Hello Abhi,
Sorry for pitching in late. First of all I greet you for all of your efforts and more than anything for your "sharing culture" and then that spectacular analytical ability."THERE ARE LAKHS OF PEOPLE WHO ANALYSE AFTER EVENT OCCURS ( HERDS) BUT THERE ARE RARELY FEW WHO CAN FORSEE WHATS COMING"(LEADERS). you belong to that rare category of 1% out of 100.I just started reading this post few days back and then got hooked to it and finished entire thread by yesterday.I think for the first time in this forum you have shown how small things can make huge difference in ones trading account. Congratulation and keep it up.
I have a question regarding this correction.
1.Is there any particular reason being betting on banking stocks? Don't you think realty stocks also will get huge beating?
will be there with lot of questions later.
Regards
Raghav
thanks ,
there are lots of reason , the circulation of money in an economy is done by the banks and these are the pilers of the financial sector in a country . if any kind of news is coming whether good or bad they show fastest recovery and and corrections . presently we thinking that world economy has recovered almost completely from the sub prime crisis in us but it is not like that, the recovery stimulus packages all around the world have stabilized the economies and markets up to great extent but , the disease is still not completely over , therefore we see get information about financial crises in different countries in
installments all government had prior knowledge that a financial crisis is going to hit markets but they do not disclose at ones because it will cause , fear in the financial markets and conditions would become more worse, and liquidity problem would come .
so we have seen a step by step bad news in us i.e., firstly sub prime mortgage hit , banking sector , some major banks became bankrupt and under huge liability burdens , markets made some great falls , then government announced stimulus packages which made markets to recover a bit then next news came , about real state, automobile , aviation , etc sectors one by one.
also at a single time only one country was being adversely affected , and after closing of this chapter only next chapter starts , for example dubai was also such chapter , what next ? may be china !!!!!
if we talk about our country only then the rising inflation and specially food price may lead to any rate hike by the RBI , which will slow the pace of recovery in the economy , market need maximum liquidity and credit , but any attempt to crub credit creation and liquidity will impact vary adversely to the market .
so banking is everywhere , and u can also see banking indices as a barometer for the financial health.
true i m also very much bearish on reality .
: reality and infra are the sectors of prime importance and in order to fetch maximum foreign capital and investment we need a very well developed infrastructure . but this sector is needs maximum capital expenditure and hence we need a very well developed credit and capital market , therefore the debt equity ratio is found maximum in case of a real state and infrastructure companies . when markets are down , economic activity slow then there is a fall in demand and also money supply to public and prices of almost everything falls and most adversely influenced sector is property . s
o these companies maximum operating on very high leverage and credit comes under huge losses due to their huge investment and falling property prices.
there are also several reasons , that is economic and market cycles , after every rise prices need some corrections , so that the price and their earnings may be in tune with each others this is well understood in terms of p/e ratio.
so any correction in market is not an obvious thing and there is nothing much to worry about and everything would be ok after some time and our market will again starts measuring new heights .
(technically such studies can be carried out with the help of elliot-wave theory)
and as markets are faster than news so i always prefer technicals in compair to news.
may some new twist come in the story which we have ignored and take market in upward direction
but we should try to control the controlables only
and always stick with the trend with proper money and risk management.
abhi:clap::clap: