NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[babumehta]

A technical Question for those Who are Trading with Futures?

1. For Intraday what timeframe is best for taking an Entry?
2. For Positional what timeframe is best for Taking an Entry?

I was trying a method which combines the following stuff, based on which I have been giving the BUY / SELL signals in the past one week and which seems to be working. But I want to know the ideal timeframe for taking Entry.
1. My Pivots from the MTP tool
2. Calculate the Trend using the Excel Function TREND
3. Calculate the Variance of the PIVOTS using the Excel function STEYX.
4. Plot the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE Line Below and Above the TREND Line taking also into factor AVG VOLT of the Stock from the FOVOLT (Taken from NSEIndia)
5. Depending on the timeframe you trade, if the PIVOT is formed above the RESISTANCE then it is a SELL and if the PIVOT is formed below the SUPPORT then it is a BUY.

The Important factor is taking FOVOLT which is where most of the time we get caught as to whether there was a REAL BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN. My whole assumption for this method is to be Follow the Trend and also have a Rangebound mind... Meaning Sell when goes above the RESISTANCE and BUY when goes below SUPPORT, which also helps the BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN. The problem with the normal BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN system is normally people try to SELL when goes below the SUPPORT and find that it is a FALSE breakdown. If they had sold near the RESISTANCE, they can get out even in case of a FALSE breakdown.

If you folks are interested I can share the version. I have incorporated this in the OAT Pivot section. It will also show Visual Trend.... But before that I want to hear the answer to my question on what is the best timeframe to take entry for Intraday.

with this If we can combine the OAT then it will give additional view on the Direction.

And Yes another point to mention is that Normally in the Higher timeframes, it takes a lot of patience to hold on to the positions because it takes hours or Days for the position to materialize. In case of NIFTY, in the 60 minute chart, the first SELL signal was generated at 6212 on 19-Nov@11:00 AM. The Second Sell signal was generated on 19-NOV@14:06 PM @ 6210. The Third signal was generated today at 14:39 PM @ 6204.

Dear Raj

I looked at OAT with latest data (refresh) and it is showing 6200 as max pain not 6150. Also the last chart (Positional pivots) doenst get updated. I clicked update pivots and refresh. What is that for?

Thank you, you are very knowlegible
~Babulal

 

[prabhsingh]

Go Long in Nifty with SPOT Nifty target of atleast 6234.

Sl hit today after long time which gives me more enthu to find and conduct more analysis.

 

[prabhsingh]

For me 10 min followed by hourly followed by daily is best time frame.

 

[sach007]

Hi Raj,

I use 3 Min TimeFrame for Intraday Trading and for finetuning the entries use 1 Min Timeframe.

Similarly for Positional Hourly and 5min.

Regards
Sach

 

[BabaMagic]

Evening OT,

Your point is quite valid here & i will be more than happy to explain.

Firstly, My SL has always been 0.80% from the breakout/breakdown levels. I don't really think i have mentioned to keep a SL of 30 points anytime in the past.

Based on today's scenario,
Lower breakout = 6174.55. TGT 1 = 6154.50 SL = 6174.55 +*0.80% = 6223.95
Upper breakout = 6200.85. TGT 1 = 6221 SL = 6200.85 - *0.80% = 6151.25

As u notice, The lower breakout SL was more than the first target of the upper breakout & vice versa. This was truly an awkward scenario which i encountered for the first time using this strategy hence decided to avoid it.

Dear OT,
You got to understand this strategy has been tested only for 6 months & i am sure it has lot more to offer than what i really know off till now.

My intention here is to make sure WE don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade so pardon me if i continue to bring in new dimensions & outliers going forward.

In the end, i am happy for the fact that it did what it was suppose to by achieving the full target of 6131.30 after sustaining the lower breakout level of 6174.55 twice in the morning.

Raj Sir, Thanks for your excellent analysis on Chart reading once again. It did help.

Cheers!

