NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[soumanag]

For May 15 Series Expiry, 6 days are left. Market is above 8350plus for the past 3 days.
RBI is meeting on 2/6/2015. Marketmen are expecting a rate cut due to low inflation rate.
So they will start discounting till May end which means Market is likely to remain steady.
My idea is why should not we sell 8000PE and 8100PE ( total Rs20 ) and eat the Premium.
These are likely to end worthless on expiry.

Hi,
In case some black swan event happens in between & market goes down then you will be totally exposed. At present Max OI put @ 8300 suggests market wont go below this point easily but we can't be 100% sure. Suggest keep some hedging using deep ohm calls just to be on safe side.

 

[soumanag]

I am struck in 8200pe at buying avg of 54. Is there any RBI related news before this expiry ?

RBI policy on 3rd June. However Rajan has surprised market a couple of times. Btw last time when rates were reduced market also fell. People are pricing in everything well in advance I guess :lol:

 

[healthraj]

MAX OI @ 8300-8500. Changed from 8100-8500 to 8300-8500. So it is a bullish signal.

MAX COI is at 8400-8300. When the CE Strike is less than the PE Strike, it normally indicates a Reversal or Strong move.

As per HTF, the Resistance is at 8530 SPOT.

As per Daily Futures Chart, the Resistance is at 8550 Futures.

So Around 8550 Futures, if the MAX OI @ CE remains at 8500, then one can Try selling the pair 8300-8500. With the current VOLT ~15%, one should get 8500CE @ 110 and 8300PE @ 10. So Totally the price should be 120.

If NIFTY Moves to 8400 from 8530, the Total premium should become 80, with a profit of 40 points.

So keep a watch on 8530 SPOT and trade accordingly.

The charts for NIFTY Daily Futures and Hourly Spot. I have removed the Polynomial minor Trend since the crowd is using Linear Trend

 

[jagankris]

RBI policy on 3rd June. However Rajan has surprised market a couple of times. Btw last time when rates were reduced market also fell. People are pricing in everything well in advance I guess :lol:

And what is this funda of pricing in the RBI event ?
How to know if it is already priced or not ?

 

[healthraj]

BNF

MAX OI @ 17500-18500. MAX COI @ 18000-20000. Looking at COI Average we can expect BANKNIFTY @ 19000.

As per Options Chain data the TREND is UP.

As per HTF, the Resistance is at 18790 SPOT.

As per Daily Futures Chart, the Resistance is at 19393 Futures.

Look for a BO @ 18625 SPOT for a STRONG UP Move, Since the LTF resistance is at 18625 SPOT

BANKNIFTY Charts Daily Futures and Hourly SPOT

 

[soumanag]

And what is this funda of pricing in the RBI event ?
How to know if it is already priced or not ?

No way to know what is going to happen man we are mere mortals not masters of universe like FII money managers are

 

[anilnegi]

The charts for NIFTY Daily Futures and Hourly Spot. I have removed the Polynomial minor Trend since the crowd is using Linear Trend

Raj bhai did you share link for this excel chart, i dont have pls share if possible

thanks

 

[jagankris]

No way to know what is going to happen man we are mere mortals not masters of universe like FII money managers are

Exactly my point
These pricing in etc are Jargon's used by the TV people who will speak smilingly after markets reacting the event.
If rally they will say not priced else priced in. :rofl:

 

[TraderRavi]

Raj bhai did you share link for this excel chart, i dont have pls share if possible

thanks

this excel is not available for sharing.

 

[healthraj]

BANK NIFTY today

MAX OI and COI at 18000-19000. The TREND as per both OI and COI is UP.

Since the COI Range is broad, it is expected to be a FLAT session.

LTF - 18400-18700 - TREND UP
Hourly Chart Range - 18200-19000 - TREND IS UP
Daily Range -17000-19400 - TREND DOWN

Watch for 18400