price action trading

saakk

Well-Known Member
WORKING STRUCTURE :-

Trading through a naked chart is a simplest of approach but unless a price is put into a workable structure at least for a beginner traders it will be far more difficult if not outright impossible to understand what prices are doing, why and were price has taken support and facing resistance and what are the probabilities of respecting that particular support and resistance in future, once structure is defined trader know what to expect though there is no certainty only probability. "Alan Greenspan" once said "I am happy that i am right 70% of the time", the man who is at zenith, make the rules and runs the game stating that he happy to be right 70% of the time then there is something wrong with a trader who is not happy after making 10% return per month on its capital. Al brooks says in any given trade there is 60% to 40% chance of success, If i take a long max probability of winning is 60% and minimum is 40% remaining probability goes to trader who has sold me the contract, When trader realize that nothing is 100% in trading he is automatically force to follow a MONEY MANAGEMENT because now he knows that the trader who took his opposite trade also have a probability to win. I have cut down that probability even more to 55% to 45% :)
 

augubhai

Well-Known Member
WORKING STRUCTURE :-

Trading through a naked chart is a simplest of approach but unless a price is put into a workable structure at least for a beginner traders it will be far more difficult if not outright impossible to understand what prices are doing, why and were price has taken support and facing resistance and what are the probabilities of respecting that particular support and resistance in future, once structure is defined trader know what to expect though there is no certainty only probability. "Alan Greenspan" once said "I am happy that i am right 70% of the time", the man who is at zenith, make the rules and runs the game stating that he happy to be right 70% of the time then there is something wrong with a trader who is not happy after making 10% return per month on its capital. Al brooks says in any given trade there is 60% to 40% chance of success, If i take a long max probability of winning is 60% and minimum is 40% remaining probability goes to trader who has sold me the contract, When trader realize that nothing is 100% in trading he is automatically force to follow a MONEY MANAGEMENT because now he knows that the trader who took his opposite trade also have a probability to win. I have cut down that probability even more to 55% to 45% :)
How do you define success?

If u are successful 55%-45% of the time - to be profitable, you need to be more successful when you are successful, than you are unsuccessful when you are unsuccessful... so, I am assuming that u take trades with a high reward:risk ratio. How do you filter out trades with low R:R ratio?
 

saakk

Well-Known Member
How do you define success?

If u are successful 55%-45% of the time - to be profitable, you need to be more successful when you are successful, than you are unsuccessful when you are unsuccessful... so, I am assuming that u take trades with a high reward:risk ratio. How do you filter out trades with low R:R ratio?
Dear most augubhai,
That's were Money and Trade management comes into play, no matter how much experience you have losses are inevitable and they will happen. There are days when i take 4 trades and 3 of them give me loss even when they were high probability trade, wrong 75% till now but that last trade give me back my money plus some more to spare (Trading TF 5min), . Now amplify the TF to day or week, a intra-month trader takes 4 trades in a month wrong on 2, break-even on 1, profitable on 1 which help him get back on track. GEORGE SOROS said "It doesn't matter how many times you are right and wrong, what matters is how much money you make when you are right and how much you loose when you are wrong". The beauty of market is, At the top were everyone is bullish and every one is expecting price to go up further but when it fails even bulls turned into bears. That's why we talk in probabilities because even a bullish market can fall and bearish market can go through the sky.


i hope this what you meant.
 

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