Option trading with DanPickUp

[DanPickUp]

Hey dan! Wassup ?

Don't go long folks.. Market will go down and down. Ultimate target 5600/5450/5200 . It may sound nasty but it will be reality . Fall is due, it will be huge!
Time period- very short (within 1-3 months frame) !!

Go long only above 5970 nifty spot.

Just shared my views.. =)

Cheers,

Hi Predictor

5970 is a very strong resistance line. I 100% agree with you about that. Four times not broken. So if it not gets broken, very high chance of a nice drop. If it will be token, then a prove from the market is needed that it will hold.

How big could the chances be that it could be broken:

Upper down trend line was broken on the 25.04.13 with nearly a perfect Marubozu candle and strong volume. Yesterdays candle was a long legged doji.

On the 11.03.13 we had in a certain way nearly the same situation, as the existing upper downtrend line also was broke with nearly a perfect Marubozu candle and then came a small long legged doji. After that market dropped strongly.

Now where do I see a different between the 25.04.13 and the 11.03.13?

Fibonacci levels. On the 11.03 Fibo was under or at 50% and in todays situation Fibo is at and over 61.8%.

If we would follow Fibo rules, then it would be like this: 50% level from the last absolute top and less, the first trend is intact and here it was the existing short term down trend.

61.8% level from the last absolute market high, and the new trend is intact. As this new short term up trend was quit strong, buyers for the moment are probably difficult to find. So it rest.

In the States all Indices are on top highs. If they will move higher, Nifty earlier or later will follow. Tomorrow we will have the new unemployment numbers, so this will affect the market short time. I do not know whats on the Indian calendar in the coming days which could have a clear impact to the market. You may check that.

As trading is not only taking calls, instead having a good strategy, the only way to take any call is to have strategies in place which can handle both market moves.

Take care and good trading / DanPickUp

# The above is in no way a go for any trade. It is only for educational and discussing purpose and who ever trades any thing on that post is on his own with the risk she/he takes.

 

[The Predictor]

Hi Predictor

5970 is a very strong resistance line. I 100% agree with you about that. Four times not broken. So if it not gets broken, very high chance of a nice drop. If it will be token, then a prove from the market is needed that it will hold.

How big could the chances be that it could be broken:

Upper down trend line was broken on the 25.04.13 with nearly a perfect Marubozu candle and strong volume. Yesterdays candle was a long legged doji.

On the 11.03.13 we had in a certain way nearly the same situation, as the existing upper downtrend line also was broke with nearly a perfect Marubozu candle and then came a small long legged doji. After that market dropped strongly.

Now where do I see a different between the 25.04.13 and the 11.03.13?

Fibonacci levels. On the 11.03 Fibo was under or at 50% and in todays situation Fibo is at and over 61.8%.

If we would follow Fibo rules, then it would be like this: 50% level from the last absolute top and less, the first trend is intact and here it was the existing short term down trend.

61.8% level from the last absolute market high, and the new trend is intact. As this new short term up trend was quit strong, buyers for the moment are probably difficult to find. So it rest.

In the States all Indices are on top highs. If they will move higher, Nifty earlier or later will follow. Tomorrow we will have the new unemployment numbers, so this will affect the market short time. I do not know whats on the Indian calendar in the coming days which could have a clear impact to the market. You may check that.

As trading is not only taking calls, instead having a good strategy, the only way to take any call is to have strategies in place which can handle both market moves.

Take care and good trading / DanPickUp

# The above is in no way a go for any trade. It is only for educational and discussing purpose and who ever trades any thing on that post is on his own with the risk she/he takes.

Ek dam jhakas... Ew,gann sab pe achi command hai, em impressed =)

 

[DanPickUp]

Ek dam jhakas... Ew,gann sab pe achi command hai, em impressed =)

@Predictor: My Hindi is not so profound to translate the whole sentence by you. Google also not can do it.

So would appreciate if some could do it.

 

[manojborle]

@Predictor: My Hindi is not so profound to translate the whole sentence by you. Google also not can do it.

So would appreciate if some could do it.

He is saying mind blowing!
You have command over Elliot Waves, Gann theory and he is impressed.

 

[DanPickUp]

He is saying mind blowing!
You have command over Elliot Waves, Gann theory and he is impressed.

@Manojborle: Thanks for the translation.

