NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

In the August Series : MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6500 Pair. So may be market would Try and touch Highs... All depends on what is the Low after touching 6100. In July Series 500 points made by the Big Instituitions from 5600-6100.

Now in August Series another 500 points may be there. For that we have to find the low. If market touches 5800, then it would be ideal.

Anyway for those who want to make an early start in August Series - Try and sell the pair 5800Pe-6200CE or 5900PE-6300CE Pair , which are available at 95+. Right now we don't know whether market head south or North so we can use the moment to SELL.

I have sold the Aug-13, 5800PE-6200CE Pair for 102.7 - For positional - Not for Intraday

 

[shiv2012]

Is the excel sheet for options available?

 

[ashish1980]

Thanks Raj:clap:

 

[healthraj]

24-Jul-13 Option analysis

9:30 AM : Early morning PEs are getting squared Off. Yesterday it was Calls. Today it would be the day for Puts.
The MAX Pain is still at 6000.
MAX CHG in OI - 5800-6000 - Favouring Bears
MAX OI - 5900-6200 - Favouring Bulls
Total CHG in OI indicates a SELL.
Today we might not get a 60 point range. Pivot is at 6070 - Next support is at 6040. So sell near 6070 and if 6040 breaks could give another 20-25 points.

One day before the Expiry do not expect any big move. The market makers would be busy rounding off their positions.

Those who are doing Options trading avoid Longs on CE or PE. If you feel market is bearish then SELL the Calls. If bullish SELL the Puts.

For Pair Trading. Same pair 6000CE-600PE. The Volatility is UP and so it should be good to SELL with higher premium. Sell the pair if you get around 80-85

10:00 AM

MAX CGH in OI at 6000PE-6000CE pair and the pain started for those holding Long positions in 6000PE or 6000CE.[/QUOTE]

1:15 PM
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6000.

Today so far -44L PEs squared off. On a typical day if so much squaring happens then the market would fall heavily. So in the last week the squating off needs to be looked at differently.

While Jul-13 series was giving a SELL signal, Aug-13 was giving a BUY signal.

For today Hope 30L Shorts in 6000CE, Market might not cross 6030. So those who want to sell NIFTY or the Pair can trade once again around 6030. 5900 PE has the max OI 1C. so market will also not break 5970 for the Jul-13 series.

As I have been telling, the Jul-13 Series will expire around 6000. Looking at the Options data it would be above 6000... Say around 6030.

In the morning the Volatility was around 35-40% which has now come down to 28.26.

For Expiry, the important observation or the learning is the MAX Pain theory. The 6000 pair which was trading at around 110+, today is trading half the value of 55. Tomorrow it might even become Zero if market expires exactly around 6000

 

[VJAY]

Nice observations raj......Keep it up ..it will help us to understand options in better way....

 

[healthraj]

24-Jul-13 Option analysis

1:15 PM
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6000.

Today so far -44L PEs squared off. On a typical day if so much squaring happens then the market would fall heavily. So in the last week the squating off needs to be looked at differently.

For today Hope 30L Shorts in 6000CE, Market might not cross 6030. So those who want to sell NIFTY or the Pair can trade once again around 6030. 5900 PE has the max OI 1C. so market will also not break 5970 for the Jul-13 series.

In the morning the Volatility was around 35-40% which has now come down to 28.26.

2:30 PM:
MAX CHG in OI @ 5900-6000. It seems 6000 might be very tough to cross today - Which is good for the 6000 Pair. Next month I will try to hold it for some more time . The Greedy part of mind not happy with 40 points

-51L PEs squared off so far.

However World markets are in Green. So better to close the SHORT positions before 3 pm because the market might try to do the catch up in the last 30 minutes. Remember in the the Aug-13 Series it is a BUY signal.
The Volatility has come down to 25% from 35% in the morning.

