NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

Dear Raj Sir,

I have been a silent follower of this thread since July'13 & have been making consistent profits in options using your excellent OAT tools. Thanks a ton!

MY TREND ANALYSIS:
Today's roller coaster movement in Nifty has confirmed a change in trend from BULLISH to BEARISH with the top being made at 6252.45 & 6267.75 in Nifty Spot & Futures respectively. So i don't expect Nifty to make new highs until the start of the new bull trend (Possibly after December 8th state election results).

My Trend Change Analyzer is a combination of (Daily Nifty Breakout, Breakdown levels + MACD + RSI) & has so far given 100% accuracy in the last 5 months on my OTM(One trade per month) in Nifty futures with a profit of 300-450 points a month from the trend change dates.

I expect CNX IT to fall sharply from tomorrow & the bank nifty from the 29th.

Disclosures:-
1. Shorted Nifty Futures today NOV-Series at 6260(Trend Change Point). TGT : 450 Points from the sell price.
2. Shorted CNX IT Futures today OCT-Series at 8850. TGT : 350 Points from the sell price.

Just thought of sharing this with you so that you can start making money at the earliest.

Happy Trading!

Thanks Always

Thanks for posting. Good to know that you are making profit with OAT. All the best.

If you don't mind can you please share the logic of OTM and how do you find the Trend Changing Levels

 

[healthraj]

NIFTY Hourly chart at 24-OCT-13 EOD.

Please find below the NIFTY hourly chart. NIFTY has been Trading in the Wave for quite some time.

 

[BabaMagic]

Evening Raj Sir,

Here we Go:-

Trend Changing confirmation with the help of daily Pivot breakout & breakdown levels:
1. Make a note of yesterday's High & Low for Nifty Spot
2. Make a note of Nifty Spot High & Low from 9:15 to 9:45 AM
3. Enter the values on this link: http://www.pivottrading.co.in/pages/breakout.php
4. The results will give you today's Upside breakout & downside breakdown
5. Change the Risk Reward values to 0.325 for reward & 0.8 for risk(since 0.8 is only met on the trend changing days)
6. Go long/short only & only if the upper breakout/downward breakdown level is sustained for 10 mins.(reward of 0.325 will surely be achieved)

Guyzz, You will amazed by the results once you follow it consistently.

Question: When do u know the trend has changed?
Scenario 1:Upside breakout is sustained but downside breakdown target is achieved.
Scenario 2ownside breakout is sustained but Upward breakout target is achieved.
Scenario 3:Both the Levels are sustained & targets are achieved.

Today's Example:
Upper Breakout level was 6238.70
Downward breakdown level was 6167.80
The level of 6238.70 was sustained from 9:52 to 10:02 with a first target of 6259(6238.70*0.325%). But nifty only made a high of 6252.45.
Next, in the late hours it sustained the downward breakdown level of 6167.80 & went on to achieve the target of 6147.80(6167.80*-0.325%). This confirms a change in trend.

Question2: When does the trend change?
1.When MACD falls below 14 in an Uptrend &
2.When MACD falls below -14 in a downtrend
Please avoid trading on such days as your stop losses will surely be hit.

Question 3: How does RSI help in Trend change.
1. It will show 70(Over bought) in a day or two after the trend has changed.
2. It will show 30(Over sold) in a day or two after the trend has changed.
3. In case, it does not indicate 70 or 30 levels than rest assured that the trend reversal will stay only for few days.

Below are the last 4 trend reversal dates:
1. 07 OCT 2013 - Bear to BULL. Nifty made a low of 5825.85(Low of the trend)
2. 28 Aug 2013 - Bear to Bull. Nifty made a low of 5118.85(Low of the trend)
3. 23 July 2013 - Bull to Bear. Nifty made a high of 6093.35(High of the trend)
4. 24 June 2013 - Bear to Bull. Nifty made a low of 5566.25(Low of the trend)

So going by these results, I stand on today's Nifty high of 6252.45 to be the High of this bull trend.

Would love to give you any clarifications on the same.

Thanks!

 

[manojborle]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This is my view on reliance.
Please help me correcting my mistakes, so constructive criticism is always welcome.

 

[BabaMagic]

Morning Raj Sir,

Have made multiple attempts to post the findings behind the trend change theory along with the results but unable to do so.

Shall try again in the morning.

As far as the OTM logic is concerned, I exit my long/short positions when MACD breaches 35 or -35 from the trend change date. So in the current scenario, I will cover my short position in nifty futures when MACD breaches -35 next month. So by that time I expect to make a profit of atleast 350-400 points.

Thanks!

 

[prabhsingh]

On 10 min Timeframe lower channel is broken.If market trades below 6117 it can test atleast 6033.

 

[healthraj]

On 10 min Timeframe lower channel is broken.If market trades below 6117 it can test atleast 6033.

Are you talking about the Futures or SPOT?

 

[bksujal]

On 10 min Timeframe lower channel is broken.If market trades below 6117 it can test atleast 6033.

trend is up buddy look at the FII activity daily look for buying on dips rather than shorting here

 

[healthraj]

NIFTY SPOT 5 minute Pivot chart

BUY ABOVE 6175
SELL BELOW 6130

 

[healthraj]

As per FIBO Levels since the Low for Today NIFTY Futures is 6137, 38% would be 6163. So Buy Above 6165 for target of 6204.
The Intraday bias is Negative. The above is only for those who want to go Long