Nifty trend

[RAWT]

hi, can u expect nifty down next week, which stock go up 0r down . & how to find live nifty chart during market hour.

with regards

 

[kingfisher3210]

Highest volume since May 19th
Huge fall since June 7th
Widest Range since Oct 15th

We see what happened then....

In May, price consolidated before falling down 2.3%. (Retraced later by expiry)

In June, it fell and bounced back and gone high (no looking back)

In Oct... (Data are very similar)

Oct was pretty volatile and swung wide. It happened (wide swing) just before the weekend, same as today. It swung but couldn't hold high... Fell down below 6000 and swung back to 6100. Again couldn't hold fell down and closed below 6000 by expiry.

There are talk that market would go down in late Nov to Dec. Anticipations are more down than up. I doubt nifty could go beyond 6200.

If nifty behaves same as Oct, we can bring Oct EOD chart and trade...

Good Analysis. But remember:

"Every day Market represent itself in an infinite combination of ways". The broader patterns are repetitive but not exactly in the same way.

Market is made up of interacting homo sapiens and every day many new traders enter and old traders exit the market. On any given day, the traders who are making the market are different from traders yesterday or week before or month before or year before.

People are neurotic because of the different neurotransmitters our brain releases to express different emotions like GREED, FEAR, ANGER, PANIC etc and the markets, since they are large collections of people, are also neurotic. So broader patterns in the market are always same right from the time market started 200 years ago.

Yes you are very right. Oct 15, 2010 is the same pattern. It was Friday and i remember this day and market movements fluently.

On Oct 15, 2010- Nifty Future gap up 12 points at 6205 and made high of the day-6225 within a minute.

Then it started to fall from there and by 2 p.m, it was 6147. Another round of selling came and Nifty Future made low of the day at 6074 by closing. It closed at 6094.

 

[kingfisher3210]

I am expecting Nifty Future weak tomorrow and looking at possible 6170- around 1% cut assuming overnight bullish run does not take place.

If overnight bullish run takes place, then a different future will be created tomorrow as sentiments will be changed.

The interacting homo sapiens will create 'market' for tomorrow. The collective psychology of all interacting homo sapiens suggest bearish for tomorrow.

Remember , buyers could line up at 6170 or 6150 in nifty future and there could be surge in afternoon session but i will not try to catch a long. A short tomorrow morning can give 30-40 points which is the target i focus on.

Going with the flow, going with momentum day by day.

Allright. 6170, 6150, 6100 everything came and went

This is the reason i never try to catch a long in the falling market. No person in this world knows what will be the low of the day. Even NSE CEO does not have any idea where low of the day will be made.

Sometimes market bounce like on Nov 9, 2010, Tuesday - Nifty Future bounced from 6261 low of the day to 6347 high of the day. Even on this day a short of 30-40 points was possible in morning session before market reverse itself.

Sometimes Nifty Future never bounce back like today or on Oct 15, 2010 which i had discussed it in my previous post. So, i never take a risk of going long in a falling market when short gives me nice points.

2 Scenarios for Monday. Only one can possibly play out:

1) Asia markets are in green at 8:30 a.m. All Asia markets are in green and are up 1% +. Nifty Future could open gap up and can bounce back 100 points from previous close. This is psychological bounce back as traders emotions will play out. The emotion- 'Fear of missing out a rally' is one of the trading emotions which plays out again and again and this will cause a rally.

2) Asia is down and in red. Another short in Morning as Nifty Future could quickly loose 1%- 60-70 points.

It could bounce back from 6000, 6010, 6020, 6030- But no way i am going to take a long intra day if second scenario plays out. A short in this scenario at opening can possibly give 30-50 points, so my idea would be to enter, exit and enjoy the rest of the day. No GREED in playing for a long.

By 8:30 a.m, i could draw a clear trading plan on any one of the above scenarios.

Markets are in perpetual motion all day where money is exchanging hands. It is very important for traders to plan where to enter, where to exit, how to deactivate FEAR, GREED, EXCITEMENT and other trading emotions.

Happy weekends to all.

 

[bazawaza]

I like your plan but I prepare to just watch the nifty movement for first 1 or 2 hrs before taking the call.
bcas many time nifty reacted completely different than its global peers in the past.

Cheers

 

[kingfisher3210]

I like your plan but I prepare to just watch the nifty movement for first 1 or 2 hrs before taking the call.
bcas many time nifty reacted completely different than its global peers in the past.

Cheers

Yup buddy...Watching global peers and trying to copy their movement is waste. Nifty has its own mind.

At one point i used to do that but realized its not useful at all. But you need to watch for change of sentiments. How this drama can fold out in scenario 1:

If by chance all Asia is up 1% and green on Monday, business channels, financial newspapers will report something like this. Udayan Mukherjee on CNBC TV 18 Morning bell at 8 a.m will say something like this:

"Quite a bad day on Friday we had but now as weekend progressed, there was quite a positive news about no rate hike from China and what really lifted the sentiments on weekend was Ireland Prime Minister statement that Ireland is stable and can pay its debts comfortably avoiding any default.