@Predictor: Thanks for the kind words. As you mentioned Gann, yes I use Gann when I look at the health of a trend. I prefer to see a 45% angel. About the waves: Did not have a look at them in the above TA, but can see now what you mean in the last down trend. Also impressive. 1. 2. 3 and then bum up. This two times in a row. Only in the last short time uptrend we do not see anything like waves, at least on the daily chart. Now lets see what the market for a way shows and we have to accept and trade that. Thanks for the chat.

Take care and good trades / DanPickUp

 

[DanPickUp]

Well, at least in the States we have a nice drop in the Indices for the moment, as ISM Manufacturing PMI data not have been as expected. But still no prove for the moment for a new down trend. Just an other prove to think about strategies with which you can play both sides. In that kind you once more can remove any TA from your screen, even TA makes fun (and I mean that for god as I in some way love TA, just try to protect my self with god strategies in the background in case I made a mistake)

Take care and good trading / DanPickUp

 

[The Predictor]

bro i need your advice on this stock. 'mcdowell'
It is runing like mad dog.
What you will advice?

 

[DanPickUp]

bro i need your advice on this stock. 'mcdowell'
It is runing like mad dog.
What you will advice?

@Predictor. I am sure you know that I do not advice to nobody when it comes to buy or sell any share or future or options. I did the TA to Nifty yesterday with out any recommendation and that should do. Thanks for your kind understanding.

Take care and have many good trades / DanPickUp

 

[The Predictor]

@Predictor. I am sure you know that I do not advice to nobody when it comes to buy or sell any share or future or options. I did the TA to Nifty yesterday with out any recommendation and that should do. Thanks for your kind understanding.

Take care and have many good trades / DanPickUp

Hmm i understand.
Just want important levels and reason if you can tell behind this unpredictable rally. Any important figure to watch out and all that.

 

[DanPickUp]

Hmm i understand.
Just want important levels and reason if you can tell behind this unpredictable rally. Any important figure to watch out and all that.

Reason why it happen. Maybe they followed the TA I made and thought: Aha, lets take it and lets move up as any way every body is bearish now.

Jokes beside: I do not have in dept all market data from your market. The only thing I did was this pure chart analyzes on the daily chart and nothing else. TA in the purest way, build up on my TA experience. Nobody can predict such rally's with 100% accuracy all the times. You not, me not, nobody. You absolutely can believe me in that. NOBODY. But we can use our knowledge and research or what ever tools we understand to make up our own personal mind about any situation. Even I would now change the thread into a TA thread, this would not change any thing.

I love TA and I analyzed thousands of charts in my live. As more as I did, as more I came away from indicators. From very complicated down to less complicated, at least for me. No secret behind that, just my experience and no advice to follow. Each persons choice and time she/he can spent into the subject of TA.

Coming to the point of important levels. First thing I will ask you: What is your trading style? How do you trade? What kind of trading plan do you follow? And so on.

You could be a pure directional trader, on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, you could be a professional hedger, you could be an option strategist, you could be a pure tape reader trader, you could be a pure gambler and speculator. Each of those traders follow different rules and has different levels in the market which are important for her/him. Most do not have a clear trading plan with entry and exit levels, but that is not my problem. I wish for you that you have one.

I belong to the hedgers and option strategist and my time frame various when I implement different ways of trading. What does it mean? I not can tell you what levels for you or others are important, as this would be like giving a sing: Aha, here it has to be. In day trading you any way will change your levels according to market moves when needed.

If you want to have any advice from me: Move on with the TA you used until now. There is may some thing you want to take from the TA I showed (include calendar) and implement it in your TA. But do never think that the decision you toke has to become real in the market. That is the trap most fall in when only believing in pure TA and indicators. I wish you that you see this trap and find for your self the solution how to handle it. By the way: If you are interested in more information about TA, read the thread from Swing King in the TA section of this forum.

Take care, many good trades / DanPickUp

Edit: I hope you are clear that I do not take any live trades in Nifty, as I not trade in India. But you know that for sure. So even the idea of giving calls about certain levels in Nifty or even explain it in any detail would not make any deeper sense to me, beside what was explained above, on a longer run. Even I now gave for the first and last time a call in an other thread about Nifty, those call was given on a very light side of live and you not have to value it in any way, as it never ever will happen again.