Playing since 2005 lost 13+3 lakhs
- Thread starter stock72
- Start date
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Hi stock72,
Sorry about your losses and long losing streak.
You have done exactly the way the novice does. By being adamant and not willing to retrospect, all you are doing is spending more time on execution and less, if any, on learning. The greatest challenge for any trader is to survive the learning curve. Bull markets are coming and going. But you are not getting past the learning curve, because you are not giving your whole-mind to this learning. You are only letting one part of the brain do the learning and it got saturated. The other part is learning on a slowest motion. Not sure you would survive the learning curve in this life. Dont take any offense. I am saying this based on your performance. I read all the pages in this thread A->Z. Without the need to look back again, your performance distribution got imprinted in my mind.
And it looks like this:
1. When you make gains, you often make small gains.
2. When you make losses, you have more occurences of losses of magnitude much greater than you regular profits.
3. When you indeed make that rare big gain (which is characteristic of a market going in sync with our execution, nothing to do with our skills), the next thing you go broke. It is a wise idea to scale up your bets when you already have some profit. But you gotta have a limit on the scale-up, only upto that point that you will get to break-even but not to lose more than the profits.
4. You get conditioned regularly by the market (as per its whims). This one I like the most of any trader. Because this gives bonus opportunities for professional traders. Human conditioning is the most amazing way the stock market deceives almost all its participants. You used large capital when making losses. Then it crushes your ego to the point of giving up. Then you reduce your capital (Jan-11), just when a fantastic and consistently predictable strong uptrend emerged all across-the-board. The market made a bullish move? But where is the profit??? Ah.. you got it in percentage.. 350% gain. Why didn't you try with the same capital size that you did in 2011? If u just used 400k, it would've already meant 1400k profit.. Almost close to complete recovery. But na.. you got conditioned by the past losses.
5. You tried to show your power over the market. As market participants we cant control anything in the market (of significance). Rather we want to exploit from the events happening there. When you made gains consistently in January, riding the trend, you got exhausted (again conditioned from previous experiences of how long trends can run). There is no telling how long market wants to go up. Rather you fought it and reduced the gains, much faster than you made. You never fight the market, as there is nothing else in this world that can crush your ego like the stock market.
The greatest lesson all traders learn from their years/months/decades/how-much-ever of experiences is that "you make hay when sun shines." That's the holy-grail of stock trading. It is not like we can squeeze from the market at any time. Where is the margin for error? Somebody asked right in the earlier pages. We get that margin (a huge one that ensures we dont fail by a single blowup trade), by waiting and waiting for the market to blow its true winds.
If you tune your strategy in such a way, you only make gains when the market goes into a long secular bull market and make not much or tolerable losses during all other phases of the market, you will for sure make it out of the market. And even develop a passion for trading that will bless you for the rest of your life, for there is no other career more lucrative than trading stocks.
You wrote once that your past performance (that you plotted as a chart) is not for predicting future performance. You could also plot your performance as a histogram (distribution of profits and gains on a given day). This distribution too wont predict the future. But it gives a summary of your performance.
If you do plot that distribution. It should look like this:
1. More number of trades that resulted in less profits or less losses with their mean value close to zero or within -10% to +10%
2. Few trades that resulted in bigger losses (but never more than 20% loss, or a 10% limit)
3. Few trades scattered far on the right side, that range from 20% to X00% (X is an integer). These look like odd ones in the distribution. These things dont happen due to your skill or intelligence. Just pure luck. But to stretch that luck as far as it allows you to, you have to ingrain the ability to sit tight while the trend lasts. You never question the uptrend as long as it goes on without hurting you.
This is the distribution that comes out when you take the performance record of any "successful" trader who had survived that mystical learning curve.
If you want to go on an accelerated pace to get past the learning curve, you should practice at chartgame.com. This is one amazing game created for us. Best use of technology today.
I had played this many times. Sometimes got addicted to it. Whenever I make loss, I play it till I get back to profit. I even made $1Million from $10k capital in a recent game. Check this out:
chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?6dotks-1
(If you look at it closely you will see buy and hold strategy gave $43 Million, that is the margin for error. If stock itself doesnt give gains, how will I make gains consistently? So stock selection and syncing our execution phase with the bullish phases of the stock play an important role. Though it is not like we can do it straight way, but rather we try to do that way. Sometimes it gets right and sometimes wrong. But how much you make when it gets right and how much you lose when it goes wrong, is what is in your control and defines your performance record. However there is nothing that cannot happen. hence losses are always limited beyond a critical point and sometimes early on.)
