Priyanvada's chit chat home ...

[TFL]

Hai
i am new to this forum can u help in this in regard

Welcome pcsv-prasad.
What help you are looking for?

TFL,

 

[priyanvada]

Today I wanna put some in my diary...

I will go back to thursday when I went for taking a sharekhan Trade Tiger demo! I thought I would get that in Sharekhans Office ... but instead the agent took me to the agents den!! which was a 3 BHK flat they have probly rented! ... No board outside since it is in a society! ... So demo was a good one ... a great one ... because first time I got to see the face of futures and options!

The OPTION part of the share market has really made me crazy ... because this is such a beautiful thing! As far as I know till now (my understaning which syat be right syat be wrong...so following what I m goona jot down are not tested for correctness!)...

1. Option is/can be a lottery ... In my opinion, the "timing" to buy it and sell it probably plays most important Role in profit if you use it for trading... I call it a lottery because if you lose in it in the end you lose only premium(=price of the option lot!) ... and nothing more!...but in case you win there seems no end how much you win... It is syat bad than lottery in terms of RISK to REWARD ration ... it is syat better than lottery becuase you can have some control over Risk ... If things seem going against your expectation you may just square it off and limit the loss of primium to some extent ... It is syat better than lottery because you can see you are winning or losing ... and you have right to quit the game at what ever time you want!!... the discover of this option is in my view worthy of a Nobel Price!!!

2. Option is/can be an insurance: - If I bought 50 Qty. of Jindal stocks + I bought 1 lot of PUT of Jindal say till OCT 09 with strike price equal to my stoploss price, I can (probably) go for an hibernation for three months! ...becuase in my watch/non watch from market or Jindal stock price, the price is allowed to do drop down whatever it wants and rise up whatever it wants ... In case it drops drastically and does not show any sign of recovery to my buy price then I always have the PUT option as my ACE at such situation...this PUT gives me right to sell that stock to the option writer at a fixed price in the OPTION which is now faaar up than current market price!... So my idea is that long term investor if feeling unsecure about any stock/investment should always accept the min loss he is ready to bear in given amount of time by buying a PUT option of the security he is holding...
I hope my idea is correct here...

3. Life is full options: - This seems tobe another big view @ options ... life is full of options and no options ...
For example...My mama and Papa quarrel sometimes and don't talk at all for 3-4 days ... then the option expires with some typical "strike" ,...and they start talking again!
Another Example is between girls and boys ... I can/should be honest here ... Just see by natural law boys get attracted to girls and and we girls are attracted to boys ... nothing wrong with it ... but we girl are clever ... we don't show up this attraction ... We just hide it for our advantage ... and USE boys as an option to a slave ... say in 10th or 12th standard suddenly a girl becomes very friendly with a boy ... The boy does everything for her ... just literally everything and from getting notes and books to submitting forms and the list is endless ... and in the end after the exams "the option expires"!! ... boy scores very less or simply fails and with good marks in her bag girl moves ahead and few days latter boys know the FACT in a shock that it was an option and not an delivery ! ... which has expired now ... I don't like this attitude in use and i don't/NEVER follow this too but since the topic is "options" I am putting here what I see my friends doing!!

... Anyway back to trade tiger demo now ... This is my behaviour model about anything ... Until I have no clue about that thing I am always having a BIG scare n repultion and anger over that thing ... the moment I know it everything turns upside down!!...So same thing has happened with F&O...till I had no clue about F&O I really hated it ...was saying why peoples have complicated the stock market unnecessarily... as the agent gave me a good demo and told me little about F&O I just got ecstatic!!!... The F&O is WITHIN my TERRETORY OF UNDERSTANDING...So this such a great event happened at that time!...I have asked so many silly questions here just out of that attraction arised after the end of so many years of repultion... and even the Big BULL TFL also got "tired" answering them!!!...I don't have word for him .. I will NEVER have words for TFL ... such an "unconditional helper"!...In todays world personalities like TFL are non existant!! Really!!

So anyway back to trade tiger demo again ...then another client entered after in the room my demo ... he was a young dude but so scared about everything there... I sat aside ... Just wanted to listen all the things again for my satisfaction! ... So the agent gave him same demo ... just copy and paste what he had said to me like a ROBOT ... but alas in the end that young dude was more puzzeled about the things on screen ... the way I grasped the things with interest, the agent was sure the young dude would ... but it was opposite ... The client asked what those candlestick mean ... to my amazement the agent also knew only about the colors green and red and nothing more ... So they were watching each others face for few second with BIG question about the other person in front!! ...

