Hi everyone today something special happened today and I think it may have a very long term consequences on our market and we should be ready for that , today 11 period ema clearly crossed 55 ema ( 11 ema represents is a short term trend and 55 period intermediate term as week have 5 trading days and hence it is 11 ema in weekly chart .) it has very-much importance in technical terms and it could be taken as a symbol of starting of a intermediate term bearish trend and there are also several reasons , since march 2009 when the bull phase was started , from that time we have been seeing a continuous bull run , and nifty retraced more than 61.8 % of total fall during bear market phase
,companies are fundamentally becoming over- valued , inflation is a major concern (not in our country but also in some other major states also such as china may be another good example ),also markets are quite above than their real economic fundamentals , all over the world , experts are saying that mkts have gone too much and any correction would be unavoidable , we can see in past data or in charts market has continuously failed to sustain supports at higher levels and always find difficulty in breaking resistances for example the breaking of 5180 was really tough when it happened, it should have acted as a support but it failed and mkt broken that level and is trading at quite lower levels , in such conditions , there should be a major correction in financial mkts ,
so if mkt falls this correction should be upto 4300 and 4000 levels (near about 38.2 -50% retracement of the net upside move). If we analyze mkt with the help of Elliot wave theory then also there should be any fall or correction after the first wave is complete so not sure but its the golden chance for the mkt to come down (correct ) and start next wave at lower or corrected levels with sound fundamentals and valuations .
if we look at past 1 month (January ) fii and dii activity we find that fii has net selling aroud
-7,200 crore and dii has a net buying around
12,222 crore a
lso fii are selling continuously for last 8 days and total selling amounts around -10926 crore where as during same time period dii has a net buying around 7734 crore one more point to note Is that for l
ast 8 days fii have not bought (net buying ) for even a single day .
It may seem a close tie between these two but if if continued for long , it would be a clearly a strong hand vs. weak hand clash
and who have what hand and what would be result of such clash we all know quite well .
I m posting this report to express what I feel and I may be right or wrong but the probability seems strong so be alert and dont take any rise as a bull run and just take it easily and as an ordinary move, if u r long book profits and avoid more holding try to cut your bulky positions and try to get liquidity if wanna invest or trade it may be a perfect time to start looking for pherma space again .