It is not easy to play this game for profits. If you lose your temper, the game is gone. Once I played like that and took $10k to $99! Then made the commitment to not start a new game, but play the same game and recover the loss. From $99 to $11387.
chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?qwekfw
I request you to not burn the money in the name of recovery, or because you can afford to lose a lot. (Wish somebody gave me money and told me to trade). Use the power of technology and see where you are ultimately headed to. It can take a very long time before your losses will be much larger and you learn the same thing that you could quickly learn playing on this chartgame. The game is easy to play, with self-explanatory setup. Click on skip to next chart, when you want to change the chart. Though it is not fully mimicking real trading, when you look at how far it lets you test your strategies, it is good enough. Try all ideas, gambling or whatever you ever thought of and see what it leads.
My own experience tells that for short term trading, there is no strategy that works other than accepting that all moves are random and try to control your distribution of losses to be below a max. limit but always try to keep losses close to zero. The profits and losses are thrown randomly by the market. We only limit losses, by stop loss and we limit number of stop loss executions by limiting our entries to only those stocks that are above all moving averages. We don't control profits. As long as stocks are safely up away from moving averages we keep letting them run.
And for long term trading, I apply position sizing along the direction of the trend. Here too stop loss applies. It varies and gets tighter as the trend continues. Well, this wont make profits most of the time. But also not much losses. It will help me survive (which is the name of the game), the market cycle after cycle, till the time a long persistent bull market occurs. Then the position sizing strategy ensures that the profits explode with the persistence of the trend. One such lifetime phenomenon is what a long term trader looks for. All other strategies sometimes make profits and sometimes give it back to the market in varying degrees.
The position scaling, how much you make when you are right.. these things are taught by turn-of-the-century trader Jesse Livermore in the ever-popular stock trading book "The Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator". Somebody even quoted this book in one of the replies to this thread. Where is the wisdom? It is thrown to the wind. Sure it is different to learn from experience and from reading others' experiences. But what is it to learn from both together? That is what is called "accelerated pace of learning". Which is what you desparately lack for a long long time. And this can go on for even more long time.
If we didn't print books (Gutenburg), and didn't bank on the past learning already learned by people from the past, we as a civilization wouldn't have advanced upto this point at such a rapid pace. You have entire history to prove that point. Put your money to good use by buying and reading books. The book I mentioned in above para, is actually free. No need to burn or pay. It is many decades old book. The funda still remains the same. Human conditioning is the simplest deception stock market uses to keep all traders addicted so they can pay for the stock market to run its game.
Sorry about your losses and long losing streak.
You have done exactly the way the novice does. By being adamant and not willing to retrospect, all you are doing is spending more time on execution and less, if any, on learning. The greatest challenge for any trader is to survive the learning curve. Bull markets are coming and going. But you are not getting past the learning curve, because you are not giving your whole-mind to this learning. You are only letting one part of the brain do the learning and it got saturated. The other part is learning on a slowest motion. Not sure you would survive the learning curve in this life. Dont take any offense. I am saying this based on your performance. I read all the pages in this thread A->Z. Without the need to look back again, your performance distribution got imprinted in my mind.
And it looks like this:
1. When you make gains, you often make small gains.
2. When you make losses, you have more occurences of losses of magnitude much greater than you regular profits.
3. When you indeed make that rare big gain (which is characteristic of a market going in sync with our execution, nothing to do with our skills), the next thing you go broke. It is a wise idea to scale up your bets when you already have some profit. But you gotta have a limit on the scale-up, only upto that point that you will get to break-even but not to lose more than the profits.
4. You get conditioned regularly by the market (as per its whims). This one I like the most of any trader. Because this gives bonus opportunities for professional traders. Human conditioning is the most amazing way the stock market deceives almost all its participants. You used large capital when making losses. Then it crushes your ego to the point of giving up. Then you reduce your capital (Jan-11), just when a fantastic and consistently predictable strong uptrend emerged all across-the-board. The market made a bullish move? But where is the profit??? Ah.. you got it in percentage.. 350% gain. Why didn't you try with the same capital size that you did in 2011? If u just used 400k, it would've already meant 1400k profit.. Almost close to complete recovery. But na.. you got conditioned by the past losses.
