NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[appajib]

Revisiting INFY data on how to take positions tomorrow.

First of all INFY Looks little bit Tricky now because the IV has dropped.

The MAX OI Range is at 2600-3500 also looks very dangerous because it is a very broad range. 3500 is around 15% away from current Level of 3100, which would seem possible. 2600 from 3100 means INFY need to make 500 points movement, which is also possible for INFY ..

The VOLT has come down today from 66% Yesterday to 62% today. So we have to watch the INFY IV tomorrow. Last week it was 55%.

Tomorrow we will look at the INFY data at 10 AM, 12 PM and 3 PM. We will take our positions after 3 pm tomorrow, if we feel that we have a Safe trade.

May be there is one more indicator : MAX Pain . MAX Pain of INFY is at 3050

10:00 AM Update : The AVG VOLT which was 62% yesterday has increased to 65%. From an Intraday Perspective OAT indicates a BEAR. But since the MAX Pain @ 3050 was broken yesterday I would expect INFY to move UP by at least 5% from 3050, which would be 3200.

The CE VOLT is 60.23 an PE VOLT is at 70.34. So I think PEs getting Short more than the CEs. So the Bias is towards UP.

For Intraday, As per Price Movement, BUY ABOVE 3135 and SELL BELOW 3095. Prices are in SPOT
Let us do a Check at 12 again

Ravi Bhai,
Tomorrow, I think before market opens INFY results will come out..
so its better to decide strategy today itself since tomorrow we might not get any chance...pls advise..

 

[healthraj]

Revisiting INFY data on how to take positions tomorrow.

First of all INFY Looks little bit Tricky now because the IV has dropped.

The MAX OI Range is at 2600-3500 also looks very dangerous because it is a very broad range. 3500 is around 15% away from current Level of 3100, which would seem possible. 2600 from 3100 means INFY need to make 500 points movement, which is also possible for INFY ..

The VOLT has come down today from 66% Yesterday to 62% today. So we have to watch the INFY IV tomorrow. Last week it was 55%.

Tomorrow we will look at the INFY data at 10 AM, 12 PM and 3 PM. We will take our positions after 3 pm tomorrow, if we feel that we have a Safe trade.

May be there is one more indicator : MAX Pain . MAX Pain of INFY is at 3050

10:00 AM Update : The AVG VOLT which was 62% yesterday has increased to 65%. From an Intraday Perspective OAT indicates a BEAR. But since the MAX Pain @ 3050 was broken yesterday I would expect INFY to move UP by at least 5% from 3050, which would be 3200.

The CE VOLT is 60.23 an PE VOLT is at 70.34. So I think PEs getting Short more than the CEs. So the Bias is towards UP.

For Intraday, As per Price Movement, BUY ABOVE 3135 and SELL BELOW 3095. Prices are in SPOT.

12:00 PM Update : The AVG VOLT come to 62% from 65% in the morning. From an Intraday Perspective OAT indicates a BEAR.
MAX Pain has moved to 3100, which was also Tested and bounced back and Trading above 3100. Since the VOLT is Going down the Bias is UP

For Intraday, As per Price Movement, BUY ABOVE 3140 and SELL BELOW 3100. Prices are in SPOT

Any movement towards 3100, I think can be bought

 

[healthraj]

Ravi Bhai,
Tomorrow, I think before market opens INFY results will come out..
so its better to decide strategy today itself since tomorrow we might not get any chance...pls advise..

Yes We will decide on the Strategy before 3 pm today, so that we can take positions before today close

 

[healthraj]

Since the MAX OI for BANKNIFTY has changed to 11000 from 10000, BNF would be BUY on DIPs for Target of 11000

MAX Pain has shifted to 10000 once again. The Diff between 10000CE and 11000CE is 10K. So Less Risky those who bought at lows can close the Call. Others please monitor 11000CE positions and Trade Long only when MAX CE OI at 11000

 

[adg123]

Hi Raj,
Seem market would Bullish in 2nd Half...!
Is it a good strategy to buy (Suppose Nifty @6050 Spot) CE6100 + PE6000 Strangle pair @nearly Rs. 235/- for tomorrow as well as for whole series?