So I was so much bubbling with energy ... I just couldn't stop my self and jumped in...I started telling about candlesticks, start and close and high and low and upper shadow and lower shadow and its patterns like hammer , doji and its origin from Japan rise exchange ... Ohh my god!! ... they both were listening in a complete spell-bound to me!! ... haha ... Sharekhan agent latter said latter why do you needed a demo from my side?! ... were you testing me ?!... haaa... The client dude said 'How you come to know this?' ... from how many years you r in this stocks? I said a month! .. He was shocked!! ... ... He said are doing MBA in finance or what? ... i said "no ... no way !!!!" ... this conversation was so flatterning!... He asked me to tell him a few stocks he can take delivery for few months ... I said "This is syat bad chice asking me, I have already made 7000Rs. Net loss in a month, so you should ask anyone but me in the whole world!!"...
...
About trading with sharekhan:- this is the last thing I wanna put here ... A week has passed since I have started trading with sharekhan ... the things I knew that ...
1. I have invested 3000Rs. capital the I get 3000x4=12000 margine for day trading

2. while da trading if some positions goes too badly against me then if I have not put a stoploss then I can hold that position for next four days excluding trading day!...only brokerage will be charged as that off a delivery trade!

3.If I took holding of 12000/- Rs. worth stock from monday to friday and since it is 5th day i have to square off my position and then after squaring off I get RIGHT to play with 12000/- margine again on friday itself .... only thing is I can not withdraw the cash i received om friday ... i need to wait for 3 more days for cash withdrawal...

.... But till now I have observed that statement No. 3 is NOT completely true which my sells agent had told me about holding is not happening to be true and i have to syat wait three more days to get my playing magine back!...anybody related to sharekhan, please clarify me over this....

So this much looks sufficient today...

regards,
priyanvada

 

[priyanvada]

I feel very skeptical about theories/strategies peoples share here ... syat i am wrong ... but I can not believe blindly ... just for example say 2652 theory shared by some good person ... he may be having good motive behind this but i don't believe his theory ... my mind asks...

A. If many people start making use of single method to make money in stocks, this behaviour is against that method and method will cease to make money ... since everyone/manyone will be single opinion at a given stock time and price state ... so manyone will take same decision ... this is BAD for the method because unless there is conflict in peoples opinion price won't move up and down ... So this is the first questionmark my mind puts while using a PUBLICISED STRATEGY ...

B. I am not agains that person but when someone asks from where he has got the constants,,, and he says that from his STUDY he has got it and he can not give more reasoning than that ... so why he doesn't (want to) give any justification for that??

C. A person may use this for his advantage, by guiding a MASS of peoples to take uniform decisions in a SPECIFIC SET of stocks..

c1) Just see he says use stocks having MAX TRADING VOLUME... so here MASS OF TRADERS IF LIMITED/CONFINED to SET of SPECIFIC stocks to trade on a given day

c2) for a given stock from such a SPECIFIC max volume stocks say his theory gives buy at above 100Rs. and sell at 100.5Rs. ...So if he decides to use this for his advantade...since there are @78000 forum members are here and only few are masters... the forbidden BETTER theory which ONLY HE might be using might have been giving him a Buy call at say 99.5Rs. and Sell at 100.25Rs. ,,, So by doing this he is ENSURING that when he buys a stock at 99.5, the further 0.5% will happen on account of his better theory and further price move is got by GUIDED MASS from here or anyone has got indirectly hands on this theory!...

So this way the PUBLISHER OF THEORY IS OUT WITH 0.75% SURE GAIN and mass remains waiting with HOPE for 0.5% RISE...

... So how can I blindly use this/ANY PUBLICISED theory ... i won't!

regards,
priyanvada

 

[prasadam]

hello priyanvada.

I think you still remember RSI's suggestion. a small guideline in that direction.

"What is the best way to learn how to read price action? It is to print
out charts and then look for every profitable trade. If you are a scalper
looking for 50 cents in AAPL or $2 in GOOG on the 5-minute chart, then
find every move during the day where that amount of profit was possible.
After several weeks, you will begin to see a few patterns that would allow
you to make those trades while risking about the same amount. If the risk
is the same as the reward, you have to win much more than 50 percent
of the time to make the trade worthwhile. However, lots of patterns have
a 70 percent or better success rate, and many trades allow you to move
up your stop from below the signal bar extreme to below the entry bar extreme while waiting for your profit target to be reached, reducing your risk.
Also, you should be trying to enter trades that have a good chance of running
well past your profit target, and you should therefore only take partial
profits. In fact, initially you should only focus on those entries. Move your
stop to breakeven and then let the remainder run. You will likely have at
least a couple of trades each week that run .to four or more times your
initial target before setting up a reverse entry pattern. ".

still if you want to go for some strategy, please don't go for Monte Carlo trades.

cheers.

prasad.

p.s.: when in doubt, just Google.