5. You tried to show your power over the market. As market participants we cant control anything in the market (of significance). Rather we want to exploit from the events happening there. When you made gains consistently in January, riding the trend, you got exhausted (again conditioned from previous experiences of how long trends can run). There is no telling how long market wants to go up. Rather you fought it and reduced the gains, much faster than you made. You never fight the market, as there is nothing else in this world that can crush your ego like the stock market.
The greatest lesson all traders learn from their years/months/decades/how-much-ever of experiences is that "you make hay when sun shines." That's the holy-grail of stock trading. It is not like we can squeeze from the market at any time. Where is the margin for error? Somebody asked right in the earlier pages. We get that margin (a huge one that ensures we dont fail by a single blowup trade), by waiting and waiting for the market to blow its true winds.
If you tune your strategy in such a way, you only make gains when the market goes into a long secular bull market and make not much or tolerable losses during all other phases of the market, you will for sure make it out of the market. And even develop a passion for trading that will bless you for the rest of your life, for there is no other career more lucrative than trading stocks.
You wrote once that your past performance (that you plotted as a chart) is not for predicting future performance. You could also plot your performance as a histogram (distribution of profits and gains on a given day). This distribution too wont predict the future. But it gives a summary of your performance.
If you do plot that distribution. It should look like this:
1. More number of trades that resulted in less profits or less losses with their mean value close to zero or within -10% to +10%
2. Few trades that resulted in bigger losses (but never more than 20% loss, or a 10% limit)
3. Few trades scattered far on the right side, that range from 20% to X00% (X is an integer). These look like odd ones in the distribution. These things dont happen due to your skill or intelligence. Just pure luck. But to stretch that luck as far as it allows you to, you have to ingrain the ability to sit tight while the trend lasts. You never question the uptrend as long as it goes on without hurting you.
This is the distribution that comes out when you take the performance record of any "successful" trader who had survived that mystical learning curve.
If you want to go on an accelerated pace to get past the learning curve, you should practice at chartgame.com. This is one amazing game created for us. Best use of technology today.
I had played this many times. Sometimes got addicted to it. Whenever I make loss, I play it till I get back to profit. I even made $1Million from $10k capital in a recent game. Check this out:
chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?6dotks-1
(If you look at it closely you will see buy and hold strategy gave $43 Million, that is the margin for error. If stock itself doesnt give gains, how will I make gains consistently? So stock selection and syncing our execution phase with the bullish phases of the stock play an important role. Though it is not like we can do it straight way, but rather we try to do that way. Sometimes it gets right and sometimes wrong. But how much you make when it gets right and how much you lose when it goes wrong, is what is in your control and defines your performance record. However there is nothing that cannot happen. hence losses are always limited beyond a critical point and sometimes early on.)
It is not easy to play this game for profits. If you lose your temper, the game is gone. Once I played like that and took $10k to $99! Then made the commitment to not start a new game, but play the same game and recover the loss. From $99 to $11387.
chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?qwekfw
I request you to not burn the money in the name of recovery, or because you can afford to lose a lot. (Wish somebody gave me money and told me to trade). Use the power of technology and see where you are ultimately headed to. It can take a very long time before your losses will be much larger and you learn the same thing that you could quickly learn playing on this chartgame. The game is easy to play, with self-explanatory setup. Click on skip to next chart, when you want to change the chart. Though it is not fully mimicking real trading, when you look at how far it lets you test your strategies, it is good enough. Try all ideas, gambling or whatever you ever thought of and see what it leads.
My own experience tells that for short term trading, there is no strategy that works other than accepting that all moves are random and try to control your distribution of losses to be below a max. limit but always try to keep losses close to zero. The profits and losses are thrown randomly by the market. We only limit losses, by stop loss and we limit number of stop loss executions by limiting our entries to only those stocks that are above all moving averages. We don't control profits. As long as stocks are safely up away from moving averages we keep letting them run.
And for long term trading, I apply position sizing along the direction of the trend. Here too stop loss applies. It varies and gets tighter as the trend continues. Well, this wont make profits most of the time. But also not much losses. It will help me survive (which is the name of the game), the market cycle after cycle, till the time a long persistent bull market occurs. Then the position sizing strategy ensures that the profits explode with the persistence of the trend. One such lifetime phenomenon is what a long term trader looks for. All other strategies sometimes make profits and sometimes give it back to the market in varying degrees.