 

[invester07]

I use 5 min for intraday and 60 min for positional trades.

 

[wiseowl]

5 min chart with fine tuning with 1min is best for intra day. As for posn is concerned daily is the best bet.

 

[escape]

Dear Raj,

I prefer to use:
For Intraday: 15/30 min for identifying trend, entry on 5 min S/R
For Positional: Daily for identifying trend, entry on 30/15 min S/R

Happy Trading.

Regards,
Escape

A technical Question for those Who are Trading with Futures?

1. For Intraday what timeframe is best for taking an Entry?
2. For Positional what timeframe is best for Taking an Entry?

I was trying a method which combines the following stuff, based on which I have been giving the BUY / SELL signals in the past one week and which seems to be working. But I want to know the ideal timeframe for taking Entry.
1. My Pivots from the MTP tool
2. Calculate the Trend using the Excel Function TREND
3. Calculate the Variance of the PIVOTS using the Excel function STEYX.
4. Plot the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE Line Below and Above the TREND Line taking also into factor AVG VOLT of the Stock from the FOVOLT (Taken from NSEIndia)
5. Depending on the timeframe you trade, if the PIVOT is formed above the RESISTANCE then it is a SELL and if the PIVOT is formed below the SUPPORT then it is a BUY.

The Important factor is taking FOVOLT which is where most of the time we get caught as to whether there was a REAL BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN. My whole assumption for this method is to be Follow the Trend and also have a Rangebound mind... Meaning Sell when goes above the RESISTANCE and BUY when goes below SUPPORT, which also helps the BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN. The problem with the normal BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN system is normally people try to SELL when goes below the SUPPORT and find that it is a FALSE breakdown. If they had sold near the RESISTANCE, they can get out even in case of a FALSE breakdown.

If you folks are interested I can share the version. I have incorporated this in the OAT Pivot section. It will also show Visual Trend.... But before that I want to hear the answer to my question on what is the best timeframe to take entry for Intraday.

with this If we can combine the OAT then it will give additional view on the Direction.

And Yes another point to mention is that Normally in the Higher timeframes, it takes a lot of patience to hold on to the positions because it takes hours or Days for the position to materialize. In case of NIFTY, in the 60 minute chart, the first SELL signal was generated at 6212 on 19-Nov@11:00 AM. The Second Sell signal was generated on 19-NOV@14:06 PM @ 6210. The Third signal was generated today at 14:39 PM @ 6204.

 

[anup0212]

A technical Question for those Who are Trading with Futures?

1. For Intraday what timeframe is best for taking an Entry?
2. For Positional what timeframe is best for Taking an Entry?

I was trying a method which combines the following stuff, based on which I have been giving the BUY / SELL signals in the past one week and which seems to be working. But I want to know the ideal timeframe for taking Entry.
1. My Pivots from the MTP tool
2. Calculate the Trend using the Excel Function TREND
3. Calculate the Variance of the PIVOTS using the Excel function STEYX.
4. Plot the SUPPORT and RESISTANCE Line Below and Above the TREND Line taking also into factor AVG VOLT of the Stock from the FOVOLT (Taken from NSEIndia)
5. Depending on the timeframe you trade, if the PIVOT is formed above the RESISTANCE then it is a SELL and if the PIVOT is formed below the SUPPORT then it is a BUY.

The Important factor is taking FOVOLT which is where most of the time we get caught as to whether there was a REAL BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN. My whole assumption for this method is to be Follow the Trend and also have a Rangebound mind... Meaning Sell when goes above the RESISTANCE and BUY when goes below SUPPORT, which also helps the BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN. The problem with the normal BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN system is normally people try to SELL when goes below the SUPPORT and find that it is a FALSE breakdown. If they had sold near the RESISTANCE, they can get out even in case of a FALSE breakdown.

If you folks are interested I can share the version. I have incorporated this in the OAT Pivot section. It will also show Visual Trend.... But before that I want to hear the answer to my question on what is the best timeframe to take entry for Intraday.

with this If we can combine the OAT then it will give additional view on the Direction.

