My trades are based in the Lower time frame and Hourly charts. Of course People can speculate anything. 8000 is just 250 points away from the current levels. So it can do it any day
Let me Speculate this way...
Since the Railway budget is positive, People might Speculate that the main budget will also be growth oriented and take NIFTY to around 7950 Levels in another 2 days....
OR The Institutions might USE the positive Sentiment to Off load their Stocks and will Start from Zero after the Budget is Settled down... So any thing is possible
here is my speculation -
Railway budget has shown us one thing for clearly... there wasnt enough time for a concrete plan so we didnt see a full plan of bullet train or fdi, imo we are going to see similar thing in main budget, GST and other big things need time for implementation so i am seeing this budget as an indicator of budget next year. So on basis of this i am expecting following things -
1. We have achieved temporary high and any subsequent upmove will be used for exit. Thursday budget will be announced, as i expect selling to come at higher levels i will be looking to create short positions from tomorrow instead of my earlier plan of taking short position on budget day. Actually should have started this yesterday only, still inexperienced.
2. A positive budget will give one more trading idea i.e long for next feb budget which i will do in around dec, jan( i know still long time for this).
3. Suppose i am wrong and we achieve new high this thursday then i will wait for few days as i think even after achieving new highs on thursdays it will be very difficult to sustain that. If buying comes even in next week then i will simply book loss.
I will be risking less amount than i risked for long near 7500 as this is counter trend and may need some more room to pan out.