The position scaling, how much you make when you are right.. these things are taught by turn-of-the-century trader Jesse Livermore in the ever-popular stock trading book "The Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator". Somebody even quoted this book in one of the replies to this thread. Where is the wisdom? It is thrown to the wind. Sure it is different to learn from experience and from reading others' experiences. But what is it to learn from both together? That is what is called "accelerated pace of learning". Which is what you desparately lack for a long long time. And this can go on for even more long time.
If we didn't print books (Gutenburg), and didn't bank on the past learning already learned by people from the past, we as a civilization wouldn't have advanced upto this point at such a rapid pace. You have entire history to prove that point. Put your money to good use by buying and reading books. The book I mentioned in above para, is actually free. No need to burn or pay. It is many decades old book. The funda still remains the same. Human conditioning is the simplest deception stock market uses to keep all traders addicted so they can pay for the stock market to run its game.
Last edited:
Boss,
great post and full of useful hint to stream line any individual particullary me. will go through some more times and share my understanding in the next post.
on a quick look u r correct in may places like booking small profit and lossing large losses , definitely lack in learning and adamant in my beliefs,understanding .
regaring the conditioning of human mind and rapid pace how human race developed so fast is some thing subjective which I still need to understand fully , as u know in past 2000 years we saw many like budhha , jesus, mohamed , gandhi , hilter and all conditioned human mind by various means and religions and to me the very same conditioning is the cause for many problem still and the very orginal problem of getting out of mistery still not acheived.
so , some times, it may not be necessary to follow what taught so far correct or will work.
I need to share much more things to u and will do so in next post....
regards
stock72
great post and full of useful hint to stream line any individual particullary me. will go through some more times and share my understanding in the next post.
on a quick look u r correct in may places like booking small profit and lossing large losses , definitely lack in learning and adamant in my beliefs,understanding .
regaring the conditioning of human mind and rapid pace how human race developed so fast is some thing subjective which I still need to understand fully , as u know in past 2000 years we saw many like budhha , jesus, mohamed , gandhi , hilter and all conditioned human mind by various means and religions and to me the very same conditioning is the cause for many problem still and the very orginal problem of getting out of mistery still not acheived.
so , some times, it may not be necessary to follow what taught so far correct or will work.
I need to share much more things to u and will do so in next post....
regards
stock72
u got somany advices .. noW give me my opinion.
1. no funda-mentals in the market.. all is fake
2. u invest only 'A' Group shares only..
3. dont play with money everyday.. u buy shares only twiCe in a year when
the news papers headings read SENSEX TANKED.. BLOOD BATH IN DALAL STREET ETC.
then u buy.. reliance, bhel, l&t , ongc, sail..(now right time to buy sail @75), tatasteel
dabur,jswsteel, polaris,sterlite,hindalco,hindzinc,cromptongreaves etc. according to your well and check their graph.. and see the bottom (yearly) and buy near that price
then again when watch the news paper it shows several times in a year.. tht maket croos bse 18000 then sell your shares.. u will not be a losser.. ( never look at your shares every day.. it makes to temptations to sell or buy)
4. never average a share .
5. FMCG,PHARMA SHARES ARE ALWAYS KEEPING THERE HEAD ABOVE.. SO GO FOR IT
1. no funda-mentals in the market.. all is fake
2. u invest only 'A' Group shares only..
3. dont play with money everyday.. u buy shares only twiCe in a year when
the news papers headings read SENSEX TANKED.. BLOOD BATH IN DALAL STREET ETC.
then u buy.. reliance, bhel, l&t , ongc, sail..(now right time to buy sail @75), tatasteel
dabur,jswsteel, polaris,sterlite,hindalco,hindzinc,cromptongreaves etc. according to your well and check their graph.. and see the bottom (yearly) and buy near that price
then again when watch the news paper it shows several times in a year.. tht maket croos bse 18000 then sell your shares.. u will not be a losser.. ( never look at your shares every day.. it makes to temptations to sell or buy)
4. never average a share .
5. FMCG,PHARMA SHARES ARE ALWAYS KEEPING THERE HEAD ABOVE.. SO GO FOR IT
Read ur reply one more time this morning and have no words to thank you. Seems you in fact spent good amount of time and thought process to filter out all anomalies in my behavior in stock market which I doubt whether I did so far, as precisely as u did. Thanks from the heart.
You are absolutely correct, so far I learned Nothing (a very big zero) from any one, any book regarding market. Why i like this? A really million dollar question which I need to go through myself and try to find out.
Your whole reply made me to question myself about my sanity. Really I am wondering whether I am ok in my thoughts and conscious.
