Nifty trend

[jagankris]

Thanks a lot KF
Is there any way to track the no of trades executed at the bid rates ?

 

[Capricorn]

Basket selling by some very large institutional seller executed at bid rates by institutional broker like Enam, IDFC capital etc.

No one in this world know who the seller was, who the broker was who executed the trade. Experienced traders know one thing that some large guy is swallowing all the bid and selling hugely, so exit all long trades.

When an institutional seller sells, the seller swallows all the bid rate in the order book. Within 5 minutes, Nifty Future felt from 6070 to 5976 as all the bid rates in the order book were swallowed.

Everything else is a myth. Business channels will give you a reason because it was expiry day this selling happened. On expiry day, Nifty could move up as well as it has done in past series.

Technical traders will give you all kinds of reason- 61 Fib got hit or SMA crossover or RSI hit magical 80 ! These are man made human reasons.

No one in this world knows when an institutional seller will sell or buy. Only the brokerage guys in institutional team knows it when they receive the order which is few second before the selling starts but they dont conduct their own trades to avoid conflict of interest.

But from my experience, once a trader become experienced in watching this couple of times, he knows something is wrong and he can exit the long once selling starts. He may or may not take short but with experience, he knows it is better to exit long as selling is quite intense, fast and furious.

Its quite obvious that a large move either way is due to large orders coming in a certain direction. Probably a coincidence it almost always happens at fib levels.
Every one is bound to have their own interpretations of what's happening in the markets and the market proves u right or wrong without bias.

By the way you've missed out the Index management argument on expiry day.

Some people believe that even God is a man made myth , tell that to PT and he would probably blanche .

Have a nice weekend.

 

[kingfisher3210]

Its quite obvious that a large move either way is due to large orders coming in a certain direction. Probably a coincidence it almost always happens at fib levels.
Every one is bound to have their own interpretations of what's happening in the markets and the market proves u right or wrong without bias.

By the way you've missed out the Index management argument on expiry day.

Some people believe that even God is a man made myth , tell that to PT and he would probably blanche .

Have a nice weekend.

I agree with you Capricorn. I myself have used Fib at one point of time in currency trading and this is one good indicator which many traders use around globe.

Index management on expiry day is a good point. But the question remains: How could you incorporate that in your trading system for profits?

It is a good point you have mentioned that everyone acts on their belief, interpretations to put pressure on price. This is what makes trading tough and messy.

If every trader agree to follow one trading system be it fib, pivot points, S/R etc, then that trading system will work like a charm. Then trading will become first in first out game. Just like a Red and green light- Red means stop and green means go and everyone follows it.

Enjoy your weekend.

 

[kingfisher3210]

Thanks a lot KF
Is there any way to track the no of trades executed at the bid rates ?

In IIFL software, there is an option tick list. So during live market hours, it tells at what tick order is getting executed and how many quantities. I dont know about other trading software but i think it should be there on other softwares as well.

I remember seeing the tick list on Oct 28- 5 minute 100 point fall. It was a mayhem. In some ticks, Quantities were like 50,000 units of nifty future getting swallowed in one second.

 

[stock72]

I agree with you Capricorn. I myself have used Fib at one point of time in currency trading and this is one good indicator which many traders use around globe.

Index management on expiry day is a good point. But the question remains: How could you incorporate that in your trading system for profits?

It is a good point you have mentioned that everyone acts on their belief, interpretations to put pressure on price. This is what makes trading tough and messy.

If every trader agree to follow one trading system be it fib, pivot points, S/R etc, then that trading system will work like a charm. Then trading will become first in first out game. Just like a Red and green light- Red means stop and green means go and everyone follows it.

Enjoy your weekend.

If every one follow a single system then I think only FA will be there and no more technical anlysis ..

 

[kingfisher3210]

If every one follow a single system then I think only FA will be there and no more technical anlysis ..

I just gave a hypothetical example. Obviously everyone following same trading system is not going to happen. If it happens, the trading Eco system will collapse.

From my experience in interacting with top global traders, they are tuned with 'collective market consciousness'. They dont believe or follow individuality- like my indicators, my MACD, my MA crossover, my belief, my theory. They understand from their thousands hours of experience how collectively things move.

Pivot points is one indicator which i found works in currency trading. The reason is many traders including the big guys in bank follow it and it becomes self fulfilling prophecy. It is not a holy grail indicator but after mastering it, one has an edge in pivot point trading in currency markets.:thumb:

 

[Capricorn]

Lets get back to work...

NIfty will be +ve if it can sustain above 6040

R @ 6050 , 6090 , 6150.

S @ 6000 , 5960 , 5930.

5900 is major support.

Trade well .

 

[trade.learner27]

Lets get back to work...

NIfty will be +ve if it can sustain above 6040

R @ 6050 , 6090 , 6150.

S @ 6000 , 5960 , 5930.

5900 is major support.

Trade well .

Hello Capri

I have nifty future at 6110...now it is 4140...should I keep the long or book it & enter below 6100 ?

Arun

 

[Capricorn]

If u can book part position do it and trail at 6150 NF.

6150 spot is tgt level.

 

[rrmhatre72]

If u can book part position do it and trail at 6150 NF.

6150 spot is tgt level.

Market is finding difficult to cross 6135.
It made 3attempts till now. let us see how it shape up till end of day......