NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[funkyvaib]

Thanks Raj for detailed explanation. So, I believe its prudent to sit on sell side for levels close to 6220-6250 atleast.

Also, do you think this rally can extend non-stop (like in 2009 elections) to 7k levels or so (as most guys are predicting!) before election result on 16th May OR downside is emminent before starting up again?

In below, how did you arrive at 240? Is it 6500-6200-60?

Thanks for your help! :thumb:

Regards
Vaib

I don't like to Speculate but since you have asked for it.

Looking at the OI, the Range MAX TOP for this series could be 6430 since the MAX OI is at 6200-6400 and MAX Pain is also at 6300 (Average of 6200 and6400).

So If MAX OI does not change to say 6450/6500 then we can consider 6400 as the TOP and take positions accordingly.

Expiry is a little far away and so we have a long time for that.

If I Remember correctly Yesterday or Day before Yesterday NIFTY Futures made a Freak low of 5600. So even 5600 should be possible .

On a Serious note, Just to purely speculate 6500 could also be top looking at today's COI of 6300-6500.

Plus I normally calculate 60 points at a time for NIFTY. Accordingly this Series has been going on NON STOP from 5980.

So 240 points from 5980 would be 6220, where there was a small correction.
And 240 points from 6220 would be 6460.

So may be 6460 might be top of this Series.

But I have always seen that the Last 50 points is very difficult to Get and so the First Correction might actually start at 6460-50=6410.

So Watch 6410 carefully... 6400/10 is already the RESISTANCE in the daily charts and the hourly charts. As per OI also 6400 is the RESISTANCE right now.

Those who have been lucky with the Bull ride from 5980 / 6220 then one must seriously thinking of booking at least 50% profits at 6400

 

[healthraj]

Thanks Raj for detailed explanation. So, I believe its prudent to sit on sell side for levels close to 6220-6250 atleast.

Also, do you think this rally can extend non-stop (like in 2009 elections) to 7k levels or so (as most guys are predicting!) before election result on 16th May OR downside is emminent before starting up again?

In below, how did you arrive at 240? Is it 6500-6200-60?

Thanks for your help! :thumb:

Regards
Vaib

I am not sure about the Election Rally. But I think this rally which has run UP from 5980 will surely have a correction. As for as I know, I have seen breakouts in Lower timeframes (less than 60 minute) but I have not seen any breakouts/breakdowns in the hourly, Daily charts. So I am damn sure about one thing. This rally would definitely need to correct around 6450/60 Levels.

240 is 4 times 60. 60 is approximately one percent of NIFTY value. Since now NIFTY is around 6400, you can take 64 instead of 60. Just think you are a positional trader. What is the minimum profit you would want? At least 2% in NIFTY, because you anyway get 1% on a Intraday basis.

So as positional trader you look for 120 (2 times 60), OR 240 OR 360 or 480 points. I mean in multiples of 120...

By this way you could get the right entry also...

Look at NIFTY SPOT chart you will see some Key Pivots like 5980, 6100, 6220, 6340 and you should also see 6460.

 

[healthraj]

I am not sure about the Election Rally. But I think this rally which has run UP from 5980 will surely have a correction. As for as I know, I have seen breakouts in Lower timeframes (less than 60 minute) but I have not seen any breakouts/breakdowns in the hourly, Daily charts. So I am damn sure about one thing. This rally would definitely need to correct around 6450/60 Levels.

240 is 4 times 60. 60 is approximately one percent of NIFTY value. Since now NIFTY is around 6400, you can take 64 instead of 60. Just think you are a positional trader. What is the minimum profit you would want? At least 2% in NIFTY, because you anyway get 1% on a Intraday basis.

So as positional trader you look for 120 (2 times 60), OR 240 OR 360 or 480 points. I mean in multiples of 120...

By this way you could get the right entry also...

Look at NIFTY SPOT chart you will see some Key Pivots like 5980, 6100, 6220, 6340 and you should also see 6460.

Sorry the bottom of this Rally is I think is 5933. So we should be able to see levels 6053, 6173, 6293 and we should see 6413 also...

Correct me If I am wrong because I have only the basic Excel Google finance charts and so I am not able to see the past data...

 

[funkyvaib]

Awesome Raj sir. Very helpful. Many thanks. :thumb:

I am not sure about the Election Rally. But I think this rally which has run UP from 5980 will surely have a correction. As for as I know, I have seen breakouts in Lower timeframes (less than 60 minute) but I have not seen any breakouts/breakdowns in the hourly, Daily charts. So I am damn sure about one thing. This rally would definitely need to correct around 6450/60 Levels.

240 is 4 times 60. 60 is approximately one percent of NIFTY value. Since now NIFTY is around 6400, you can take 64 instead of 60. Just think you are a positional trader. What is the minimum profit you would want? At least 2% in NIFTY, because you anyway get 1% on a Intraday basis.

So as positional trader you look for 120 (2 times 60), OR 240 OR 360 or 480 points. I mean in multiples of 120...

By this way you could get the right entry also...

Look at NIFTY SPOT chart you will see some Key Pivots like 5980, 6100, 6220, 6340 and you should also see 6460.

 

[funkyvaib]

Looks like no end to this rally

 

[bapu4]

RAJ BRO,
i GOT MY CLARIFICATION!!

 

[Gandhar.]

Looks like no end to this rally

bnf is out of control

 

[healthraj]

Looks like no end to this rally

Yes it is the power of institutions. So we have to play with stop loss. If you want to play as a positional trader, I think you can hold on to your shorts with Stop loss of say 50 points. Intraday trader, play with strict stop loss.

 

[amitrandive]

NIFTY Charts

Pictures Speak Better than Words. So I will leave you guys to decide. I make my decisions based on these charts. These are Excel charts that I prepare using the Google Finance charts.

As you will see that Major Resistance is around 6408-6413, the Reason for which I am asking people to be careful at 6410. This is a Technical view. If for some reason if the FIIs wants to push their button to wantedly challenge the Technicals. That is very much possible. But after that the technical will somehow fall in place.

The Dotted red line is the Resistance for the last 20 candles
The dotted Green line is the Support for the last 20 candles.
The red line is resistance from the last 80 candles
The Green line is Support from the last 80 candles
The Violet line is the Stop loss

The Blue lines are the Pivot lines. Light blue (20 candles). Dark blue (80 candles).
So this is my recent system to find the SELL and BUY points.
It is not a perfect system but it seems to be working for me.

The Lines are drawn automatically using the Trend calculation and it is not drawn manually like you do in the charts

I have also used a combination of Standard Deviation the Stocks Volatility to draw the Support, Resistance and Pivot lines

NIFTY Daily Broad Trend

NIFTY Daily Zoomed

NIFTY HTF Broad trend

NIFTY HTF Closer look

NIFTY LTF Broad Trend

NIFTY LTF Closer Look

HealthRaj Sir

Amazing Analysis !!!:clap:

 

[SuperSaiyan]

Taking risky play 6200 PE 3000 at 16.6
this one is based on my personnel belief what goes down rapidly does kicks out i.e comes up

no Technical indicator noting lol

i know i am mad bear lol
Trading rule says don;t caryy forward . but rules are meant to be broken
decided to carry forward it and will sell this one on 17-18 March Or R.s 45 whatever is hitted first ... decided