Patterns and Technicals

[coolboy007]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Raval, i have marked the days with 90% or above...and from your table its evident that 8 out of 9 times with 90% or above we have had good profits...and another interesting thing(this may sound absurd) but whenever we have the % level between 85 and 89 we have had a highly volatile sessions the next day..plzz find the modified xls attached..

Keeping my fingers crossed Dude i think between 85-100 % we should initiate trades , but that success rate is for LONGS na?? What about shorts , is there anything that below 40% we also profitted in shorts??

Reading ur excel have holiday frm school 2moro.

 

[coolboy007]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

What i noticed is that , we are making more on LONG side than on short trades.
Hmm pretty interesting the excel is.

kammy , for the sake of points system , should we take nifty fut opening price or price at 3 pm , as every1 will soon want to know that in 2-3 weeks backtesting how much we made in addition to the excel.
You know na , we want new examples.

This idea is not a failure at all , atleast good accuracy is there , some are there like me , when i opened my account in march , was doin blind trading , thank god the account survived

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Keeping my fingers crossed Dude i think between 85-100 % we should initiate trades , but that success rate is for LONGS na?? What about shorts , is there anything that below 40% we also profitted in shorts??

Reading ur excel have holiday frm school 2moro.

Yes CB..was only checking the above 90% and below 10% ones....i think that in both the cases if we could call them hits then its 9 out of 10 times that we are in profits the next day...slowly checking the values for different combinations...hope will post them soon..

 

[coolboy007]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Yes CB..was only checking the above 90% and below 10% ones....i think that in both the cases if we could call them hits then its 9 out of 10 times that we are in profits the next day...slowly checking the values for different combinations...hope will post them soon..

Bro , you will hav to tell us whether to take opening price of nifty or near closing. I will hav to take closing as i will sq off trades at 3pm only.

Best of luck. We are still long but DOw isnt supporting us.

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

CB...It is not the case where you square off your trades at 3 pm ONLY....See its like this...first you take a position based on the nifty at arond say 3pm....This is for the next day...so if u have a 100 points gap up, hold it until you find a sharp trend reversal...Only if you think the trend is changing square off at that point in time..once you square off..wait for the trend again at around 3 pm that day and this would be the action for the next day...

 

[coolboy007]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

CB...It is not the case where you square off your trades at 3 pm ONLY....See its like this...first you take a position based on the nifty at arond say 3pm....This is for the next day...so if u have a 100 points gap up, hold it until you find a sharp trend reversal...Only if you think the trend is changing square off at that point in time..once you square off..wait for the trend again at around 3 pm that day and this would be the action for the next day...

Kammy still online college nahin jaana kya????

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

gotta go dude...but have some work..was doin that..will be goin to sleep shortly...

 

[AW10]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

I have taken the OHLC data from the sheet provided by ravalsb's and created backtesting sheet (sharing quite a few hours of my effort here).

Here is the output for 70-30% setup.

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The system has +ive expectancy which is the very first thing we should have in any system. I have even removed top 2 best performing trades and seen that system still gives +ive result.

In layman's term, if we execute 70 trades with defined rules, then on an average we can expect to make 18 points per trade.

Limitation of this system is that I have ignored Risk mgmt rules at this stage.

By changing the values in colored cells with 70-30/ 80-20/ 90-10, you can see the change in statistical result of the strategy. Observe how number of trades, % win loss ratio, Average wins, average loss, system expectancy etc change. This gives fair idea about what to expect. I have also included a field to take care of slippage by few points. E.g. when I am placing a buy order at market open then I might not get open price..but a price which is 5 points higher then the OPEN. (I assumed that I will get worse price i.e. when buying I will get price higher then mkt price, and while selling I will price lower then mkt)

On second sheet, I have also given 1 line explanation of various output parameters. In case of doubt, please raise the point here.

Cells in blue text contains formula. This sheet can be used to testing any new system. You just need to enter the data in Entry / Stoploss/Exit columns and basic statistics will be in front of you.

(Note - if you find any error then plz let me know so that I can correct it).

Happy Backtesting and profitable trading.

 

[rkkarnani]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

I have taken the OHLC data from the sheet provided by ravalsb's and created backtesting sheet (sharing quite a few hours of my effort here).

Here is the output for 70-30% setup.

Happy Backtesting and profitable trading.

Simply STUPENDOUS effort!
Thanx.

 

[niftychance]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

By changing the values in colored cells with 70-30/ 80-20/ 90-10, you can see the change in statistical result of the strategy. Observe how number of trades, % win loss ratio, Average wins, average loss, system expectancy etc change. This gives fair idea about what to expect. I have also included a field to take care of slippage by few points. E.g. when I am placing a buy order at market open then I might not get open price..but a price which is 5 points higher then the OPEN. (I assumed that I will get worse price i.e. when buying I will get price higher then mkt price, and while selling I will price lower then mkt)

On second sheet, I have also given 1 line explanation of various output parameters. In case of doubt, please raise the point here.

Cells in blue text contains formula. This sheet can be used to testing any new system. You just need to enter the data in Entry / Stoploss/Exit columns and basic statistics will be in front of you.

(Note - if you find any error then plz let me know so that I can correct it).

Happy Backtesting and profitable trading.

Thanks for sharing the template ...

[B]Band	No of Trades	Gain/Loss Per Trade	Gross[/B]
40-60	    83		14.15			1175
30-70	    70		18.3			1280
20-80	    46		12.3			566
10-90	    17		22.7			386

Based on above I would choose a position sizing which will give more weight to 10-90 & 30-70 Bands and will not take the trades from 40-60 band ..

Thanks