Quadra Safe Trading Strategy - I

[SavantGarde]

Please note from today switching to Spot charts for BankNifty & Nifty

NIFTY Spot 02-05-2012

BANKNIFTY Spot 02-05-2012

SG

 

[timepass]

Just 2-3 sessions more, for 50 days from the 5630 mark, when all the other MAs (except 50EMA) got bent like a flexible pipe because of a single session..

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Satyen,

a) What is the worst case scenario according to you ???

b) Initial S/L or Trailing S/L might get jumped...If the Trigger price to release the Trailing or Initial S/L is big enough we might be able to curb some part of the worst case scenario.... !!!

c) I have manually backtested NF from inception which is almost 12 years, if you have some idea about the worst case scenario other than what I have mentioned at point (b) ...Do let me know.....!!!

d) Just as any system will have it's Win/Loss Ratio so does Quadra...!!!

e) Only thing that can keep a Trader/Investor Safe from worst case scenario of S/L getting jumped is Position Sizing and for that matter I have not even come to 'Adds', 'Scaling Out' among other things yet to be discussed...!!!

Suggest you go through the Charts NF-1 to NF-23 and the Excel sheet uploaded again....if possible even more critically than I have....!!!

Worst performance one will notice when going through the Excel is 5 alternate Losses starting from Cell (D78), below is the image of the Excel I am talking about...!!!

SG

Dear SG Sir and Annat Sir with due respect i want to contradict this point ...

i.e something has not happened in past does not gurantee that it will not happen in future ....

I have remeber in 315 thread they have tested years of data they did not got whipsaws more than 3/4 times but now they are facing whips of 6/7 or more times which is really frustating ...(May be i am wrong but read some where in their thread )

So Sir my point is there should be a hypothetical worst case scenario that may not happenned in past but we should know what can be possible worst thing happen to the system and what are the remadies etc

Hope I am not cotradicting much but this is just a thought please consider it


Regards
Satya

 

[SaravananKS]

Agreed. Basically, you are re-affirming that there is no holy grail; that any strategy should be flexible enough to incorporate changes in trading practices; that a strategy may become stale over time and constantly needs tweaking. Ok.

Yes, Since Last 50 Days Market is moving either side any trend following system may not perform well. I am still searching an indicator which indicates either trend will happen or not .
IMO Multiple MA is one of best to predict but there are equal chance of failture:lol:

 

[SavantGarde]

Agreed. Basically, you are re-affirming that there is no holy grail; that any strategy should be flexible enough to incorporate changes in trading practices; that a strategy may become stale over time and constantly needs tweaking. Ok.

TP....if you do come across or read about some great traders.....you shall discover a successful Trader will never change his Strategy that he is used to....at best the trader will incorporate some tweaks to an existing one....But will never change his Trading strategy....!!!

SG

 

[SavantGarde]

Yes, Since Last 50 Days Market is moving either side any trend following system may not perform well. I am still searching an indicator which indicates either trend will happen or not .
IMO Multiple MA is one of best to predict but there are equal chance of failture:lol:

Saravanan.... why can't Traders be patient for a Trend to emerge....!!!

SG

 

[jlmalhotra]

This really sir is most difficult part of trading.

 

[jlmalhotra]

Saravanan.... why can't Traders be patient for a Trend to emerge....!!!

SG

This really sir is the most difficult part of trading.

 

[Rish]

TP....if you do come across or read about some great traders.....you shall discover a successful Trader will never change his Strategy that he is used to....at best the trader will incorporate some tweaks to an existing one....But will never change his Trading strategy....!!!

SG[/QUOTE

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

100% perfect, follow a strategy and do failure analysis, definitely strategy will give sure success.

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

 

[timepass]

TP....if you do come across or read about some great traders.....you shall discover a successful Trader will never change his Strategy that he is used to....at best the trader will incorporate some tweaks to an existing one....But will never change his Trading strategy....!!!

SG

Agreed, again. But there is no "one size fits all" strategy. A successful generally doesn't define one formula for all his scrips, unless he is trading only a few scrips. Also, as both of us mentioned in our posts, some tweaks may be needed from time to time