Slight missing, may be confusing for new comer - Vikas, the Premium is the POSITIVE DIFFERENCE between the NIFTY Spot and Futures, NEGATIVE DIFFERENCE is call Discount....
I think next week this market can fall towards 5738-5750 levels because:
a) 5750 is 0.382 retracement levels from 5120-6143 levels (SPOT)
b) On daily charts,Left Shoulder value is 5738 levels hence if H&S has to form then right shoulder value should come close to 5738 levels.
The INDIAVIX and NIFTY has formed a BIG FLAG from this morning and not giving any Direction. Also because 5800 is a Major support. So look for a Breakout of INDIAVIX and/or NIFTY for further move. This Breakout should minimum give 100 points.
Those Who have Gone Short at current levels should keep 5785 SPOT as the Stoploss
But the Intraday pivot is at 5720. So I think it should be a SELL till we reach 5720 (Futures price). since the Market opened at 5846, 60 points from there should be 5784. So we should at least get 5784 today. If 5784 breaks then another 60 points which will take to 5724.
First Target of 5784 met. Tomorrow we might see 5720 and we might see a Pull back. I am saying pull back is possible at 5700 because the MAX OI still 5700-6000. Let us see tomorrow if the 5700 changes to a Lower value in which case more downside might be possible. Otherwise 5700 might be the Low
since there was a GAP Down the fight is now between 5600-5800. But there is not much volume because the institutions might have taken their SELL positions on Friday itself and there are no Fresh SELL positions.
Keep a Watch on the MAX COI. The Volume is only in the range 2L.
The only SAFE Trade now as the OHLC method is SELL 6100CE.
First Target of 5784 met. Tomorrow we might see 5720 and we might see a Pull back. I am saying pull back is possible at 5700 because the MAX OI still 5700-6000. Let us see tomorrow if the 5700 changes to a Lower value in which case more downside might be possible. Otherwise 5700 might be the Low
We started the Series with 66 as the Premium for NIFTY Futures. Today we closed with 41.8 as the Premium. Almost 30% reduction. Does this signal any Pullback? Tomorrow the market will React to the US Debt Ceiling decision with a GAP UP or GAP DOWN.