 

[healthraj]

I have sold the Aug-13, 5800PE-6200CE Pair for 102.7 - For positional - Not for Intraday

At 3:25 PM the Pair was trading at 94.5 - With 8 points profit. Tomorrow if the market opens flat should give another 3.5 points (TheTA - The Time Decay value)

Did not take any other positions at EOD

The Jul-13 6000PE-6000CE pair closed at 47.5. Tomorrow if the market opens FLAT, then another 25 points will be gone. Just wanted to Track this pair so that we can learn for next month. Let us see at what values it expires tomorrow. Anything less than 5 should be a Jackpot considering that the time it takes to decay from 115.

 

[gmt900]

24-Jul-13 Option analysis

1:15 PM
MAX CHG in OI at 5900-6000.

Today so far -44L PEs squared off. On a typical day if so much squaring happens then the market would fall heavily. So in the last week the squating off needs to be looked at differently.

For today Hope 30L Shorts in 6000CE, Market might not cross 6030. So those who want to sell NIFTY or the Pair can trade once again around 6030. 5900 PE has the max OI 1C. so market will also not break 5970 for the Jul-13 series.

In the morning the Volatility was around 35-40% which has now come down to 28.26.

2:30 PM:
MAX CHG in OI @ 5900-6000. It seems 6000 might be very tough to cross today - Which is good for the 6000 Pair. Next month I will try to hold it for some more time . The Greedy part of mind not happy with 40 points -51L PEs squared off so far.

However World markets are in Green. So better to close the SHORT positions before 3 pm because the market might try to do the catch up in the last 30 minutes. Remember in the the Aug-13 Series it is a BUY signal.
The Volatility has come down to 25% from 35% in the morning.

While your analysis based on Max Pain theory was on the dot, RBI amnnouncement last evening helped. Point being things might not have bben as rosy as they turned out to be.

 

[healthraj]

While your analysis based on Max Pain theory was on the dot, RBI amnnouncement last evening helped. Point being things might not have bben as rosy as they turned out to be.

I do not agree because that is the view given by the media channels like cnbc. That is the "fundamentals" view. So it is a choice you have to make. My opinion is that if you are doing Intraday trading do not give much importance to Fundamentals. Give more importance to Technicals. In summary do not mix both technicals and fundamentals.

In two days if the market zooms to higher levels, then will this fundamental hold true? Then the media channels will say something else. Whatver RBI does should be anyway for good only. So this is just an excuse for Markets to Short and create the negative sentiment so that more people will join the Selling.

So another opinion from my point of view is that do not watch the TV channels during the day. If you want to watch, do it after the Market hours.

Do all your homework after the market hours. When you are trading do not let anybody confuse you (that includes me also) with their ideas. At least my point of view for the past one month, I don't go and look out for any ideas from anybody. Stick with your research and trade accordingly. If my research was wrong, I will at lease own the responsibility. Sorry If I am sounding like preaching

 

[gmt900]

I do not agree because that is the view given by the media channels like cnbc. That is the "fundamentals" view. So it is a choice you have to make. My opinion is that if you are doing Intraday trading do not give much importance to Fundamentals. Give more importance to Technicals. In summary do not mix both technicals and fundamentals.

In two days if the market zooms to higher levels, then will this fundamental hold true? Then the media channels will say something else. Whatver RBI does should be anyway for good only. So this is just an excuse for Markets to Short and create the negative sentiment so that more people will join the Selling.

So another opinion from my point of view is that do not watch the TV channels during the day. If you want to watch, do it after the Market hours.

Do all your homework after the market hours. When you are trading do not let anybody confuse you (that includes me also) with their ideas. At least my point of view for the past one month, I don't go and look out for any ideas from anybody. Stick with your research and trade accordingly. If my research was wrong, I will at lease own the responsibility. Sorry If I am sounding like preaching

No Raj, you do not sound like peaching. You are confident about your analysis and that is more important . Both your points are well taken. Frankly, people like me are rookies when it comes to the kind of analysis you are doing.
It is thanks to you that we are able to understand the significance of things like OI, Volumes etc. We will continue to learn at our pace and hopefully be able to independently analyse the market some day.
Thanks and regards,
gmt900