NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

Next Opportunity for Pair Trading

1. In LTF and Hourly Charts the Resistance is around 8150/60. 8160 is also the Resistance in the Daily Minor Trend.
2. Need to get a TREND Confirmation from COI before entering the Trade. Right now it is UP
3. At 8150 Levels, One should be able to SELL the Pair 7850PE-8200CE around 115-120. ie 7850PE @ 25-30 and 8200CE @ 90-95.
4. Note that at 8150 7850Pe and 8200CE Are not ITM/ATM Calls
5. Set the Stoploss and Target as 30 points. So stoploss would be 160 points and Profit booking at 90 points
7. In the Daily and Monthly Charts there is some unfinished business for this Down trend. Daily Support at 7880. Monthly Pivot is at 7875. So the next major Bounce might come around 7870 Levels. Weekly Support has been moving down and so we cannot Trust the Weekly Levels.

Yesterday Not able to cross the Resistance of 8160. But 8200CE was not available around 90.

So NIFTY is going down to meet the Support @ 7850. (MAX OI @ PE has now moved to 7800 from 8000) If we get NIFTY around 8040, then it might be another opportunity to Enter.

So apart from Open Interest, Chart also plays an important Role in the Decision making.

 

[healthraj]

NIFTY Daily Futures Chart

 

[healthraj]

BANKNIFTY Daily Futures

HOLD SELL since Support is at 17000. Just as on observation MAX is at the Daily Range of 17000PE-18500CE. So if one is able to Predict this Range by looking the Daily charts, then one Can SELL this pair at the beginning of the month and Wait for the expiry. But as novice trader we cannot do such boring trades. We want to trade daily

 

[healthraj]

So what is the strategy for the people who have less Premiums and still want to do pair trading. Normally it is good to do these kind of trades when NIFTY is trading near the Daily/Weekly/Monthly Pivot and we clearly know the Monthly Range.

Let us see if we have one right now.

Right now NIFTY is trading near the Daily Pivot @ 8150. So we have an opportunity. Daily Range is 600 points. 300 on the UP side from 8150 to 8450 and 300 points on the DOWN side from 8150 to 7850. So If NIFTY makes strong moves either one of them is possible.

Either 8450 or 7850 is possible.

So the Strategy of Trading at Daily Pivot should have worked Yesterday. NIFTY moved around 200 points, which was an opportunity for Pair Buyers. When NIFTY is trading the Daily/Weekly/Monthly Pivot Such kind of Speculation and a BIG move normally happens. If you have missed this time, then one should look for the next opportunity @ 7875, Since 7875 is the Pivot in the Monthly charts.

NIFTY Monthly Chart

 

[timepass]

But as novice trader we cannot do such boring trades. We want to trade daily

:rofl:

 

[healthraj]

Hi,

IMO it is because of FII selling. FIIs are pulling out hot money (which was responsible for relentless upmove in recent past) and moving it in China market.
Our markets will be in bear grip unless earnings pick up and FIIs turns net buyers.
If you see the FII data for last few weeks you would realize the same.
Bottom line, it will be very difficult for market to turn bullish till next quarterly results which needs to be good.

My humble opinion is not to read too much on FII data. If one is a Day trader one should not look at these data. Trade only based on technicals. Even going by fundamentals there is no fundamental to suggest a Sell. So tecynically it is part of the demand supply cycle. Whatever goes UP needs to go go DOWN and vice versa

 

[soumanag]

My humble opinion is not to read too much on FII data. If one is a Day trader one should not look at these data. Trade only based on technicals. Even going by fundamentals there is no fundamental to suggest a Sell. So tecynically it is part of the demand supply cycle. Whatever goes UP needs to go go DOWN and vice versa

Hi Raj,

Fully agree technicals are best for day / short term trades.
I was not talking about day trading. News / event based day trading for retail traders is very risky since we are the last one to receive the information. Actually I was trying to explore a reason why NIFTY is in bearish trend even when global markets are doing fine and what may be the next trigger for the market to resume bullish trend.
Also this is not within the scope of this thread but I follow only this one

 

[mvkarthik]

MAX CHOI Time-09.47

CE 8000- 366,950
PE 7800- 217,400

 

[kcsusha]

Karthik Sir,
A small correction Max COI is at 7900 ( +3.12 ) and 8000 ( +4.39 )

 

[mvkarthik]

MAX CHOI Time-09.47

CE 8000- 366,950
PE 7800- 217,400

pair sell
CE 8xxx
PE 7xxx
pair sell at-101.8
-------------------
stop loss hit
exit at 102.50