On the other hand some what managed to work in a company and able to earn around 400k a month.
frankly speaking, one of my friend just blinking for a year about an offer to buy a piece of land in a location and he disclosed the details to me which the next second I understood its value and forced him to buy and me too bought a portion and now the investment turned from 12L to 75L with in a 1 1/2 year.
Found some other locations in my town and start accumulating lands and when I disclose the logic behind this new area to my friends, so far no one refuse to get involved. In fact enjoying the premium they offering.
when I taught myself and understood how far religions are false and harm to human and have nothing to do with God and go on search knowledge in those line wondered Einstien , JKrishnamurthi seems have same thought process.....
Now again all these, questioning my sanity!!!!
Let us close this Pandora box now and get in to picture....
The very beginning of trading at 2005 I dont know a feature called stop lost exit!!!!! ..
When I came to know stop loss after two years by that time I lost almost 6 to 7L.
So, just started and ran along the market so far, learned and survived all shocks market gave to me. Since market pushed and hurt me to extreme in the past I am sure it cant hurt me more than that, in future.
After long time I convinced my self that a system is a must to win in the market and further the system need to be followed with absolute discipline.
Then designed many systems on my own in the past three years. Some time the system itself wrong which I came to know when market entered in different phase and many times failed due to lack discipline.
For past there month following a system and decided to loss the small finger if violate discipline rules. And subsequently invest 80 k and so far it is 86k.
Back tested the current system for past five years. With an initial capital on 1L keeping the capital as 1L for every year it gives 14L for past five years.
Minimum double in any given year. If no violation of discipline, then margin of error is zero.
Let me work on this upto end of this year and let us analysis.
Warm regards
Stock72
Note : will go through chat game and play and share the performance .
You are absolutely correct, so far I learned Nothing (a very big zero) from any one, any book regarding market. Why i like this? A really million dollar question which I need to go through myself and try to find out.
Your whole reply made me to question myself about my sanity. Really I am wondering whether I am ok in my thoughts and conscious.
On the other hand some what managed to work in a company and able to earn around 400k a month.
frankly speaking, one of my friend just blinking for a year about an offer to buy a piece of land in a location and he disclosed the details to me which the next second I understood its value and forced him to buy and me too bought a portion and now the investment turned from 12L to 75L with in a 1 1/2 year.
Found some other locations in my town and start accumulating lands and when I disclose the logic behind this new area to my friends, so far no one refuse to get involved. In fact enjoying the premium they offering.
when I taught myself and understood how far religions are false and harm to human and have nothing to do with God and go on search knowledge in those line wondered Einstien , JKrishnamurthi seems have same thought process.....
Now again all these, questioning my sanity!!!!
Let us close this Pandora box now and get in to picture....
The very beginning of trading at 2005 I dont know a feature called stop lost exit!!!!! ..
When I came to know stop loss after two years by that time I lost almost 6 to 7L.
So, just started and ran along the market so far, learned and survived all shocks market gave to me. Since market pushed and hurt me to extreme in the past I am sure it cant hurt me more than that, in future.
After long time I convinced my self that a system is a must to win in the market and further the system need to be followed with absolute discipline.
Then designed many systems on my own in the past three years. Some time the system itself wrong which I came to know when market entered in different phase and many times failed due to lack discipline.
For past there month following a system and decided to loss the small finger if violate discipline rules. And subsequently invest 80 k and so far it is 86k.
Back tested the current system for past five years. With an initial capital on 1L keeping the capital as 1L for every year it gives 14L for past five years.
Minimum double in any given year. If no violation of discipline, then margin of error is zero.
Let me work on this upto end of this year and let us analysis.
Warm regards
Stock72
Note : will go through chat game and play and share the performance .
Last edited:
Dear Stock72,
I started reading this thread yesterday and finished today.
Your story is strange but normal story has no chance of survival.
We are same in loosing streak(I lost much less compared to u).
But one thing is sure and that is the self realization and learning started for you (I still lack this thing).
The time will come as stated by SG Saab that u will rock in this trading(U call it gambling
).
Best wishes to u dear.
HS
I started reading this thread yesterday and finished today.
Your story is strange but normal story has no chance of survival.
We are same in loosing streak(I lost much less compared to u).
But one thing is sure and that is the self realization and learning started for you (I still lack this thing).
The time will come as stated by SG Saab that u will rock in this trading(U call it gambling
).Best wishes to u dear.
HS
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