buy. Otherwise avoid trading

The OAT tool suggests the PIVOT at 5941 - So try selling around 5940. That does not mean Buy for 5940

One more observation is the INDIAVIX has not moved anywhere but the IV for CE and PE has gone up like anything, which only suggests that the Options Selling is going on. Wait for the Options IV to come down to Buy Options. Otherwise stay in the Options Credit spreads. The 5700-6000 pair taken at 36 is now 12. So 66% of premium gone in just two days.

To give an idea on the IV, On Monday EOD the AVG CE IV @ 38.2 PE IV @ 21.9
today morning AVG CE IV @ 49.1 PE IV @ 32.1

This also suggests that Calls are being SHORT more. so the market can Expire below 5900

Those who believe the market can go UP can buy above 5844 SPOT or NOW. NF made low of 5830 - AS I have been telling now the 5850 is being tested. The MAX Pain has moved to 5800, which is a bit worrying for the LONG . So the Surprise was on the Short side it seems.

 

[Option.Trader]

Could you please tell why do you think FII's are rolling over on long side.

Just based on nifty levels when position got added

 

[Option.Trader]

But FII's sure look a cheerful lot and increased their long only campaign in Nifty future. They are now almost 250K contracts long on nifty future.. we saw what happened when they unwound all their shorts in last series.. will a similar reverse situation happen when they unwind all their longs? Expiry looks interesting for another debit spread play with puts.. my choice of WMD's - buy 1 lot 5900 PE and sell 2 lots 5700PE

When huge position are built, unwinding pressures may get built in. Today's close may decide if you uptrend stays in

 

[RavishReport]

When huge position are built, unwinding pressures may get built in. Today's close may decide if you uptrend stays in

Can Nifty break below 5800 today?

 

[Option.Trader]

Max pain @ 5950.

Also actual Max pain per options oracle at yesterday's close was 5800, so today's fall still worked with max pain theory