PUT and CALL options

[columbus]

what help one can get in trading decisions by this intersection range? As this range is changing daily.

It gives a rough calculation about expiry value ,it keeps on modifying.
Range hardly changes, in this expiry it gave maximum values of 4700~5200
so far.

 

[niludeepak]

columbus sir, my 2 other ques r :

i assume u start calling the zones expiry zones after a particular date or so, pl. tell.

also, i think u have chalked out 4800 is becoz there is no IMP VOL figure there am i right, or there is something else u see?( i got the answer to this ques - prices get to less than 10 , PENNY)

but pl tell me about when to call them expiry zones or it isnt significant

 

[columbus]

JUN series DAY-14 Nifty=5121 (17)

In this JUN series we have 4 DOWN and 10 UP days as follows.
DUUUUUDUUDUDUU

Even 4900 is taken out from Expiry Zone.It stands at 5000~5200.

 

[columbus]

columbus , my 2 other ques r :

i assume u start calling the zones expiry zones after a particular date or so, pl. tell.

also, i think u have chalked out 4800 is becoz there is no IMP VOL figure there am i right, or there is something else u see?( i got the answer to this ques - prices get to less than 10 , PENNY)

but pl tell me about when to call them expiry zones or it isnt significant

i assume u start calling the zones expiry zones after a particular date or so, pl. tell.

The Expected Zone is cross-section of PUT & CALL windows.
In the initial days ,the font in this zone is BLACK.
But around the 10th day or so (It varies from series to series)
strikes in this zone start fading out (turning to white font).
Then it is called Expiry Zone.
This happened after 9 days in MAY series and after 12 days in
June series.

i think u have chalked out 4800 is becoz there is no IMP VOL figure there am i right, or there is something else u see?

NO.But this was not so in previous series.
So far I have not studied the impact of Implied Volatility on
options.

 

[columbus]

JUN series DAY-15 Nifty=5165 (44)

In this JUN series we have 4 DOWN and 11 UP days as follows.
DUUUUUDUUDUDUUU

Even 5000 is taken out from Expiry Zone.It stands at 5100~5200.
It looks as if 5300 is likely to be active as its PRICE is close to Rs.10 (8.40),
if same momentum is seen again.

PCR:

It is the ratio of the volume of put options traded
to the volume of call options traded.Some believe
that a high PCR means more number of Puts have
been written and markets should go ahead.Others
believe in entire opposite view.

 

[columbus]

JUN series DAY-16 Nifty=5146 (-19)

In this JUN series we have 5 DOWN and 11 UP days as follows.
DUUUUUDUUDUDUUUD

Now Expiry Zone continues to be (5100~5200).

Things like Open Interest or PCR have no relevance in Expiry Period due to
Time Decaying.Another thing, how can you expect Bank Nifty ended in
positive ,when Rupee breached 57 level.

THETA (time decay):
The option's theta is a measurement of the option's time decay.
The theta measures the rate at which options lose their value,
specifically the time value, as the expiration date draws nearer.
Generally expressed as a negative number, the theta of an option
reflects the amount by which the option's value will decrease every day.
(courtesy:theoptionguide.com)

 

[timepass]

Re: JUN series DAY-16 Nifty=5146 (-19)

Now Expiry Zone continues to be (5100~5200).

It's too narrow a range. It has held for 3 sessions now. Something has to give way in the 4 sessions to the expiry.

 

[columbus]

Re: JUN series DAY-16 Nifty=5146 (-19)

It's too narrow a range. It has held for 3 sessions now. Something has to give way in the 4 sessions to the expiry.

The way Rupee is performing ,I feel 5200 strike is ruled out as we have just
4 sessions for the end of the series.

5100~5200 is not NARROW.It comprises of 5100 strike and 5200 strike.In a
way ,it is 200 points width.(Anyway Nifty closed at 5146)

Last 5 days action:
18-Jun  4800~5200..............Nifty closed at 5064
19-Jun	4900~5200..............Nifty closed at 5104
20-Jun	5000~5200..............Nifty closed at 5121
21-Jun	5100~5200..............Nifty closed at 5165
22-Jun	5100~5200..............Nifty closed at 5146

Have a look at 5300 Strike also.Yesterday it closed to 8.40, but today it closed at 3.65.It shows the effect
of Theta.Personally I feel a maximum of 5200.Well the usual disclosure is valid.(This is my interpretation,
it may go wrong.)

 

[columbus]

......................Nifty in this Series....................

 

[columbus]

That the problem with OPTIONS in expiry.Time decaying.Both CALLS and PUTS
lost value.You expect one to gain and other to lose.

[Snap shot of old data.(21st JUNE)]