And Yes another point to mention is that Normally in the Higher timeframes, it takes a lot of patience to hold on to the positions because it takes hours or Days for the position to materialize. In case of NIFTY, in the 60 minute chart, the first SELL signal was generated at 6212 on 19-Nov@11:00 AM. The Second Sell signal was generated on 19-NOV@14:06 PM @ 6210. The Third signal was generated today at 14:39 PM @ 6204.

Hey Raj,

First of all I would like to congratulate you for doing such a wonderful analysis in this thread , no doubt it is best thread in TJ...now coming to your question...do you think doing such analysis really is required for positional trades..where we go GAP UP and GAP DOWN for next day is already there.
I just try to make it simple ..rule -1 hold any positional trade in future for max 3 to 5 days ...but if by any chance your position is not giving gain then better close it "this learned from exp"...lost much here with wait for getting back in trade and holding position...I mean when there are lot of manipulation do you think any system can give any answer ..sorry I do not it right ....now rule-2 see indicators with short and medium prospective ..u r already doing that your OAT gives positional trade signal ...anywhere 95% to 85% accuracy u can predict but room for manipulation brings down to 30% so if u made 70% correct trade ....then u need nothing...else and if I followed ur correctly u are accurate almost 90% above...rule -3 ...no logic ...confused well do not be...

yesterday market was hovering around 6200 ard max pain almost 20 points up and down and today also same drama was continued ...so yesterday itself I was convince we will go down and u also mentioned same yesterday,but today full day's drama was real test of patience of traders...Now just assume we would have been proved wrong today if instead of fall it would have gone up ..which we cannot rule out so according to me (that simply means manipulation, leave room for it always) and again "EXCESS OF ANY THING LEADS TO WORST"...so simply rule-3 ..no logic ...just follow your trend....I ONCE AGAIN...WANNA SAY ALL THE BEST TO YOU ...KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK...

One more point to mention normally to form any view I try t see EOD closes of NIFTY...

 

[Option.Trader]

Nifty Spot has resustained the lower breakout of 6174.55.

so the targets now are intact.

Guyzz,

Nifty Spot is again trading above the lower breakout level for more than 10 mins.

Its definitely not the right day to use this breakout strategy.

Enter long positions only if Nifty sustains the upper breakout level of 6200.85. Otherwise avoid this strategy for today.

Confused!!!

Evening OT,

Your point is quite valid here & i will be more than happy to explain.

Firstly, My SL has always been 0.80% from the breakout/breakdown levels. I don't really think i have mentioned to keep a SL of 30 points anytime in the past.

Based on today's scenario,
Lower breakout = 6174.55. TGT 1 = 6154.50 SL = 6174.55 +*0.80% = 6223.95
Upper breakout = 6200.85. TGT 1 = 6221 SL = 6200.85 - *0.80% = 6151.25

As u notice, The lower breakout SL was more than the first target of the upper breakout & vice versa. This was truly an awkward scenario which i encountered for the first time using this strategy hence decided to avoid it.

Dear OT,
You got to understand this strategy has been tested only for 6 months & i am sure it has lot more to offer than what i really know off till now.

My intention here is to make sure WE don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade so pardon me if i continue to bring in new dimensions & outliers going forward.

In the end, i am happy for the fact that it did what it was suppose to by achieving the full target of 6131.30 after sustaining the lower breakout level of 6174.55 twice in the morning.

Raj Sir, Thanks for your excellent analysis on Chart reading once again. It did help.

Cheers!

Baba, your stop loss for the short entry would have worked in hindsight. But as seen in the above posts, you mentioned to get out of shorts at some point. If you see the charts today, re-entry was next to impossible.. there was a vertical drop from 6205 levels, so difficult to enter a new position.
If you were to analyze the trade retrospectively, how would you have traded differently and why? We are all interested to understand the nuances of the system