 

[TFL]

Priyu,

Sorry I couldn;t attend the remaining questions due to illness. Also I like to put some comment about your the above posts, not read completely...not able to hang up here now, will do later.

See you.
TFL,

 

[prasadam]

this in in reply to your post.

"Should you be concerned that making the information in this book
available will create lots of great price action traders, all doing the same
thing at the same time, thereby removing the late entrants needed to
drive the market to your price target? No, because the institutions control
the market, and they already have the smartest traders in the world, and
those traders already know everything in this book, at least intuitively. The
reason that the patterns that we all see unfold as they do is because that
is the appearance that occurs in an efficient market with countless traders
placing orders for thousands of different reasons, but with the controlling
volume being traded based on sound logic. That is just what it looks like,
and it has forever. The same patterns unfold on all time frames in all markets
around the world and it would simply be impossible for all of it to be
manipulated instantaneously on so many different levels.

If everyone suddenly became a price action scalper, the smaller patterns
might change a little for a while, but over time, the efficient market
will win out, and the votes by all traders will get distilled into standard price
action patterns because that is the inescapable result of countless people
behaving logically. Also, the reality is that it is very difficult to trade, and
although basing trades on price action is a sound approach, it is still very
difficult to do real time. There just won't be enough traders doing it well
enough, all at the same time, to have any significant influence over time
on the patterns. Just look at Edwards and Magee. The best traders in the
world have been using those ideas for decades and they continue to work,
again for the same reason . . . charts look they way they do because that is
the unchangeable fingerprint of an efficient market filled with a huge number
of smart people using a huge number of approaches and time frames,
all trying to make the most money that they can."

 

[priyanvada]

@ Prasadam,.....

I am missing the THANKS button ... So THANKS A lot for replying me ... your first post is very worthwhile ... So I am going to read it again n again 10 times because I just liked thatso much neat n clear ...

...Your second post is making my mind dizzy ... which thinker is behind that??? ... so anyway it concludes in my words as "there is no escape for market controlling forces deceive everone's theory simulataneously ... So many many theories WILL exist to work with success for a long long time!"

Thanks again for your kind reply,

Good night n regards
priyanvada

PS:- My watchlist for comming week is attached

... i am really curious what happens with them in 1st week of Aug 2009!

 

[priyanvada]

Priyu,

Sorry I couldn;t attend the remaining questions due to illness. Also I like to put some comment about your the above posts, not read completely...not able to hang up here now, will do later.

See you.
TFL,

Ohhhhhhh TFL,

This is so SADDDDDDD to hear that you are ill ... How can you fell ill so easily ... You know now a days whenever I open the traderji forum my mind keeps on chanting the same mantra ...

TFL is the BEST AFL ... TFL is the BEST AFL ... TFL is the BEST AFL ...

Really!! You are the BEST AFL written by GOD and how can you get ill so easily???????

Common get well ASAP ... So much job is to be DONE from your side ... So kick out that illness ... n get TALL and STRONG ...

don't you feel shame to fell ill so easily ... hmmm????

bytheway I forgot one thing to ask to you,

what has happened to you? FEVER..Cought...diariya ...or else what?
Just exercise the option given by doctor and you WILL be OKay ... You MUST be okayyyy... I am there for you ...

good night n have perfect sleep n get well n regards,
priyanvada

 

[priyanvada]

Today/comming 3-4days, it seems to be a BREAKOUT day/s for Hindalco ... Price and volume action for a year back from today is really WORTH to observe ...

.... SMART MONEY has collected the stocks in the ZONE where they wanted and it is syat the time for a breakout from 102Rs. to above ...

Just see below...

So lets see what happens in coming months !

regards,
priyanvada

 

[priyanvada]

God.....Today is such a brightest day of my trading life ...

448.75 Rs. Profit ... Hindalco ki Jai ho

It really really feels so great when you earn money!
Such a broad (n rare!) smile on my face ...

regards,
priyanvada