This is a pull back rally which we are seeing on Monday morning..Everything is up..Asia Equity, Euro is back to 1.39 levels, Oil is doing good up 1%.

Some good reports coming from japan as well from Obama meeting about the currency war and recent yen appreciation and that has also lifted the sentiments. Traders are now building fresh longs. The major cause of worry which spooked the markets on Friday was China Rate Hike and Ireland Debt and now since these 2 events have reported positive progress, i think we will continue to see a bull run atleast for today"

And now Mitali Mukherjee will laugh like this :lol:

Brother, i have seen this drama played out again and again. Trading is actually a drama- Pattern Repeation Numbers game.

I am not tracking or analyzing any other global market except Nifty Future. However i will be watching it and asking 2 main questions-

1) How Asia is behaving? Is it up? If it is up, are sentiments lifted?

2) Is Asia Down? Is it in red? Are sentiments still down?

I dont know any exact answer, i have trained my mind and now my mind will find out what possible scenario is good.

If i am confused, i will not trade on that day. I will stay out.

On Oct 25, 2010 this same thing happened. Selling happened on Oct 22, 2010, Friday. Then on Monday Morning, Oct 25, 2010 Asian Markets are all up and in green. The drama at that point was G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Korea.

PS: By the way i dont watch CNBC. I used to watch it when i was a loosing trader. Now i dont watch it and some points comes my way/:clap:

Good Luck to Everyone. Lot of Nifty Points to everyone :thumb:

 

[rrmhatre72]

Yup buddy...Watching global peers and trying to copy their movement is waste. Nifty has its own mind.

At one point i used to do that but realized its not useful at all. But you need to watch for change of sentiments. How this drama can fold out in scenario 1:

If by chance all Asia is up 1% and green on Monday, business channels, financial newspapers will report something like this. Udayan Mukherjee on CNBC TV 18 Morning bell at 8 a.m will say something like this:

"Quite a bad day on Friday we had but now as weekend progressed, there was quite a positive news about no rate hike from China and what really lifted the sentiments on weekend was Ireland Prime Minister statement that Ireland is stable and can pay its debts comfortably avoiding any default.

This is a pull back rally which we are seeing on Monday morning..Everything is up..Asia Equity, Euro is back to 1.39 levels, Oil is doing good up 1%.

Some good reports coming from japan as well from Obama meeting about the currency war and recent yen appreciation and that has also lifted the sentiments. Traders are now building fresh longs. The major cause of worry which spooked the markets on Friday was China Rate Hike and Ireland Debt and now since these 2 events have reported positive progress, i think we will continue to see a bull run atleast for today"

And now Mitali Mukherjee will laugh like this :lol:

Brother, i have seen this drama played out again and again. Trading is actually a drama- Pattern Repeation Numbers game.

I am not tracking or analyzing any other global market except Nifty Future. However i will be watching it and asking 2 main questions-

1) How Asia is behaving? Is it up? If it is up, are sentiments lifted?

2) Is Asia Down? Is it in red? Are sentiments still down?

I dont know any exact answer, i have trained my mind and now my mind will find out what possible scenario is good.

If i am confused, i will not trade on that day. I will stay out.

On Oct 25, 2010 this same thing happened. Selling happened on Oct 22, 2010, Friday. Then on Monday Morning, Oct 25, 2010 Asian Markets are all up and in green. The drama at that point was G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Korea.

PS: By the way i dont watch CNBC. I used to watch it when i was a loosing trader. Now i dont watch it and some points comes my way/:clap:

Good Luck to Everyone. Lot of Nifty Points to everyone :thumb:

I do not think 1% jump in Nifty on either side is possible without involvement of biggies.... & I do not think they take decision based on what Udayan or Mitali says..... Some retail players may be doing this but they can not give direction to market........
So just forget what global is doing..... What CNBC is saying..... Just open your PC at 9am... observe the chart of Nifty only.... Check out the trend & take the position either long or short as per trend....
Even if there is any change in global sentiments & if it is going to hit Indian market then it will get reflected in Nifty chart also..... If you observe that on nifty chart then just reverse your position......

 

[trader_man]

PS: By the way i dont watch CNBC. I used to watch it when i was a loosing trader. Now i dont watch it and some points comes my way/:clap:

How many people here watch CNBC? I have stopped watching it for the last few months and I am very happy!

 

[kingfisher3210]

How many people here watch CNBC? I have stopped watching it for the last few months and I am very happy!

Watching CNBC or any business channels is 'information paralysis'.

Mind actually goes numb with so much information. Business channels are very good in making news out of tiny items.

You really do not need so much information to do trading. Initially i know all new traders think watching 24 hour business channels will make them good traders. But after some time reality starts hitting in.

 

[stock72]

How many people here watch CNBC? I have stopped watching it for the last few months and I am very happy!

I watch almost during market time when ever have access and time . but vioce will be muted.

 

[columbus]

I watch almost during market time when ever have access and time . but vioce will be muted.

I basically watch channels for news ,but not for market action.