 

[Cubt]

Raj,

I would like to go long on Infy futures and Buy equal amount of Infy PE 2500 18 LOTS.

At the max movement, if Infy drops 20%,

I will lose 75k in Infy futures and
Infy put option if triples I will get around 40k profit.
Infy put option if doubles there is no loss/no profit

Considering a drop of 20% will surely result in Infy PE giving more than double the amount.

if Infy gains 20%,

I will gain 75k in Infy futures and
Infy put option goes to 0, loss will be 40K
Total profit will be 75-40K=35k

So either ways we would end up in Profit. Please correct me if am wrong.

 

[prabhsingh]

Raj,

I would like to go long on Infy futures and Buy equal amount of Infy PE 2500 18 LOTS.

At the max movement, if Infy drops 20%,

I will lose 75k in Infy futures and
Infy put option if triples I will get around 40k profit.
Infy put option if doubles there is no loss/no profit

Considering a drop of 20% will surely result in Infy PE giving more than double the amount.

if Infy gains 20%,

I will gain 75k in Infy futures and
Infy put option goes to 0, loss will be 40K
Total profit will be 75-40K=35k

So either ways we would end up in Profit. Please correct me if am wrong.

How about if Infy does not makes a movement of 20% and moves very less %.How are you going to mitigate the risk if % increase is very low.I think you should think from that perspective as well.

 

[anup]

Raj waiting for your infy updates

 

[healthraj]

Revisiting INFY data on how to take positions tomorrow.

First of all INFY Looks little bit Tricky now because the IV has dropped.

The MAX OI Range is at 2600-3500 also looks very dangerous because it is a very broad range. 3500 is around 15% away from current Level of 3100, which would seem possible. 2600 from 3100 means INFY need to make 500 points movement, which is also possible for INFY ..

The VOLT has come down today from 66% Yesterday to 62% today. So we have to watch the INFY IV tomorrow. Last week it was 55%.

Tomorrow we will look at the INFY data at 10 AM, 12 PM and 3 PM. We will take our positions after 3 pm tomorrow, if we feel that we have a Safe trade.

May be there is one more indicator : MAX Pain . MAX Pain of INFY is at 3050

10:00 AM Update : The AVG VOLT which was 62% yesterday has increased to 65%. From an Intraday Perspective OAT indicates a BEAR. But since the MAX Pain @ 3050 was broken yesterday I would expect INFY to move UP by at least 5% from 3050, which would be 3200.

The CE VOLT is 60.23 an PE VOLT is at 70.34. So I think PEs getting Short more than the CEs. So the Bias is towards UP.

For Intraday, As per Price Movement, BUY ABOVE 3135 and SELL BELOW 3095. Prices are in SPOT.

12:00 PM Update : The AVG VOLT come to 62% from 65% in the morning. From an Intraday Perspective OAT indicates a BEAR.
MAX Pain has moved to 3100, which was also Tested and bounced back and Trading above 3100. Since the VOLT is Going down the Bias is UP

For Intraday, As per Price Movement, BUY ABOVE 3140 and SELL BELOW 3100. Prices are in SPOT

Any movement towards 3100, I think can be bought

3:00 PM Update :

The VOLT is high. So I would suggest to Sell 2700-3500 or 2800-3500 Pair. but it is not very high like last time Going by the VOLT I think INFY also will give a FLAT result, which should bring down the VOLT.

 

[Cubt]

How about if Infy does not makes a movement of 20% and moves very less %.How are you going to mitigate the risk if % increase is very low.I think you should think from that perspective as well.

For sure, tomorrow Infy is not going to be flat tomorrow. There is going to be a movement of at least 5%.

If 5% up I gain around 20k in Futures but am not sure how much depreciation will be there for PUTS.

Confused!!